Chiefs at Bills, divisional round preview

Mahomes vs. Allen, playoffs part III. Our notes and picks for the week.

Kansas City Chiefs. Buffalo Bills. Divisional round. This looks familiar. This time, however, it’s in Buffalo country.

Key game details

Location: Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y.
Date: Sunday, Jan. 21
Time: 5:30 p.m. CT
Network/streaming: CBS, Paramount+
Radio: 106.5 The Wolf, Chiefs mobile app
Broadcasters: Jim Nantz, Tony Romo
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Betting line via DraftKings: Chiefs +2.5 (+100), ML +124
Weather: Approx. 18°, cloudy, 15 mph winds, chance of snow 7%

Injury reports from Thursday

Shout out to the great Matt McMullen for these injury reports.

Chiefs

Despite the length, the Chiefs’ injury report looks pretty good at this point in the season, at least compared to their opponent’s. It seems like defensive tackle Derrick Nnadi is on track to miss this game, but the rest of the Chiefs’ squad has potential to be healthy for this one. That includes receivers Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney and Justyn Ross, three guys who missed last week’s game.

Bills

Buffalo’s injury report isn’t as encouraging. The Bills could be out several starters this weekend, and receiver Stefon Diggs popping up on the report midweek isn’t a great sign for them.

Notable Chiefs storylines for the divisional round

Mahomes vs. Allen, part VII/part III

It’s the seventh matchup overall between these two and the third in the playoffs. They’re 3-3 against each other, with Mahomes holding the 2-0 postseason advantage. The pressure is truly on Allen to win this one given that he hasn’t done anything noteworthy in the postseason thus far in his career — the furthest he’s gone is the AFC Championship Game in 2020 when he was blown out by K.C. This game is a chance for Allen to take the next step in his legacy, but it’s also a chance for Mahomes to show the world that, even in a “down” year, he’s still the man.

Mahomes’ first road playoff game

Mahomes has played in 15 postseason games in his career, and none of them were on the road (unless you count Super Bowl LV, which was sort of a road game). That’s absolutely nuts, but I’m also not sure it’s that big of a deal considering Mahomes’ road success. On the road, Mahomes actually has a better winning percentage (.776 to .766), more yards per game (306.8 to 284.9) and a better touchdown-to-interception ratio (119-33 to 100-30). He’ll be focused for this one, even if the crowd is hostile.

Cold and snow… again

It’s supposed to snow in Buffalo again this week, and this game will be super cold, just like last week’s games for both teams. The Chiefs and Bills are pretty used to playing in the cold at this point, so it’s tough to say whether either team will truly be affected. But the weather and wind could affect play styles — maybe both teams prioritize the running game?

Chiefs-Bills best bets

Last week I hit on my prediction of it being an “Isiah Pacheco game,” so I hope many were able to cash out on Pacheco’s hot streak. I missed on the Mahomes and Mecole Hardman picks, and my Raheem Mostert pick had absolutely no chance due to the defense shutting down Miami’s running game.

Chiefs moneyline (+124) OR Chiefs +2.5 (+100)

I’m feeling the Chiefs in this game. We don’t get them often as underdogs with plus money, especially in the playoffs. If you’re feeling as confident in K.C. as I am, go ahead and hit the moneyline. If you’re on the fence, the +2.5-point spread still allows you to double your money while accounting for a potential close game.

Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco anytime TD (+115)

I’m going to keep smashing these Pacheco props every chance I get. He has a score in each of his last five games, and this is the first time the Bills will truly get a full dose of Pacheco. Pop was inactive earlier this season against Buffalo, and only had two carries against the Bills last season — the Chiefs didn’t really mix him into the offense much until a few weeks after that game. I’m not sure the Bills are ready for him. Another solid play is Pacheco over 60.5 rushing yards, though the -120 juice is a little steep.

Chiefs K Harrison Butker over 1.5 field goals made (+105)

I’m not sure why this is set so low because Butker is almost guaranteed at least two field goal attempts in a game. He has attempted two or more in 11 of 18 games this season including four of his last five, and has only missed two field goals all season. Even in bad weather, his range is still pretty long — it was 48 yards in last week’s game according to the team.

Bills QB Josh Allen anytime TD (-115)

An Allen rushing touchdown is almost a guarantee. He’s rushed for a TD in 13 of 18 games this year, including six of his last seven. The Chiefs may put a spy on him but he’s such a tough runner that that may not even do the trick. And with the Chiefs’ cornerbacks locking guys down, Allen may need to find himself picking up yards on his own this Sunday.

Chiefs-Bills matchup history

The Bills lead the all-time series 29-24-1 over the Chiefs dating back to 1960. Buffalo is also 3-2 vs. K.C. in the postseason, though they’re 0-2 vs. the Mahomes-led Chiefs in the playoffs.

The last time the Chiefs and Bills played…

The Bills beat the Chiefs 20-17 on December 10, 2023. That game sort of summed up the Chiefs’ offensive struggles during the regular season — a middling game overall, and a potential game-winning touchdown which featured tight end Travis Kelce lateraling the ball back to Toney nullified by an offsides call. It was one of those “let me get that one back” games for K.C.

The best Chiefs-Bills game ever was…

I talked about this in my Week 14 preview last month:

C’mon. You know the one. The aforementioned 13-second game. On January 23, 2022, in the divisional round of the playoffs, the Bills went up by three with just 13 seconds to go in the game. All hope was lost, until Mahomes found tight end Travis Kelce down the middle for 25 yards. Kicker Harrison Butker nailed the field goal to send it to overtime, and then Mahomes and Kelce sealed it with a touchdown.

Chiefs-Bills prediction, picks

Like I said, I’m feeling the Chiefs. Am I supposed to be impressed that the Bills beat Mason Rudolph last week? Allen is still prone to throwing picks (he threw two of them against Miami two weeks ago) and the Bills’ defense, which is banged up, is susceptible to allowing big plays underneath, which is how the Chiefs thrive offensively.

Will the Chiefs beat the Bills?

I do think K.C. will win, though it should be a close game. The Bills weren’t all that impressive when they beat the Chiefs last month, and their top offensive star (Diggs) was shut down. Plus, this time the Chiefs have Pacheco, who has been their biggest offensive playmaker this season not named Mahomes.

Will the Chiefs cover the spread?

Since the Chiefs are underdogs and I’m picking them to win, then yes, I think they’ll cover. Either way, this could come down to the wire, so spotting the Chiefs 2.5 to 3 points is already an advantage for K.C. against the spread.

Wes’ pick: Chiefs 23, Bills 20