Chiefs at Chargers, Week 18 preview

It's Blaine's time to shine. Our notes and picks for the week.

With the AFC West and No. 3 seed locked up, the Kansas City Chiefs (10-6) have essentially what amounts to a preseason game in Week 18 against the Los Angeles Chargers (5-11). But that doesn’t make the game unexciting — Chiefs fans will get a closer look at some players who haven’t had a chance to contribute much in 2023.

Key game details

Location: SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif.
Date: Sunday, Jan. 7
Time: 3:25 p.m. CT/1:25 p.m. PT
Network/streaming: CBS, Paramount+
Radio: 106.5 The Wolf, Chiefs mobile app
Broadcasters: Spero Dedes, Adam Archuleta
Referee: Scott Novak
Betting line via DraftKings: Chiefs +3.5 (-112), ML +150
Weather: (Dome) Approx. 60°, clear skies, 21 mph winds, chance of rain 0%

Injury reports from Thursday

Chiefs

The Chiefs’ massive injury list this week isn’t as concerning as it looks. Plenty of players are getting some much-needed rest as the team plans to sit several starters. The only player with the “did not practice” designation from Thursday that will likely play is receiver Kadarius Toney. Players like quarterback Patrick Mahomes, running back Isiah Pacheco, tight end Travis Kelce, cornerback Trent McDuffie and linebacker Nick Bolton probably won’t play either.

The only way some of the guys listed above would play is either due to wanting to play for contract incentives or for stat reasons. For example, Kelce may want to play since he needs just 16 receiving yards to hit 1,000 on the season — that’d be his eighth-straight 1,000-yard season.

Chargers

The Chargers don’t have anything to play for. In fact, it’s probably in their best interest to lose in order to earn a higher draft pick. Several of their starters will be out, including receiver Keenan Allen and linebacker Joey Bosa. Others may sit as well.

Notable Chiefs storylines for Week 18

Blaine Gabbert gets the nod

Backup quarterback Blaine Gabbert will get his first start with the Chiefs, and his first start overall since 2018. It’s nice to see him get action because we’ve seen Mahomes get hurt in the playoffs in the past. Giving Gabbert a little work before the postseason will be a nice way to get him into the groove in case he needs to enter a playoff game in an emergency situation.

Will Kelce play?

As mentioned before, Kelce needs just 16 yards to hit 1,000 for the season. That’d be eight-straight seasons with 1,000+ yards, a feat that not many have accomplished. Kelce may want to have that on his resume. But, ultimately, it’s up to Kelce on whether he plays. He may opt to sit and receive some well-deserved rest.

Justyn Ross/FAU SZN

Gabbert noted that WR Justyn Ross will earn plenty of playing time this weekend, while defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo mentioned that defensive lineman Felix Anudike-Uzomah will get an extended look. Both of those guys came into the 2023 season with quite a bit of hype, yet both have been rather quiet all season long. It’ll be awesome to see them put in work — maybe they’ll perform well and earn extra playing time in the playoffs. We’ll see.

Chiefs-Chargers best bets

1-for-3 again last week. I’ll admit that with many starters resting, this week’s game will be a super difficult one to bet on. Proceed with caution.

Chiefs moneyline +150

Right out the gate, the Chiefs moneyline is the best bet with this game. Sure, the Chiefs are resting starters, but keep in mind that the Chargers are, too. Plus, their quarterback is currently Easton Stick, not Justin Herbert. Their roster will be depleted just like Kansas City’s. Except they have absolutely nothing to play for, while the Chiefs are trying to keep their momentum going heading into the playoffs. I like K.C. straight up with a 1.5x payout.

Chiefs WR Justyn Ross over 0.5 touchdowns (+420)

Why not? Gabbert mentioned that Ross will play a lot. You think Gabbert won’t try a goal line fade to a 6-foot-4 receiver at some point in this game? Well, he should. The line here is too juicy to miss with a payout 4.2x your money.

Chargers under 18.5 points (+110)

The Chargers’ offense averages less than 14 points per game over its last seven. The Chiefs’ defense has allowed exactly 17 points in five of its last seven. Even with Chiefs’ defensive starters sitting, K.C’s defense is still pretty deep and good. And, like I said, the Chiefs are playing against Easton Stick. I’d bank on them keeping him contained for most of the game.

Chiefs-Chargers matchup history

The Chiefs lead the all-time series 68-58-1 over the Chargers dating back to 1960. Kansas City holds a four-game winning streak against them.

The last time the Chiefs and Chargers played…

The Chiefs beat the Chargers 31-17 on October 22, 2023 in Week 7. It was Mahomes’ most lucrative game of the season, earning 424 yards and four touchdowns, while the Chiefs’ defense had five sacks.

The best Chiefs-Chargers game ever was…

Like I’ve said with every AFC West matchup, there are probably too many to sift through and choose. However, one of my favorites was back on September 11, 2016. After the Chiefs went down 24-3 in the third quarter, former Chiefs QB Alex Smith hit former Chiefs (and current Dolphins) WR Tyreek Hill for the latter’s first-career touchdown.

Kansas City ended up catching up and the game went to overtime. Smith hit Kelce with a beautiful pass near the sideline and eventually ran the ball in the end zone himself for the win, 33-27.

Chiefs-Chargers prediction, picks

It’s always tough to predict games with several starters resting. However, K.C. has a deeper squad than L.A., especially on defense, and still has something to prove. The Chargers don’t even know who their head coach will be next year. I wouldn’t be surprised if L.A. is just ready to get the season done and over with.

Will the Chiefs beat the Chargers?

I actually think so, yes. There will be some experimenting on the Chiefs’ end with backups, but I think a lot of those guys are hungry to prove themselves. I’m sure the Chiefs will also rely on kicker Harrison Butker’s golden foot aplenty.

Will the Chiefs cover the spread?

Considering the Chiefs are the rare underdog in this game, and the Chargers have been bad (5-10-1) against the spread this season, then yes, K.C. should probably cover.

Wes’ pick: Chiefs 19, Chargers 16