Chiefs at Broncos, Week 18 preview
One more tune-up game before the big ones.
The Kansas City Chiefs (15-1) are effectively done with the regular season, but have one more game to go against the Denver Broncos (9-7) in Week 18. Plenty of Chiefs will rest, but Denver is still playing for the AFC’s final playoff seed, meaning this game still has stakes.
Key game details
Location: Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colo.
Date: Sunday, Jan. 5
Time: 3:25 p.m. CT / 2:25 p.m. MT
Network/streaming: CBS
Radio: 96.5 The Fan, Chiefs mobile app
Broadcasters: Jim Nantz, Tony Romo
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Spread: Chiefs 10 to 10.5-point underdogs
Weather: Approx. 36°, partly cloudy, up to 5 mph winds, chance of rain 1%
Injury reports from Thursday
Image below from Chiefs reporter Matt McMullen.
This is a rest week for the Chiefs who have already clinched the No. 1 seed. That makes the injury report a bit misleading because guys like quarterback Patrick Mahomes, tight end Travis Kelce and defensive lineman Chris Jones won’t play regardless of their injury statuses.
The most notable name on the Chiefs’ list above is actually receiver Mecole Hardman, whose practice window opened this week after spending some time on injured reserve. He won’t play this week, but there’s a good chance he’s available for the divisional round of the playoffs.
Notable storylines for Week 18
Chiefs starters rest, backups get to play
This is essentially a preseason game for the Chiefs, so plenty of starters will sit. Outside of the obvious (Mahomes, Kelce, Jones), others like cornerback Trent McDuffie and running back Isiah Pacheco should rest, among others. Some starters like receiver DeAndre Hopkins and center Creed Humphrey may play on a limited basis in order to hit certain contract incentives.
With starters resting, it’s backup QB Carson Wentz’s time to shine. The added plus to being able to play the backup QB for the final week is that he can get some much-needed playing time in order to stay sharp in case he has to come in during the postseason. It will be fun to see if Wentz can lead K.C. to a win this week.
Chiefs can ruin somebody’s playoff hopes
No matter what happens, some fanbase will likely be annoyed with the Chiefs this weekend. Not that that’s really different from any other week, but this week is particularly interesting because the Chiefs can potentially do one of two things: either ruin the Broncos’ playoff hopes by beating them, or ruin the Cincinnati Bengals’ playoff hopes by losing to Denver. As much as it would be fun to kill the postseason dreams of a division rival, being the reason why Cincinnati misses the playoffs would be hilarious.
Chiefs might get a good look at D.J. Humphries
Coach Andy Reid implied that left tackle D.J. Humphries is healthy enough to play in this game, though it’s up in the air whether he starts and/or sees a hefty amount of playing time. Still, just seeing Humphries out there is a good sign for his availability in the playoffs.
The big question stemming from Humphries presence is whether he’ll start in the postseason or whether the team will stick with Joe Thuney at LT while Mike Caliendo plays left guard. The Thuney-Caliendo combo seems to be working well, but if Humphries comes in and has a good game against Denver, K.C. might decide to throw him back into the mix full time. At the very least, having several available left tackles is a good problem to have.
Benny & The ‘Buy-Ins’: Higher/Lower Picks for Chiefs at Broncos on Underdog Fantasy, by Ben Heisler
LAST WEEK’S RECORD: 2-1
OVERALL RECORD: 25-22
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Xavier Worthy continued his torrid play, so fading him unfortunately knocked us out of the big money for Week 17. Nevertheless, we still went 2-1, and have now gone 10-2-0 since Week 14. Can we kick off January in similar fashion?
*NOTE: As of Friday, January 3 at noon CT, Chiefs players on Underdog have yet to be released…
Courtland Sutton: 73.5 receiving yards (HIGHER)
Sutton is 82 receiving yards away from hitting a $2 million bonus, so we get a bit of wiggle room to navigate his target share from Bo Nix with the Chiefs not having anything to play for (except deciding the fate of the last AFC seed).
The concern is what happens if the Broncos get off to a comfortable lead. Will they rest Sutton to keep him healthy for the playoffs? I think if anything, the Chiefs play Denver close in the first half, and then things likely open up in the second half, forcing Sutton to play more than the Broncos would typically like. Nevertheless, this feels like the rookie QB doing his veteran receiver a solid, provided the game is out of reach.
Keep an eye out for “number of targets” popping up as a play on Underdog this week as well.
Will Lutz: 1.5 field goals made (HIGHER)
While double-digit inches of snow are projected in K.C., the forecast in Denver is supposed to be much improved. Mile High already provides a bit of a boost to the kicking game, and with precipitation unlikely, Lutz should be called upon more frequently to add some points on the board for a Broncos offense that should move the ball easier on K.C.’s backups throughout the game.
Marvin Mims: 0.5 1st quarter receiving yards (HIGHER)
Mims had his best performance of the season in Week 17, catching all eight of his targets for 103 yards and two scores. He’s also been used as receiver and rusher out of the backfield at least once in their last seven games as well.
Point being, it’s advantageous for Denver to get Mims involved right away, and they’ve used him in motion in the short passing game to take advantage of his speed. Look for Sean Payton and Bo Nix to do the same on Sunday.
Chiefs-Broncos matchup history
Denver is the Chiefs’ third-most frequent opponent since 1960 with 129 games played. Kansas City leads the all-time series 73-56, which includes an 0-1 playoff record.
The last time the Chiefs and Broncos played…
K.C. beat the Broncos 16-14 on November 10, 2024, which was Week 10 of this season. That game will end up being one of the Chiefs’ most memorable wins of recent memory due to the ending — down two points, the Broncos attempted a 35-yard field goal with one second to go. The kick was blocked by Chiefs linebacker Leo Chenal, allowing K.C. to get the last-second W.
One of the best Chiefs-Broncos games was…
On November 16, 1997, when the Chiefs went down 22-21 against a John Elway-led Broncos team with two minutes to go in the game. QB Rich Gannon and RB Marcus Allen led K.C. down the field, and kicker Pete Stoyanovich managed to hit a 54-yard field goal for the 24-22 win.
Chiefs-Broncos prediction, picks
These Week 18 rest games are always tough to predict given the uncertainty around the starters’ availabilities. That said, the Chiefs have usually been competitive in rest games, so I’d expect this to be a closer game than anticipated.
Will the Chiefs beat the Broncos?
I’m picking the Broncos to win due to the stakes being so much higher for them, plus the Chiefs resting starters. Not that the Chiefs’ backups aren’t good, but I see this as a trial week for them to test out a few things and get players their contract incentives instead of actually trying to win. Keep in mind that Wentz has a winning record as a starter in the NFL, so this won’t be a cakewalk for Denver by any means.
Will the Chiefs cover the spread?
I do think the Chiefs will cover — the 10/10.5-point line is rather strong even with K.C. resting players. This should be a competitive game that could come down to the wire once again.
Wes’ pick: Broncos 24, Chiefs 20