Chiefs at Jets, Week 4 preview

We break down key players, stats, picks and more as we look forward to watching Taylor Swift watch the Chiefs yet again.

Yet another anticipated clash between Patrick Mahomes vs. Aaron Rodgers has been halted due to an injury to the Jets’ quarterback, but the Kansas City Chiefs (2-1) and New York Jets (1-2) will face off on Sunday Night Football this weekend anyway.

After a one-point Week 1 loss against the Lions, the Chiefs are finally rolling with a win over the Jaguars and a blowout last week vs. the Bears. The Jets, meanwhile, are on a two-game losing skid after inexplicably beating the Bills in Week 1 despite losing Rodgers to an Achilles tear.

Key game details

Location: MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J.
Date: Sunday, Oct. 1
Time: 7:20 p.m. CT/8:20 p.m. ET
Network/streaming: NBC
Radio: 106.5 The Wolf, Chiefs mobile app
Broadcasters: Mike Tirico, Cris Collinsworth
Referee: Alex Kemp
Betting line: Chiefs -8.5 to -9.5
Weather: Approx. 70°, clear skies, 6-7 mph winds, chance of rain 1%

Injury reports from Friday

Chiefs

Did not practice: LB Nick Bolton (ankle), CB Jaylen Watson (shoulder)

Limited participants: DL Chris Jones (groin), WR Kadarius Toney (toe)

Full participants: S Bryan Cook (elbow), S Mike Edwards (bicep), LB Willie Gay (quad), TE Noah Gray (illness), CB Nic Jones (hand), QB Patrick Mahomes (ankle), RB Isiah Pacheco (abdomen), LT Donovan Smith (rib), CB L'Jarius Sneed (knee), WR Justin Watson (ankle)

Game designations: LB Nick Bolton (out), CB Jaylen Watson (out)

The Chiefs come into this game banged up, which isn’t a great sign considering we’re not even a quarter of the way through the season. Such is life in the NFL where players are always playing through some sort of nagging injury. The good news is most of the players listed above will play.

Jets

Did not practice: S Tony Adams (hamstring), OL Wes Schweitzer (concussion)

Full participants: OL Mekhi Becton (knee), RB Breece Hall (knee), K Greg Zuerlein (groin)

Game designations: S Tony Adams (out), OL Wes Schweitzer (out)

The Jets are much healthier coming into Week 4 (besides, obviously, not having Rodgers). Adams, who also missed Week 3, is a notable loss in their secondary.

Key players and matchups to watch in Week 4

RT Jawaan Taylor vs. the refs

Chiefs coach Andy Reid wasn’t pleased after the referees unfairly picked on Taylor in Kansas City’s Week 3 win over the Chicago Bears. Reid isn’t one to complain about the refs often, so when he does, the NFL should listen.

Eyes will be on Taylor and the refs in this game, especially since it will be on Sunday Night Football. The NBC broadcast crew, particularly Cris Collinsworth, were the ones who drew national attention toward Taylor’s pre-snap tendencies in Week 1. Will the refs continue to nitpick and throw flags on Taylor, or will there be more consistency?

WR Rashee Rice

People often say rookie receivers don’t see much immediate success in Reid’s offense, and they’re right, but Rice has been an interesting case. His offensive snaps have increased from 20 (31%) in Week 1 to 39 (51%) in Week 3, and he sneakily leads Chiefs receivers in targets and receptions. He also came just inches away from earning two touchdowns last week.

It seems that Reid is using Rice more and more, especially due to Rice’s run blocking prowess, though he also has a handful of drops so far this year. Keep a close eye on Rice’s usage in Week 4 — despite the drops, the trends show he’ll be featured even more.

KR/PR Montrell Washington

Last week I wrote that receiver/returner Richie James could be replaced as the team’s main returner, but that was before he ended up on injured reserve. With James out, former Broncos 2022 fifth-round pick Montrell Washington took over return duties. I have no idea why Denver gave up on Washington so soon (he was an awesome returner at Samford), but Denver’s loss is Kansas City’s gain.

In Week 3, Washington showed promise by earning 33 yards on three returns — an 11 yard average and nine more yards than James earned in six tries. Going over 10 yards per return is impressive, so it’ll be interesting to see if Washington can build upon last week’s performance in the return game.

Chiefs’ passing game vs. Jets’ secondary

Much has been said about the poor play of Jets quarterback Zach Wilson, who will likely struggle against the Chiefs’ strong defense. However, don’t sleep on the fact that New York has a darn good defense of its own. It won’t be a cakewalk for Mahomes, who has to face an elite Jets secondary which features All-Pro cornerback Sauce Gardner. The Chiefs may have made easy work of the Bears last week, but can they rack up the points against the Jets? Or will we see scoring struggles like Weeks 1 and 2?

Top stats to know

16.

It doesn’t seem like anyone outside of Kansas City circles is talking much about how good second-year defensive end George Karlaftis has been through three weeks. Maybe it’s because Chris Jones has taken much of the spotlight. Nonetheless, Karlaftis has earned 16 pressures so far, sixth-best in the NFL. He has been much quicker, more aggressive, and has figured out how to use his hands to maximize leverage against offensive linemen. The future looks bright for the Purdue product.

2.

Speaking of second-year studs, let’s not sleep on CB Trent McDuffie, who is one of just seven NFL players with multiple (2) forced fumbles. Plus, if you buy into Pro Football Focus’ grading system, you’ll be happy to know he’s PFF’s second-highest graded cornerback in coverage. Sure, grades can be helpful, but above all the eye test shows that McDuffie is a disruptor, and is quickly turning into this team’s best defensive back.

23.

Mahomes is about to break another Chiefs record. Business as usual. This time, it's the most rushing yards by a Chiefs quarterback. Mahomes needs just 23 yards to surpass former Chiefs legend Alex Smith. He can get that this week, right?

Chiefs-Jets matchup history

The Chiefs lead the all-time series over the Jets 20-19-1, dating back to 1960 when the teams were named the Dallas Texans and New York Titans, respectively. The Chiefs are 3-1 against the Jets under coach Andy Reid.

The last time the Chiefs and Jets played…

The Chiefs beat the Jets 35-9 on Nov. 1, 2020. Mahomes threw for five touchdowns while tight end Travis Kelce and former Chiefs receivers Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman each earned over 95 yards receiving and at least one touchdown.

The best Chiefs-Jets game ever was…

Historically, probably the 1969 AFL divisional round playoffs matchup. The Chiefs beat the Jets 13-6, with Chiefs great QB Len Dawson earning 201 yards and a touchdown, while the Kansas City defense picked off Jets QB Joe Namath three times. The Chiefs went on to win Super Bowl IV against the Minnesota Vikings.

Chiefs-Jets prediction, picks

Zach Wilson is tied for third in interceptions thrown and ranks 30th in passing yards per game, 33rd in QBR, 34th in passer rating, 34th in completion percentage, and has thrown two touchdown passes in three games. He’s been historically bad.

Will the Chiefs beat the Jets?

The Chiefs will win. It’d be a miracle for the Jets to win this game (or an epic failure for the Chiefs to lose). However, that doesn’t mean the Jets’ defense won’t make things tough. Just because the Chiefs beat up on the lowly Bears doesn’t mean the offense is magically fixed. Mahomes is still working on developing chemistry with his receivers, and the Chiefs are still figuring out how to even use those guys the correct way.

Will the Chiefs cover the spread?

I don’t expect this to be a major blowout, though it could turn into one if the Jets’ offense turns the ball over frequently. Don’t bet your life savings on the Chiefs to cover with such a huge betting line — stick to player props this week.

Wes’ pick: Chiefs 24, Jets 16