Chiefs at Bills, Week 11 preview
Mahomes vs. Allen, part VIII.
Ready for another classic? The Kansas City Chiefs (9-0) and Buffalo Bills (8-2) matchup in Week 11 surely has potential to be one. Not only is it a rematch of last year’s divisional round, but it also has major stakes in the race for this year’s AFC No. 1 seed.
Key game details
Location: Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y.
Date: Sunday, Nov. 17
Time: 3:25 p.m. CT / 4:25 p.m. ET
Network/streaming: CBS
Radio: 96.5 The Fan, Chiefs mobile app
Broadcasters: Jim Nantz, Tony Romo
Referee: Land Clark
Spread: Chiefs 2 to 2.5-point underdogs
Weather: Approx. 50°, partly cloudy, up to 6 mph winds, chance of rain 16%
Injury reports from Thursday
List comes from Chiefs reporter Matt McMullen.
The size of the Chiefs’ injury report is initially alarming, but a closer look shows that only three players won’t play: running back Isiah Pacheco and defensive lineman Charles Omenihu, who both returned from injured reserve this week and are on track to play soon, and kicker Harrison Butker, who unexpectedly was placed on IR this week and will miss at least four games.
The story is similar for the Bills, who have a long report but only a few names to focus on: right tackle Spencer Brown and tight end Dalton Kincaid, whose chances of playing look slimmer by the day, and receiver Keon Coleman, who has already been ruled out for this week. Wideout Amari Cooper is one to watch, too, but it looks like he’s on track to play.
Notable storylines for Week 11
Mahomes vs. Allen, part VIII
Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is 4-3 against Bills QB Josh Allen. However, it’s safe to say the Bills have Mahomes’ number in the regular season — Mahomes is 1-3 vs. Buffalo there compared to a 3-0 record vs. the Bills in the playoffs. Not only that, but his regular season play isn’t as good — Mahomes has a 7-5 TD-INT ratio vs. Buffalo in the regular season vs. an 9-0 ratio (including rush touchdowns) in the postseason.
Allen, meanwhile, has played consistently well across the board against the Chiefs in his career, though that hasn’t always translated to wins. In their last matchup in the 2023-24 divisional round, Allen was more effective with his legs (72 yards, two TDs) than his arm (186 yards, one TD). That tracks with how strong K.C.’s defense has become over the last year, but it will be interesting to see if Allen has similar struggles vs. the K.C. defense or if he’ll be able to exploit the team’s weaknesses at cornerback and linebacker.
JuJu returns
Barring a setback, it looks like Smith-Schuster will return this Sunday after missing three games. He was super effective in Week 5 vs. the New Orleans Saints, earning 130 yards on seven receptions. Assuming he plays, he could take up the Rashee Rice role by snagging short passes across the middle. How will this affect K.C.’s usage of DeAndre Hopkins? Will they use him on the outside more, or possibly on deep/jump balls?
Harrison Butker out
Butker’s left knee injury seemed to come out of no where. He’ll miss at least a month, so to replace the league’s most effective kicker the Chiefs signed Spencer Shrader from the New York Jets’ practice squad. Shrader went undrafted in 2024 out of Notre Dame, and has participated in two regular season games. So far he is 2-for-2 on field goals and 3-for-3 on extra points. During the preseason, he went 2-for-2 on field goals (including a 56-yarder) and 2-for-2 on extra points.
While Shrader’s numbers look good so far, the sample size is small. The hope is he can be accurate enough for the Chiefs to get by over the next month. Considering how often the Chiefs play tight games, there’s a solid chance at least one game comes down to his leg in the coming weeks.
Left tackle woes
Last week, Chiefs left tackle Wanya Morris got injured and his replacement, rookie Kingsley Suamataia, was, well, horrendous. Suamataia allowed seven pressures on 34 opportunities, which led to three hits, three hurries and a sack. While Morris has been shaky at times, he’s at least been serviceable. The good news is that Morris is tracking to play this weekend, but if he ends up hurt again, the Chiefs may have to consider signing someone off the street.
Benny & The ‘Buy-Ins’: Higher/Lower Picks for Chiefs at Bills on Underdog Fantasy, by Ben Heisler
LAST WEEK’S RECORD: 2-1
OVERALL RECORD: 12-15
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Bills QB Josh Allen: 0.5 rush + receiving TDs (HIGHER)
In the seven games Allen has played against Steve Spagnuolo’s defense, he’s averaged 10.1 rushing attempts for 56.1 rushing yards per game. He’s also found his way into the end zone in four of those seven games.
So why play the higher variance touchdown number rather than his rushing yards? I think both are in play, but given his tendency to take off against Kansas City (11.2 rushing yards/game in his last five games and double digit attempts in all five), I’d rather roll the dice to get a much higher payout on the anytime touchdown.
Allen may also be without his top red zone option in Kincaid this week, giving him more of a reason to take it upon himself to reach the end zone.
Bills RB James Cook: 59.5 rushing yards (LOWER)
The Chiefs have been rock solid, if not elite against slowing down opposing running backs this year. Via FantasyPros, the Chiefs have allowed the fewest yards per carry (3.17), as well as the fewest total carries per game (16.6).
Cook has been excellent all year, and cleared this number in his last matchup vs. Kansas City, but it was only by 1.5 yards, and on 18 carries against a run defense unit with much worse numbers.
I see Cook being more active in the passing game, giving us a nice number to fade on the ground.
Chiefs RB Kareem Hunt: 14.5 longest rush (LOWER)
Last week, I wrote about fading Hunt by way of his total rushing and receiving yards. Naturally, he went from having five total catches in his first four weeks, to racking up seven last Sunday vs. the Broncos.
This week, I’m back to fading Hunt, but the volume just doesn’t seem to dissipate. He’s still getting a ton of snaps, plenty of action, and the yards keep coming as a result of it.
This week, however, I’m going against him breaking off a big run vs. Buffalo. The Bills’ defense used to be a sieve as a run funnel unit, but it’s improved this year. Hunt, meanwhile, returned back to the trajectory of not even 3 YPC last week. He remains tough to bring down, so there’s always the chance he breaks one off, but I’ll trust the numbers here and go against that happening.
Chiefs-Bills matchup history
55 games have been played between the Chiefs and Bills dating back to 1960. Buffalo currently leads the all-time series 29-25-1, though Kansas City leads in the postseason with a 4-2 record.
The last time the Chiefs and Bills played…
The Chiefs won a nail-biter in the divisional round of the 2023-24 playoffs, 27-24, on January 21, 2024. It was a grind, and may not have been as close as the final score ended up if Chiefs WR Mecole Hardman wouldn’t have fumbled the ball on the Bills’ one-yard line in the fourth quarter. Despite that mistake, Kansas City prevailed due to strong defensive play.
The best Chiefs-Bills game ever was…
I wrote this in last year’s Bills game preview:
C’mon. You know the one. The 13-second game. On January 23, 2022, in the divisional round of the playoffs, the Bills went up by three with just 13 seconds to go. All hope was lost until Mahomes found tight end Travis Kelce down the middle for 25 yards. Kicker Harrison Butker nailed the field goal to send it to overtime, and then Mahomes and Kelce sealed it with a touchdown.
Chiefs-Bills prediction, picks
The Chiefs are banged up, undefeated and have nearly clinched a playoff spot already. The same is true for the Bills, but Buffalo has to be desperate to beat the Chiefs (like everyone else).
Will the Chiefs beat the Bills?
I think the Chiefs drop this game. It’s not that I think the Bills are the better team — I don’t think they are. But it’s obvious that K.C. has limited their creative game plans against the Bills during the regular season in the past. Simply put, this game doesn’t mean quite as much to the Chiefs, who would still have the No. 1 spot even with a loss.
Of course, having that tiebreaker would be nice, but the Chiefs’ schedule doesn’t look bad down the stretch outside of the tight two-game stretch of the Houston Texans and Pittsburgh Steelers. Buffalo, meanwhile, still has the San Francisco 49ers and the Detroit Lions on their docket — I don’t see them running the table.
It’s not that the Chiefs won’t try — of course they will — but this is a game in which I think they try to get by. The Bills, meanwhile, will try to exploit the Chiefs’ weaknesses at left tackle, cornerback and coverage linebacker.
Will the Chiefs cover the spread?
As a two-point underdog, I think the Chiefs could certainly cover the spread considering games between these two squads are typically close. My guess is the Chiefs lose by a field goal, though don’t be surprised if it’s closer than that.
Wes’ pick: Bills 23, Chiefs 20