Chiefs at Falcons, Week 3 preview
Back in primetime.
The Kansas City Chiefs (2-0) hit the road for the first time this season in Week 3. They’ll be back in primetime, this time for Sunday Night Football, to take on the Atlanta Falcons (1-1).
Key game details
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Ga.
Date: Sunday, Sept. 22
Time: 7:20 p.m. CT / 8:20 p.m. ET
Network/streaming: NBC, Peacock
Radio: 96.5 The Fan, Chiefs mobile app
Broadcasters: Mike Tirico, Cris Collinsworth
Referee: Tra Blake
Spread: Chiefs 3.5 to 4.5-point favorites
Weather: (Dome) Approx. 81°, cloudy, up to 3 mph winds, chance of rain 1%
Injury reports from Thursday
Shout out to Chiefs reporter Matt McMullen for the report.
The most important injuries heading into this game are the ones that do not show up on the above report. The Chiefs will be without running back Isiah Pacheco, who broke his fibula in Week 2 and will be out for six to eight weeks, and receiver Marquise “Hollywood” Brown, who is now out for the season after having surgery on his shoulder.
Notable storylines for Week 3
Chiefs’ running game without Pacheco
No Pacheco means the Chiefs will have a presumed running back squad of Carson Steele, Samaje Perine and Keaontay Ingram this Sunday, with a potential practice squad callup of newly-added veteran Kareem Hunt. It would be awesome to see Hunt make his Chiefs return this weekend, but that seems like a 50/50 shot with the Chiefs getting him back into game shape (and reacclimated with their offensive system).
Regardless, what will the RB split look like without Pacheco as the lead back? Steele has been the go-to relief back for handoffs up the middle and in short yardage situations, while Perine has been more of a third-down back who can block and catch dump-offs out of the backfield. With Pacheco gone, my guess is Steele gets the start and is the featured back, with Perine subbing in for a few more third-down situations than he’s had in the past two weeks. Think a 60/40 split in favor of Steele.
Will those guys see success? The sample size has been small, with Steele earning three yards per carry on just nine carries so far while Perine has three catches for 13 yards. This game will be a real test for both of them. The good news is that the Falcons defense has been vulnerable on the ground so far this year, allowing 161.5 yards rushing per game so far.
Will Travis Kelce emerge from early-season slump?
The Chiefs’ star tight end has gotten off to a slow start in 2024, earning just four catches for 39 yards and no scores. He did have a long catch that was called back due to a penalty last week, but even with that added he hasn’t been very Kelce-like. We can blame it on his almost-35-year-old age, or maybe it’s just the fact that defenses have been keying in on him.
For those wondering if all those years are catching up with Kelce, I wouldn’t get too worried just yet. Is he slowing down a bit? Sure. That’s expected. But the fact is that Kelce has shown up for the team when he’s desperately needed. That’s typically during the playoffs, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him shake off the doubters this weekend with the spotlight on the team yet again in primetime.
Chiefs defense vs. Falcons TE Kyle Pitts
The Chiefs’ coverage against TEs has been a problem through the first two weeks. In Week 1, K.C. allowed 125 yards and a touchdown to Baltimore Ravens TEs Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews. A week later, it gave up 150 yards to Cincinnati Bengals TEs Mike Gesicki, Erick All Jr. and Drew Sample. That’s 137.5 yards per game to TEs, who have been feasting against the Chiefs’ linebackers and safeties. We can’t put all the blame on LB Nick Bolton, either — guys like LB Drue Tranquill and safety Justin Reid have been victims of opposing TE success as well.
This Sunday, the Chiefs must face Falcons TE Kyle Pitts, who hasn’t exploded yet this year with a modest 46 yards and a score. However, Pitts has the talent to have a field day against the Chiefs if they don’t find a way to limit the big guys from slicing up the middle of the field.
Benny & The ‘Buy-Ins’: Higher/Lower Picks for Chiefs at Falcons on Underdog Fantasy, by Ben Heisler
LAST WEEK’S RECORD: 1-2
OVERALL RECORD: 3-3
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Patrick Mahomes: 4.0 Rushing Attempts - HIGHER
Evan Abrams from Action Network highlights that Mahomes is a perfect 6-0 on the road after throwing for fewer than 200 passing yards, with the Chiefs winning by nearly 16 points per game. With Kansas City’s running back situation in flux and Atlanta’s strong pass rush, expect Mahomes to take matters into his own hands (and feet). Last week, he had four carries for 29 yards against Cincinnati. Look for 1-5 to extend plays with his legs again this week.
Samaje Perine - 16.5 Receiving Yards - HIGHER
Joey Wright of The Football Guys notes Perine’s exceptional effectiveness when given double-digit touches over the past four seasons. This week, his receiving prop matches his rushing prop, thanks to his strong pass-protection skills and reliability as a speedy and reliable dump-off option for Mahomes in the flat. Perine led the NFL in yards per route run last year, so expect him to get his chances this week.
Ray-Ray McCloud III - 31.5 Receiving Yards - HIGHER
Surprise! McCloud III is second on the Falcons in receiving yards with 94 through two games and has been targeted a team-leading 12 times. With the Chiefs focusing on shutting down top receivers like Ja’Marr Chase a week ago, McCloud played nearly all snaps in the slot last week, being prioritized over studs like tight end Kyle Pitts. As long as he keeps performing, the Falcons will keep targeting him.
Chiefs-Falcons matchup history
We don’t see this matchup often. The Chiefs and Falcons have only played each other 10 times since 1972, with the Chiefs holding a 7-3 record over them.
The last time the Chiefs and Falcons played…
The Chiefs beat the Falcons 17-14 on December 27, 2020. It was a weird one, as the 13-1 Chiefs were coasting against a 4-10 Falcons team that had nothing to lose. Then-Chiefs WR Sammy Watkins threw an interception when attempting a pass to Mahomes. The game ended with a K.C. win after Falcons kicker Younghoe Koo missed a 39-yard field goal which would have sent the game into overtime had he made it.
The best Chiefs-Falcons game ever was…
Definitely the Chiefs’ 29-28 win over Atlanta on December 4, 2016. It featured one of the most memorable plays in recent Chiefs history: The Falcons scored a touchdown and went up 28-27 with a little over four minutes to go and opted to go for the two-point conversion. Then-Falcons QB Matt Ryan threw an interception to Chiefs legend Eric Berry, who took it to the house for two. It was the first-ever “pick two,” and allowed the Chiefs to go up 29-28 and eventually seal the game.
Chiefs-Falcons prediction, picks
The Falcons surprised me with their win over the Philadelphia Eagles last week, making me think this won’t be an easy W for K.C.
Will the Chiefs beat the Falcons?
The Chiefs should win this game, but it might be close. Atlanta has played some good defense so far this year and the Chiefs are short in both the WR and RB rooms. Until the new RB regime can get some games under its belt and receiver Xavier Worthy finds a consistent footing, I think the Chiefs offense will continue to find ways to simply get by.
Will the Chiefs cover the spread?
I wouldn’t put money on the Chiefs to cover with as tight as their games have been so far this year. Sure, they beat Baltimore by seven, but were dangerously close to losing by one. I think K.C. sneaks by in a close one, though knowing my betting luck lately, that means they’ll probably win this by 20.
Wes’ pick: Chiefs 23, Falcons 20