Chiefs at 49ers, Week 7 preview
Chiefs at 49ers, Week 7 preview
Super Bowl rematch!
Super Bowl rematch, anyone? The Kansas City Chiefs (5-0) and San Francisco 49ers (3-3) go at it this Sunday afternoon in what is essentially a primetime game given that it will be nationally televised on FOX. On paper, this is the biggest game of the season. Let’s see if it lives up to the hype.
Key game details
Location: Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif.
Date: Sunday, Oct. 20
Time: 3:25 p.m. CT / 1:25 p.m. PT
Network/streaming: FOX
Radio: 96.5 The Fan, Chiefs mobile app
Broadcasters: Kevin Burkhardt, Tom Brady
Referee: Alan Eck
Spread: Chiefs 1- to 1.5-point underdogs
Weather: Approx. 75°, partly cloudy, up to 7 mph winds, chance of rain 1%
Injury reports from Thursday
Thanks to Chiefs reporter Matt McMullen for the report.
The Chiefs’ injury report looks solid after the bye, not counting the fact that they’re missing their top two receivers (Hollywood Brown and Rashee Rice) for the rest of the season, plus running back Isiah Pacheco for another month or two. Wideout JuJu Smith-Schuster appearing on the report is a new development, and that will be a close one to monitor given his increased role from a couple weeks ago.
The Niners’ injury list is a mile long and features some big names. It’s likely concerning for San Francisco that two of its kickers aren’t practicing. WRs Deebo Samuel and Jauan Jennings are worth monitoring as well considering both have had success against the Chiefs in past games.
Notable storylines for Week 7
Super Bowl(s) rematch
As we all know, the Chiefs beat the 49ers in Super Bowl LIV (2019-20) and Super Bowl LVIII (2023-24). Not only that, but the Chiefs blew out the Niners in the 2022 regular season — the Niners haven’t beaten the Chiefs at all since 2014. You have to think San Francisco has this game circled on its calendar and is absolutely itching to get a win over K.C.
Given the revenge theme of this game, I’d say this one is more important for the Niners than it is the Chiefs. Sure, K.C. will treat this game as an important one. But the Chiefs are undefeated, and a loss to an NFC squad won’t hurt much in the long run. Meanwhile, the 49ers are 3-3 and compete in a tough division — dropping under .500 wouldn’t be ideal. Plus, they simply have everything to prove when it comes to facing the Chiefs. A loss for them would be much more devastating than a loss for Kansas City.
This game could determine what Chiefs do at trade deadline
The Chiefs did not trade for WRs Davante Adams or Amari Cooper despite fan calls for them to do so. There are still options out there — Jets’ Mike Williams, Panthers’ Diontae Johnson or Titans’ DeAndre Hopkins, to name a few — but there’s a chance K.C. simply decides to stand pat.
This game seems like it will determine whether the Chiefs stick to what they’ve got or seek a trade. Because, let’s be real, a good offensive game against the New Orleans Saints from two weeks ago, or a possible big game against the Las Vegas Raiders next week aren’t that impressive. The Chiefs won’t face teams like that in the playoffs — they’ll face teams like the Niners. If the offense can’t get the job done against San Francisco, it’ll be clear that the Chiefs need help against higher competition.
Battle of the GOAT tight ends, part V
This is the fifth matchup between Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce and 49ers TE George Kittle, the two best tight ends in the NFL. Both players have had success against each other’s respective squads, though Kittle was a noticeable non-factor in Super Bowl LVIII with only two catches for four yards. We’re all well aware of the Chiefs’ struggles vs. tight ends this season, and Kittle has had a tremendous year so far with five touchdowns in five games.
I bet Kittle feels like he has something to prove in this game, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go off. But Kelce has something to prove as well, with 2024 being sort of a slow season for him. Kelce has at least 90 yards in three of his last four games against the Niners, so he’ll look to continue that streak of success in this beast of a matchup.
Benny & The ‘Buy-Ins’: Higher/Lower Picks for Chiefs at 49ers on Underdog Fantasy, by Ben Heisler
LAST WEEK’S RECORD: 1-1
OVERALL RECORD: 6-8
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Kareem Hunt 14.5 receiving yards - HIGHER
I’ll admit I thought Hunt might be washed as he made his return to K.C., but his play has been solid, notably his 22 percent missed tackle rate. While his rushing number of 49.5 yards seems reasonable, I buy into more value on the board in his receiving yards total, especially given the 49ers’ issues to opposing backs in the passing game (42 YPG).
Hunt was on the field for 50 percent of snaps in Week 5, and has only had more time to integrate back into the offense following the bye. KC’s offense trusts him when he’s on the field, and with the 49ers’ issues in tackling this year (sixth-worst in the NFL), Hunt could make a few guys miss on short dump-off and clear this line easily.
George Kittle longest reception 20.5 yards - LOWER
Have the Chiefs had some issues in slowing down athletic tight ends this year? Yes, but in the case of Kittle, I think they can contain him to avoid some of the big plays. That likely means a bit more volume underneath, so his stat line might still look nice, but the Chiefs’ defense still has top 10 in opponent yards/play. Kittle could end up with a 6/65 type stat line, but I don’t anticipate a massive deep YAC opportunity that clears this number on Sunday.
Harrison Butker 1.5 field goals made - HIGHER
This is the equivalent of the “free space” on the bingo card. Butker has attempted 2+ field goals in every game this year, only failing to go higher in Week 4 vs. the Los Angeles Chargers. Over each team’s last three games, the 49ers are bottom nine in field goal attempts allowed/game, while the Chiefs rank top two in attempts.
Between the 49ers’ inconsistencies on defense so far in 2024, and the Chiefs’ ongoing concerns at receiver, they’ve been more likely to trust Butker to deliver. It’s also a close projected game, with the Chiefs as underdogs for the first time all season, so it could come down to an end of game kick for K.C. as well.
Chiefs-49ers matchup history
The Chiefs lead the all-time series 9-7 over the Niners dating back to 1971. Two of those victories were Super Bowls, meaning the two squads are tied 7-7 in the regular season.
The last time the Chiefs and 49ers played…
Well, you know. The Chiefs beat the 49ers 25-22 in overtime to win Super Bowl LVIII on February 11, 2024, to complete the dynasty. It’s crazy enough that the Chiefs beat the Niners in the Super Bowl twice in five years, but add the fact that the Chiefs were down by 10 points in both games and, well, you have a lot of sad Niners fans.
The best Chiefs-49ers game ever was…
The answer to this question depends on if you prefer Super Bowl LIV or Super Bowl LVIII, as both were awesome games (even removing the fact that the Chiefs won both). Super Bowl LIV was great in the sense that it was the Chiefs’ first championship in 50 years, but Super Bowl LVIII was an emotional rollercoaster after the up-and-down season K.C. had in 2023. I’m partial to Super Bowl LVIII as my favorite Chiefs Super Bowl victory among their four, but I wouldn’t argue too hard against LIV being the best one, either.
Chiefs-49ers prediction, picks
The Chiefs have the advantage of coming off a bye and being the healthier squad, but this one still has the potential to be close.
Will the Chiefs beat the Niners?
I think the Chiefs squeeze out a win thanks to the defense, which did a pretty good job against quarterback Brock Purdy and the Niners back in February. I don’t expect a high-scorer from the K.C. offense, which has had red-zone issues and seems to be relying more on the running game lately.
Will the Chiefs cover the spread?
Given that the Chiefs are 1- to 1.5-point underdogs, I expect them to cover and win. With the spread so low, if you’re betting on the Chiefs to cover you may as well bet on them to win straight up.
Wes’ pick: Chiefs 23, 49ers 20