A Tough Row to Hoe

The latest newsletter from KCSN Sports Data Scientist, Joseph Hefner.

The NFL schedule system is absolutely brilliant at its goal of making games in the latter half of the year relevant. NFL teams play 17 regular season games every year. 14 of those are set in stone: 6 games against divisional opponents, 4 games against a rotating AFC division, and 4 games against a rotating NFC division. You can look ahead for a decade and know 14 of the Chiefs’ 17 games in 2033.

It's the other 3 games (and will be 4 games if we ever switch up to an 18-game season) where the brilliance lies. The Chiefs won the AFC West, so we play the division winners in the AFC South (Jags) and AFC North (Bengals), plus the division winner in the NFC East (Eagles). The Broncos, on the other hand, who ended up 4^th in the AFC West, get to play the division losers for the AFC South (Texans), AFC North (Browns), and NFC East (Commanders).

Essentially, good teams play good teams, and bad teams play bad teams in these three extra games. Obviously, sometimes division winners/losers will over or under-perform the following season, so it’s not perfect, by any means. But by and large, this system ensures that good teams face a harder schedule than bad teams do. That means good teams are more likely to have an extra loss, and bad teams to have an extra win or two. That can make a major difference in the relevance of games late in the season.