Chiefs at Browns, Week 15 preview
The rare Sunday nooner for the Chiefs.
The Kansas City Chiefs (12-1) and Cleveland Browns (3-10) face off in a rare Sunday noon game for the Chiefs. Kansas City has the AFC West locked up, so now the team turns its head toward capturing the No. 1 seed. If things fall the right way, K.C. could have it locked up by Christmas.
Key game details
Location: Huntington Bank Field in Cleveland, Ohio
Date: Sunday, Dec. 15
Time: Noon CT / 1 p.m. ET
Network/streaming: CBS
Radio: 96.5 The Fan, Chiefs mobile app
Broadcasters: Ian Eagle, Charles Davis
Referee: Tra Blake
Spread: Chiefs 4 to 4.5-point favorites
Weather: Approx. 43°, partly cloudy, up to 16 mph winds, chance of rain 88%
Injury reports from Thursday
Image below from Chiefs reporter Matt McMullen.
Left tackle D.J. Humphries not practicing for two days doesn’t bode well for his chances to play Sunday. If he can’t go, Wanya Morris will jump back into that spot like he did last week after Humphries went down.
The Browns’ list is lengthy, but many of the limited names are likely to play. Tight end David Njoku is one to monitor closely.
Notable storylines for Week 15
Another trap game?
The Chiefs have had several “trap” games on their schedule this season — Raiders in Week 8, Panthers in Week 12, to name a few — and they’ve managed to sneak past those teams with wins. This is another trap game in the sense that the Chiefs could be looking ahead — they have the Houston Texans coming up next Saturday and the Pittsburgh Steelers the following Wednesday.
The “one game at a time” approach K.C. has adopted has kept the team from falling into those traps, however. The Chiefs have found ways to win games no matter the hurdles or injuries this season. It’s doubtful that they’re looking ahead — that’s just not something they seem to do. So the Chiefs likely won’t take the Browns lightly. Fans shouldn’t either — despite the 3-10 record, Cleveland has recent victories over the Steelers and Baltimore Ravens. They have the talent to beat good teams.
Left tackle woes continue
It’s looking rough for Humphries’ chances to play, which is unfortunate given that he didn’t even get a full game under his belt before heading back to the injury report. We all know the issues Morris has had this season, and his presence is even more scary considering Cleveland has defensive end Myles Garrett, who is second in the NFL in sacks with 11.
The Chiefs really need this W to maintain their No. 1 position in the AFC, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see Morris on a short leash this Sunday. If quarterback Patrick Mahomes gets hit often, look for left guard Joe Thuney to slide over to LT while Mike Caliendo replaces Thuney in the guard spot.
Rainy game = pound the ball?
I don’t know about you, but every week when I watch the Chiefs I scream at my TV for them to run the ball. The run game worked so well in the first half of the season, but coach Andy Reid seems to abandon it as soon as the opposing defense makes one good stop.
Running back Isiah Pacheco is back with two games under his belt, and he’s fresh. Samaje Perine is looking good as well, and Kareem Hunt has had a chance to rest the last couple of weeks with just 12 total carries. With this game set to be a windy, rainy day, it’s the perfect time to pound the rock. Give Pacheco the long-yardage situations due to his explosive ability, and allow Hunt to take the short-yardage gains due to his balance. Mix in Perine on third downs and passing sets. The Chiefs have a super talented running back squad — it’s time to use it.
Benny & The ‘Buy-Ins’: Higher/Lower Picks for Chiefs at Browns on Underdog Fantasy, by Ben Heisler
LAST WEEK’S RECORD: 2-1
OVERALL RECORD: 18-21
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We were one Justin Herbert rushing attempt away from a clean 3-0 sweep in Week 14! Let’s see if we can stay hot as the Chiefs head to Cleveland.
Jerome Ford: 25.5 rushing yards (HIGHER)
The Browns’ run game used to be their bread and butter. Nick Chubb would dominate the line of scrimmage, opening up play action for some big plays downfield in Kevin Stefanski’s offense.
This year, they’re finally trying to get back to it, knowing a solid run game can possibly limit some of Jameis Winston’s turnover-prone tendencies in the process.
So why Ford instead of Chubb? One key reason is Ford has been better, and they’re starting to use him more even as Chubb recovers from his injury that cost him the first half of the season. His usage rate has gone up, including double-digit caries at Denver and Pittsburgh, while also clearing his rushing yards projections in three straight games.
Also, via my friends at Rithmm, their projection on Ford comes in at just over 40 yards, nearly a 71.7% difference-to-market, or DTM.
Xavier Worthy: 46.5 rush/rec yards (HIGHER)
Worthy remains a bit of a week-to-week gamble, but in this matchup, I could see the Chiefs getting more creative in using his skillset to their advantage.
Via FantasyPros, the Browns play the third-highest single-high rate in the NFL at just under 64%, and as the great Derek Brown points out, since Week 9, vs. single-high defenses, Worthy sees plenty of volume with a 14.6% target share, including a 13.6% first-read share.
Whether it’s a deep shot against a suspect and injured secondary, or an end-around, I like the Chiefs to find Worthy on a few big plays, and rack up some major yards after catch, or just from scrimmage overall.
Dustin Hopkins: 1.5 field goals made (LOWER)
Kickers in the NFL are a lot like MLB closers. One year you might have everything working, and then you might lose it all together the next.
Hopkins is a prime example. After a career 2023 season for the Browns, he’s missed a career-high nine field goals this season, and now faces an above-average Chiefs squad in what appears to be crummy weather in Cleveland on Sunday afternoon. Temperatures are in the low to mid 40s with an 80-85% chance of rain.
With bad weather, a Browns team as a home underdog, and a kicker already on thin ice, I have major hesitations about him being called upon more than few times to help keep this game close.
Chiefs-Browns matchup history
The Chiefs and Browns have played each other 28 times dating back to 1971, and K.C. leads the all-time series 15-11-2. One of those wins for the Chiefs came during the 2020-21 playoffs.
The last time the Chiefs and Browns played…
It’s been a while — the Chiefs beat the Browns 33-29 on September 12, 2021. Baker Mayfield was still the QB for Cleveland, and current Chiefs RB Kareem Hunt was on the Browns as well. Hunt went for 61 total yards and a touchdown in that game. Meanwhile, Mahomes threw for 337 yards and earned four total touchdowns. Mahomes’ main target was former Chiefs receiver Tyreek Hill, who absolutely shredded Cleveland’s D for 197 yards and a score.
One of the best Chiefs-Browns games was…
The aforementioned playoff game on January 17, 2021, was a good one, mainly because it showed that Hennething is possible. Mahomes went down midway through the third quarter with concussion-like symptoms, forcing backup QB Chad Henne to come in with the Chiefs up 19-10. The Browns eventually scored and the Chiefs later led 22-17. Thanks to a strong defensive effort and a good showing by Henne (including an awesome scramble followed by a fourth-down game-winning pass), K.C. was able to hang on for the win.
Chiefs-Browns prediction, picks
I find it interesting to note that Browns QB Jameis Winston has never faced a Chiefs-led Steve Spaguolo defense, but he did face Spags’ defenses in 2015 and 2017 against the New York Giants. He was 1-1 against Spags in those games.
Will the Chiefs beat the Browns?
I think the Chiefs win this game due to defense. It’s gonna be a rainy, messy game, so I see Cleveland trying to pound the rock a bit. The Chiefs’ run defense is strong, though, which could force the ball into Winston’s hands. I see the Chiefs blitzing Winston hard on passing situations, and Winston is prone to making mistakes. The Browns simply aren’t going to win if he turns the ball over.
Will the Chiefs cover the spread?
Surprisingly, yes, I think the Chiefs will cover the 4/4.5-point spread. The Chiefs haven’t covered in the last seven games, but many of those spreads were either much larger or against much tougher opponents — this game carries a good combination of being a shorter spread and against a much weaker opponent.
Wes’ pick: Chiefs 20, Browns 13