Chiefs at Packers, Week 13 preview
How will Patrick Mahomes fare in his first time playing at Lambeau? Our notes and picks for this week.
A December night game in Lambeau. Can it get any better? The Kansas City Chiefs (8-3) will take on the Green Bay Packers (5-6) in one of only two NFL stadiums older than Arrowhead this Sunday night.
Key game details
Location: Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis.
Date: Sunday, Dec. 3
Time: 7:20 p.m. CT
Network/streaming: NBC, Peacock
Radio: 106.5 The Wolf, Chiefs mobile app
Broadcasters: Mike Tirico, Cris Collinsworth
Referee: Brad Allen
Betting line via DraftKings: Chiefs -6 (-108), ML -250
Weather: Approx. 32°, cloudy, 7 mph winds, chance of rain 17%
Injury reports from Thursday
Chiefs
Did not practice: None
Limited participants: LB Nick Bolton (wrist), RB Jerick McKinnon (groin)
Full participants: S Bryan Cook (bicep), WR Skyy Moore (knee), WR Rashee Rice (foot), LT Donovan Smith (neck), CB L'Jarius Sneed (knee), WR Kadarius Toney (ankle/hip)
Game designations: Will release Friday afternoon
Coach Andy Reid mentioned that McKinnon has been bothered by his groin lately, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Chiefs running back miss another game. Bolton, meanwhile, won’t play, but seems to be on track for a return soon.
Packers
Did not practice: RB Aaron Jones (knee), WR Jayden Reed (chest), CB Robert Rochell (calf)
Limited participants: CB Jaire Alexander (shoulder), LB De'Vondre Campbell (neck), DL Kenny Clark (shoulder), TE Josiah Deguara (hip), RB A.J. Dillon (groin), S Rudy Ford (biceps), LB Rashan Gary (shoulder), CB Eric Stokes (IR, hamstring), WR Dontayvion Wicks (knee)
Full participants: CB Keisean Nixon (wrist), S Darnell Savage (IR, calf), DL Devonte Wyatt (heel)
Game designations: Will release Friday afternoon
The Packers have a lengthy injury report which is common for this late in the season. Reed has indicated that his chances of playing are good, but Jones’ chances of playing aren’t so promising.
Notable Chiefs storylines for Week 13
Is Rashee Rice a star now?
Week 12 was the rookie Rice’s breakout game. He grabbed eight catches for 107 yards and a score, thriving in a more simplified version of Reid’s offense. In the future, will we look back on that game as the day Rice broke out and became a star for the Chiefs? Time will tell, but things are looking up.
Chiefs can recapture the No. 1 seed
It’s that time of year to begin looking at playoff seeding, though things will remain a tad uneven until all teams complete their byes. The remainder of the AFC will have its bye in Week 13, including the Baltimore Ravens who currently own the No. 1 seed. However, the Chiefs can retake the top seed with a victory over the Packers. The Chiefs own a tiebreaker over the Ravens thanks to their 6-1 conference record vs. Baltimore’s 6-3 record.
Can WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling resurge against his former squad?
After a near-700 yard year in 2022, Valdes-Scantling has been a big disappointment in 2023 with just 248 yards. His dropped touchdown pass two weeks ago against the Philadelphia Eagles contributed to the Chiefs’ loss that night and will live in the minds of Chiefs fans for quite some time. Last week, MVS didn’t redeem himself, either — he had one catch for -1 yard. With MVS facing his former team, can he find his footing and rebound with a big catch/game?
Chiefs-Packers best bets
I went two-for-three last week, hitting on the linebacker Drue Tranquill over 7.5 tackles and Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby over 0.25 sacks. I whiffed on the Chiefs first half spread -5.5, as the Chiefs finally decided to be a second half team last week.
Under 42.5 total points (-108)
The Chiefs were on a six-game under streak against the total before last week’s win over the Las Vegas Raiders. The Packers have gone under in five of their last seven games. The potential for this one to go under speaks not only to the Chiefs’ shaky offensive performances, but also the Chiefs’ strong defensive outings.
Chiefs TE Travis Kelce to score anytime + KC Chiefs to win (+140)
Unfortunately, the Kelce anytime touchdown is not as much of a safe bet as it was during most of last season. Kelce has scored in 50 percent of his games this year, so this one is a coin flip. However, with quarterback Patrick Mahomes constantly looking Kelce’s way, it’s never a bad idea to take a flier on the best tight end in the league.
Packers WR Romeo Doubs anytime TD (+260)
Doubs has quietly been a good touchdown bet this year, scoring in six of 11 games with seven touchdowns total. +260 odds imply a 28 percent probability, but Doubs scores in 55 percent of his outings. It’s a good payout for a little better than a coin flip.
Chiefs-Packers matchup history
The Chiefs lead the all-time series over Green Bay with an 8-5-1 record dating back to 1967. Their first-ever matchup was Super Bowl I, which the Packers won 35-10. In recent times, the Chiefs are actually 1-2 against Green Bay under Reid, while they are 1-0 with Mahomes starting.
The last time the Chiefs and Packers played…
Kansas City beat the Packers 13-7 on November 7, 2021 (I was at that game — it was a nail-biter). The Chiefs’ offensive struggles that day are reminiscent of their struggles this season — Packers quarterback Jordan Love managed to throw for more passing yards (190) than Mahomes (166). The Chiefs’ defense did impress, though, with Sneed nabbing an interception.
The best Chiefs-Packers game ever was…
A classic 2003 matchup. The Chiefs were down 31-14 at one point in the third quarter. The Chiefs got back on the board with a Priest Holmes touchdown and a Jerome Woods pick-six off Packers legend Brett Favre. The Chiefs eventually tied things up and sent it to overtime, 34-34. To cap off the game, Chiefs QB Trent Green nailed WR Eddie Kennison for a 51-yard touchdown pass to win it.
Chiefs-Packers prediction, picks
This could be a defensive game, which should work in the Chiefs’ favor considering they have the better defense and the better offense. Green Bay may disrupt Mahomes in the pocket, but he’ll get his — plus, with RB Isiah Pacheco on a roll, the Chiefs could (and should) take advantage of the Packers’ questionable run defense.
Will the Chiefs beat the Packers?
Yes, the Chiefs will win. I’m confident in that, despite Love having a decent year with a budding group of skill position guys. Based on an 11-game sample size, the Chiefs likely only need to put up 21 or more points to win this one.
Will the Chiefs cover the spread?
As touchdown favorites, I think the Chiefs will cover this spread, though I wouldn’t put big money on it. While the Chiefs are 7-4 ATS this season, the Packers are 6-5 ATS with a big win over the Detroit Lions last week. Proceed with caution.
Wes’ pick: Chiefs 24, Packers 16
