Chiefs at Broncos, Week 8 preview

The Chiefs face the Broncos... again! Our notes and picks for the week.

It’s been a whole two weeks since the Kansas City Chiefs (6-1) have played the Denver Broncos (2-5), so why not run that back one more time.

The Chiefs hope to extend their apparently never-ending winning streak vs. the Broncos to 17, while Denver is looking to gain some momentum and jump back in the AFC West race before it’s too late.

Key game details

Location: Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colo.
Date: Sunday, Oct. 29
Time: 3:25 p.m. CT
Network/streaming: CBS, Paramount+
Radio: 106.5 The Wolf, Chiefs mobile app
Broadcasters: Kevin Harlan, Trent Green
Referee: Brad Allen
Betting line via DraftKings: Chiefs -7 (-115), ML -325
Weather: Approx. 30°, partly cloudy, 9 mph winds, chance of snow 16%

Injury reports from Thursday

Chiefs

Did not practice: LB Nick Bolton (wrist), K Harrison Butker (illness), RB Jerick McKinnon (groin)

Limited participants: None

Full participants: S Mike Edwards (elbow), WR Justin Watson (elbow)

Game designations: Will release Friday afternoon

Bolton won’t play Sunday after sustaining a dislocated wrist during the team’s win over the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 7. He’ll be out until at least December. Despite being listed as a full participant, it seems unlikely that Watson plays as well.

The additions of Butker and McKinnon to the injury report is a bit concerning. McKinnon was downgraded from full participation on Wednesday, which suggests there may have been a setback with his injury. Butker just popped up on the injury report with the illness, so hopefully he’s able to shake that off quickly.

Broncos

Did not practice: None

Limited participants: OT Garett Bolles (hip), WR Brandon Johnson (hamstring)

Full participants: LB Baron Browning (wrist), S Justin Simmons (hip), RB Dwayne Washington (knee)

Game designations: Will release Friday afternoon

The Broncos are pretty healthy entering this game, though Bolles is one to monitor — he’s had a good year so far.

Notable Chiefs storylines for Week 8

No Nick Bolton

As mentioned earlier, Bolton won’t play, which means the Chiefs will use linebacker Drue Tranquill in his place for the foreseeable future. Luckily, Tranquill was a sneaky-great signing by the Chiefs this offseason, as he has filled in nicely when needed. Tranquill can be inconsistent as a run defender, but has superior coverage skills and is quick to the point of attack when rushing the passer.

A Travis Kelce repeat?

After a slow start (for his standards), tight end Travis Kelce has been on fire the last couple of weeks. He totaled 303 yards and one touchdown through his last two games, with 124 of those yards coming against Denver. The question is, can he keep it up? Well, probably. That’s what he does.

Continuing the streak

16 straight games for the Chiefs. We’re approaching a decade of the Chiefs continuously beating the Broncos. The last time Denver beat K.C.? Sept. 17, 2015. That weekend, Patrick Mahomes was still on Texas Tech slinging it against Arkansas. The streak has reached Undertaker levels of iconic that we may have to start capitalizing “streak” soon.

Snow-game guy?

Quarterback Patrick Mahomes considers himself a “snow-game guy,” which is good because this matchup may be a snow game (weird for October, right?). It’s supposed to snow late Saturday/early Sunday, but could continue into Sunday afternoon. Hopefully more snow means more angry runs for running back Isiah Pacheco.

Chiefs-Broncos best bets

To recap last week, I hit on the receiving yards overs for Pacheco, McKinnon and receiver Rashee Rice. I also hit on Kelce’s anytime touchdown (that was an easy one), but completely whiffed on the Kelce under 72.5 yards. He had over double that. Lesson learned: Never underestimate a Kelce.

Chiefs DL Charles Omenihu OVER 0.25 sacks (+165) AND/OR DL Chris Jones OVER 0.75 sacks (-160)

Omenihu returned from his six-game suspension with a great Chiefs debut, earning four pressures and a sack. In order to hit the over on his sack prop this week, he only needs half of a sack. That’s worth betting on, especially with plus-odds. Jones would need a full sack (or two half sacks) to meet his over, but that’s worth a gamble considering he has at least one sack in five of six games this season.

Broncos QB Russell Wilson UNDER 205.5 passing yards (-115)

The Chiefs’ defense held Wilson to 95 passing yards two weeks ago. Wilson has also gone under the 200 mark four times this season, including each of the last three weeks. And if Bolles is banged up, it’ll be that much harder for Wilson to find success against this strong Chiefs D.

Chiefs WR Rashee Rice OVER 41.5 receiving yards (-125)

As long as Rice keeps producing, keep smashing his overs. He’s hit his over in each of the last five weeks, and averages 66 yards receiving in the last two weeks. Denver will be so focused on Kelce after his last couple of games that Mahomes will have no choice but to feed Rice in the slot.

Broncos team total UNDER 19.5 total points (-110)

If you consider the fact that one of the touchdowns scored by the Detroit Lions in Week 1 was off a pick-six, then the Chiefs’ defense hasn’t given up more than 20 points in a game this season. Sure, the Broncos could match that 20, but will they? Denver’s offense has been stagnant the last few weeks and put up just eight points against K.C. two weeks ago. It seems doubtful the Chiefs will hold them to under 10 again, but under 20? I could see it.

Chiefs-Broncos matchup history

Following the Chiefs’ Week 6 win over Denver, Kansas City holds a 72-55 record over their AFC West rival dating back to 1960. As mentioned before, the Chiefs currently own a 16-game winning streak over the Broncos.

The last time the Chiefs and Broncos played…

… was literally two weeks ago. The Chiefs beat the Broncos 17-8 on Oct. 12. Mahomes put up 306 yards passing but the Chiefs had trouble finishing drives. Luckily, the Chiefs’ defense shut the Broncos down, holding them to zero points until the fourth quarter.

The best Chiefs-Broncos game ever was…

Well… Two weeks ago I mentioned one of my favorite Chiefs-Broncos games: when the Chiefs beat the Broncos 19-10 on Thanksgiving in 2006. Well, let’s think of another goodie… How about on Christmas Day 2016 when former Chiefs defensive tackle Dontari Poe threw a touchdown pass to seal a 33-10 win?

Chiefs-Broncos prediction, picks

It’s tough to analyze this one. These teams just played each other. Just, like… Watch that game? In all seriousness, I don’t expect this to be much different from the game two weeks ago, except the Broncos have a bit less to lose and the Chiefs are a bit better on offense.

Will the Chiefs beat the Broncos?

Yes, the Chiefs should win, though Denver will likely pull out everything it can to prevent its losing streak from extending further. This is Denver’s Super Bowl. I’m not sure that will matter, though, because I don’t expect the K.C. offense to stall as much as it did two weeks ago.

Will the Chiefs cover the spread?

The Chiefs are surprisingly good at covering the spread this season, going 5-2 ATS. Despite this one being in Denver, I’m actually surprised the line is so short (at -7) for the Chiefs. I think they could win this by 10 if they play a solid game offensively.

Wes’ pick: Chiefs 27, Broncos 17