Chiefs vs. Buccaneers, Week 9 preview

Monday Night Football, baby.

The Kansas City Chiefs (7-0) are back on Monday Night Football to face off against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4). 2021 was the last time the Chiefs faced a squad led by quarterback Baker Mayfield, who is 0-3 against K.C.

Key game details

Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo.
Date: Mon, Nov. 4
Time: 7:15 p.m. CT / 8:15 p.m. ET
Network/streaming: ESPN, ABC
Radio: 96.5 The Fan, Chiefs mobile app
Broadcasters: Joe Buck, Troy Aikman
Referee: John Hussey
Spread: Chiefs 8.5 to 9-point favorites
Weather: Approx. 65°, cloudy, up to 12 mph winds, chance of rain 96%

Injury reports from Thursday

List comes from Chiefs reporter Matt McMullen.

Seeing quarterback Patrick Mahomes on the injury list is always scary, but he appears to be fine after tweaking his ankle against the Las Vegas Raiders last week. The ones to really watch for on the Chiefs’ list are cornerback Nazeeh Johnson, who was supposed to replace Jaylen Watson after he went down for the season, and receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster, who had an explosive game in Week 5 before getting hurt. It’s good to see defensive end Mike Danna practicing, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him miss this game.

The Bucs are pretty beat up, with receivers Chris Godwin and Mike Evans both missing this game (Godwin will be out for the rest of the season).

Notable storylines for Week 9

D-Hop (mostly) knows the playbook now

The Chiefs eased in their newest offensive asset, receiver DeAndre Hopkins, last week, giving him 23 of 72 offensive snaps. Hopkins earned three catches for 29 yards in his Chiefs debut. With another week of practice under his belt, Hopkins should be more familiar with the team’s playbook now, meaning he’ll probably earn more snaps in Week 9. Could this be a breakout game for Hopkins?

Will Joshua Uche get time?

The Chiefs’ newest defensive asset is set to debut against the Bucs. Don’t be surprised if he earns a similar workload to Hopkins’ last week. It should be exciting to see how the Chiefs use Uche in their scheme given that defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo loves to call all sorts of creative blitz packages. Mixing him in and keeping the other defensive linemen fresh will be the key.

Injuries stack up at CB

After Watson broke his leg, his replacement was supposed to be Johnson. However, Johnson sustained a concussion in Week 8, leaving his status in doubt for Monday. With those guys out, the Chiefs turned to Joshua Williams and Christian Roland-Wallace to mixed results. Williams has been up and down throughout his career — he has the size and raw skills to succeed but can be beaten (often deep) by more talented receivers. Luckily for him he won’t have to go up against Evans or Godwin this weekend, so ideally he should succeed against more mid-tier competition.

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Benny & The ‘Buy-Ins’: Higher/Lower Picks for Chiefs vs. Bucs on Underdog Fantasy, by Ben Heisler

LAST WEEK’S RECORD: 2-1
OVERALL RECORD: 8-12

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Cade Otton: 4.5 receptions (HIGHER)

With the injuries to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, Otton has seen his target share balloon for Tampa over the past several weeks. Against the Ravens and Falcons, Otton has seen 20 targets, wracking up 17 receptions and 181 yards in change. For as terrific as the Chiefs defense is, it still struggles to contain tight ends, allowing the second-most fantasy points to the position in 2024.

If you want to take advantage of the Red Zone Rush promotion offering 20 percent on touchdowns, Otton is a terrific selection to add to your Underdog card as well.

Travis Kelce: 0.5 rush + rec touchdowns (HIGHER)

Speaking of boosts, here’s another opportunity to up your winnings, but with a Chiefs player instead!

With DeAndre Hopkins taking over the Rashee Rice role as the go-to possession receiver, Kelce’s opportunities in the middle of the field have once again opened up. Since early October, 8-7 has finally looked like the Kelce of old, with 70+ yards and seven or more receptions in three of his last four games, and gets a Bucs defense that’s been gashed all season. Via Derek Brown of FantasyPros, the Bucs have allowed, “six different tight ends to accumulate more than 40 yards in their last five games, while giving up multi-touchdown performances to opposing tight ends in each of their last two games.”

Kareem Hunt: 69.5 rushing yards (LOWER)

The matchup and game script should theoretically bode well for Hunt in this spot, but I’m going to fade it for a few different reasons.

The first is he’s just not getting the extra push to pick up chunk plays. His broken tackle rate has been very good, but over his last four games his yards-per-carry keeps shrinking (4.8 in his first to 2.8 last week).

He’s also dealing with a quad injury that shouldn’t keep him out on Monday night, but in the event that it’s still bothering him, we could see a little more of a rotation with Carson Steele and Samaje Perine to keep him fresh for more games down the stretch.

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Chiefs-Bucs matchup history

The Chiefs and Bucs have played each other just 15 times dating back to 1976. The Bucs lead the all-time series 8-7, including a Super Bowl win over Kansas City.

The last time the Chiefs and Bucs played…

The Chiefs beat the Bucs 41-31 on October 2, 2022. It was sort of a revenge game after K.C. was whooped by Tampa Bay in Super Bowl 55 back in the 2020-21 season. The score implies the game was closer than it actually was — truthfully, the Chiefs went up early and coasted the rest of the way. Chiefs running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire was the star of that day, rushing for 92 yards while earning two total touchdowns.

The best Chiefs-Bucs game ever was…

There haven’t been many bangers between these two teams — they’ve mostly been lopsided affairs. One notable close game was back in 1986 when the Bill Kenney-led Chiefs took down the Steve Young-led Bucs 27-20. Chiefs legend Stephone Paige had a nice outing that day, earning 86 yards and a score.

Chiefs-Bucs prediction, picks

Some say the Chiefs have to lose at some point, and I tend to agree. However, I don’t think this is that point.

Will the Chiefs beat the Bucs?

The Chiefs should win this game, partially thanks to Tampa missing its top two wideouts. Spags has typically put together good game plans against Mayfield, too — the QB has thrown an interception in each game against the Chiefs and has been sacked five times. Obviously, those were different teams at different times, but Spags should be able to continue to generate pressure against Mayfield and prevent Tampa from racking up points.

Will the Chiefs cover the spread?

The Chiefs have surprisingly covered the spread in five of seven games this season, though four of those five were spreads of five or fewer points. The Chiefs are 1-2 against spreads of six or more points this season. That said, the Bucs defense is susceptible to the pass up the middle where the Chiefs thrive, and is allowing the fourth-most points per game (29.4). Mix that with a banged up Bucs offense, and you have just the right recipe for the Chiefs to cover the nine-ish-point spread.

Wes’ pick: Chiefs 27, Bucs 17