4 Ways the Chiefs Offseason Strategy Changed at the NFL Combine

Re-evaluating the offseason landscape after the Combine.

The Kansas City Chiefs entered the NFL Combine as the have for the past several years: with cap space to play with in free agency and picking at the end of each round of the draft. Whlie Brett Veach and company will keep some of their current free agents — looking at you, Orlando Brown, Jr — and will inevitably restructure and rework contracts to get under the cap, the abundance of positions to fill in the 53-man roster has made this offseason a little bit different.

Coming out of the combine, several aspects of the team have all but been confirmed. Brown is expected to catch the Chiefs’ franchise tag while a long-term contract is settled. Tyrann Mathieu, Charvarius Ward, and Byron Pringle are all expected to hit free agency — and may have played their last snaps as Chiefs. Frank Clark is also still currently on the roster, but Veach indicated that he would not be playing on his current deal in 2022 — if he’s retained at all.

However, there are several not-so-obvious (or obvious to some) aspects of the offseason that may have been impacted by the Combine and the conversations around it. As is always the case, NFL owners, general managers, and agents meeting in one place causes the rumor mill to churn. Coupled with draft prospect interviews and testing, the offseason landscape may have become a bit clearer. With that said, let’s take a look at 5 ways the Chiefs plans may have shifted coming out of the combine.

#1 - The QB Class isn’t benefitting the Chiefs

It’s no secret that this quarterback class is weak — both in free agency and in the draft. With Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers likely staying with their current teams, the conversation this week shifted to Jimmy Garoppolo and Mitchell Trubisky to try to fill some of the empty spots. On top of that, no quarterback placed their stamp on the draft as a “must have” prospect this week in the throwing drills — leaving QB-needy teams without much of a path forward in 2022.

The Chiefs don’t really care much about the quarterback group as it pertains to them, but it is hugely important to their offseason plans. If the free agent class is strong, money flows through that position and reduces some of the cap (and cash) that teams can allocate to improving their team. If other franchises can’t play as hard in the open market, the Chiefs (theoretically) could see less competition and less money flowing to the type of player the Chiefs are targeting.

When the free agent pool is poor, that can drive QB-needy teams to prioritize quarterbacks near the top of the draft to get “their guy”. Unfortunately, the “guys” at the top of the draft this year are fewer than normal — and it only got smaller coming out of the combine. Coming out of the throwing drills, Kenny Pickett and Malik Willis were the only plyaers to really garner headlines. If those players are the only two taken in the first round — which could easily be the case — it would be the first time in seven years that three quarterback selections didn’t push a player down the draft order.

After this weekend at the Combine, it’s become abundantly clear that the Chiefs are going to be dealing with more competition in free agency and less players on their draft board when they pick due to a lack of quarterbacks. Veach and company may have to be even more aggressive in trading up or handing out contracts to fill out a roster lacking in some position group, because they’re not going to get the help they have in recent history from QB-needy teams.

#2 - Sign a WR, Draft a WR, or do both!

There have been a plethora of quality receivers entering the league over the past several years, and that’s led to an opposite problem to the quarterback conundrum — there are choices to be had for the Chiefs. While Mike Williams is expected to be staying in Los Angeles, one of the bigger rumors to come out of the combine was Amari Cooper being on the outs in Dallas. It’s a strong free agent class at the receiver position, and one that might not break the bank due to the strength of the recent draft classes.

The 2022 wide receiver class might be even better than previous years after watching the combine performances. Most of the round one talents solidified their claims (George Pickens, Chris Olave), while other day two players staked their own claims as early contributors (Christian Watson, Skyy Moore, Alec Pierce) by testing out-of-this-world.

The Chiefs need a consistent presence at wide receiver opposite of Tyreek Hill — who should have an extension signed any day now — and this is likely the best group of players to fill it. Targeting a strong “X” wide receiver in free agency would be prudent, pairing Hill with another quality player to take the focus off of him in the secondary. With the strength of the draft class, it would almost make sense to take another receiver on day two to insulate Patrick Mahomes and the offense with weapons for the forseeable future.

#3 - The EDGE group has more questions than answers

It’s expected that Frank Clark will either be released this offseason or his time in Kansas City will be up soon. Melvin Ingram is rumored to be a mid-offseason signing for a team — even with interest existing from the Chiefs. The in-house options are unproven or lack the kind of pass rush impact needed to make Steve Spagnuolo’s defense work. It’s clear that something needs to be done to give the Chiefs a higher ceiling at defensive end for the next several years.

Unfortunately, the EDGE group at the combine didn’t have the same kind of excitement about the “middle-tier” as the receiver group did. The top performers were mostly early picks expected to be gone before the Chiefs are on the clock — especially with the lack of top-end talent at the top of the draft. The rest are mostly viewed as “projects” that will need some time to develop into the three-down players that also fit the criteria Spagnuolo would want in a defensive end.

The free agency class is potentially even more problematic, as it’s largely older, more expensive veterans. The Chiefs will need to address multiple positions this offseason on the defensive side of the ball, so signing higher-cost, short-term contracts will not make fitting things under the cap easier. The hope was that some more rumors of defensive ends on the move — or a stronger performance in the mid-tier of draft-eligible players — would help to solve the position in Kansas City. Unfortunately, this week seems to have just clouded the market and raised more questions for the Chiefs.

#4 - It’s a good year to rebuild Spagnuolo’s cornerback room

The Chiefs haven’t made a significant investment in the cornerback position in the Brett Veach era. It’s not been an overarching issue through that time period, but there have been times where it’s cropped up and scheme adjustments that have been needed to counteract the lack of investment. With Ward on his way to free agency — and a lack of consistent play outside of L’Jarius Sneed on the roster — the team needs to add bodies to the position. Fortunately for them, the market should have plenty to offer this year.

J.C. Jackson should help re-set the market at the position, especially now that he’s rumored to hit the open market in free agency. James Bradberry and Marshon Lattimore are also rumored to be on the trade block, and Carlton Davis would fit well within Spagnuolo’s scheme. If the Chiefs wanted to spend to add a true “number one” corner, they’ll have their options. By letting Ward test the market, the Chiefs either believe they can fill the position in the draft — or they’re willing to pony up a bit more than Ward’s contract in the free agent market.

With that said, this group of cornerbacks in the draft should compliment a number one cornerback addition. With a new player on the outside — and Sneed playing there full time — the Chiefs can target some of the physical athletes that are lacking length in the middle of the draft to play in the slot. This cornerback class is one of the shortest-armed classes in recent history, which will limit their effectivity on the boundary. However, their physical nature, explosiveness, and fluidity would fit perfectly for Spagnuolo’s nickel position. Players like Roger McCreary, Trent McDuffie, and Marcus Jones would normally cost premium assets at the position — but their lack of length could drive them further into day two than expected.

The Chiefs haven’t invested heavily in the cornerback position, but the way the offseason is shaping up, there’s a path toward a significant upgrade in talent and athleticism that actually fits what’s rumored to be on offer leaving the Combine. With Mathieu testing the market, a shift in organizational structure on the back end of the defense will likely be needed. Despite lacking a plethora of options, focusing on the cornerbacks may be the way to acheive that shift while fitting the Chiefs’ style on defense.