Chiefs at Ravens, AFC Championship Game preview

Chiefs are back in the AFC 'ship. Check our notes and picks for this big one.

The Kansas City Chiefs are back in the AFC Championship Game for the sixth-straight season. What a time to be alive as a Chiefs fan. This time around, they’ll take on the No. 1 seed Baltimore Ravens, marking quarterback Patrick Mahomes’ second road playoff game in his career.

Key game details

Location: M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Md.
Date: Sunday, Jan. 28
Time: 2 p.m. CT
Network/streaming: CBS, Paramount+
Radio: 106.5 The Wolf, Chiefs mobile app
Broadcasters: Jim Nantz, Tony Romo
Referee: Shawn Smith
Betting line via DraftKings: Chiefs +4 (-110), ML +164
Weather: Approx. 44°, partly cloudy, 13 mph winds, chance of rain 62%

Injury reports from Thursday

Shout out to the great Matt McMullen for these injury reports.

Chiefs

The Chiefs’ injury report looks worse on the surface due to its length, but there are really only three players who toe the playing/not playing line: defensive tackle Derrick Nnadi, receiver Skyy Moore and left guard Joe Thuney. Moore hasn’t played for a while and could be a healthy scratch anyway. If Nnadi can’t go, a rotation will fill in for him, while Nick Allegretti will play for Thuney if necessary.

Linebacker Willie Gay seems to be in solid shape to play, but there could be a setback with his neck injury like last week. He’ll be one to monitor as well.

Ravens

The Chiefs’ string of luck playing beaten-up teams has run out, as Baltimore is very healthy. It looks like tight end Mark Andrews is back, too, which will make the Ravens’ already-strong offense that much more dangerous.

Notable Chiefs storylines for the AFC Championship

Stopping the run

If the Chiefs can’t stop the run against the Ravens, it will be really, really tough for them to win this game. The Ravens operate best when they run the ball efficiently. The Chiefs’ defense, meanwhile, allowed 4.7 yards per carry to the Bills last week and let QB Josh Allen run all over them. The Chiefs managed to keep Buffalo to 24 points which is good, but Baltimore has a much better defense than Buffalo, meaning the Chiefs’ defense will need to be extra tight against the Ravens.

Coach Andy Reid vs. coach John Harbaugh

After defeating Buffalo Bills coach Sean McDermott last week, Chiefs coach Andy Reid improved to 4-0 against his former disciples in the playoffs. Ravens coach John Harbaugh is another one of Reid’s former protégés — Harbaugh was Reid’s special teams coordinator and defensive backs coach for a while back in Philadelphia. Maybe Reid has an advantage, then, though Harbaugh has been coaching the Ravens for so long (since 2008) that the “protégé” angle might not matter at this point. Still, it’s worth noting that Reid is 5-2 against Harbaugh, including 4-1 as Chiefs coach.

Patrick Mahomes vs. Lamar Jackson mega showdown

The football gods blessed us with a great AFC quarterback matchup last week in Mahomes vs. Allen. Now we get Mahomes vs. Jackson, which should be a treat. Mahomes is 3-1 vs. Jackson, though it has been a while since these two have played — 2021, to be exact. It’s a guarantee that these two will bring out the best of each other.

Chiefs-Ravens best bets

4-0 on my picks last week. Those Isiah Pacheco props really are an easy hit.

Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco anytime TD (+125) and over 63.5 rushing yards (-115)

C’mon, you knew I’d stick with this. The Chiefs have realized that if they keep feeding Pacheco, good things happen (and hopefully they realize that this week even more instead of doing jet sweeps in the red zone). Pacheco scored in each of his last six games and averaged 84.5 rushing yards per game during that span. And while the Ravens don’t have a strong weakness on defense, their run defense can be exploited: It has allowed 4.5 yards per carry to RBs this season, good for sixth-most.

You could also consider Pacheco at 70+ rushing yards (+125) which provides a bit more juice for your bet, but it comes with a little extra risk.

Chiefs K Harrison Butker over 1.5 field goals made (-115)

This seems like a cheat code, so I’ll go ahead and suggest running this one back this week. The Chiefs aren’t the best red zone team, leading to frequent field goals. Butker is nails, so making two kicks seems probable. If you need stats to back this up, consider that Butker has made two or more field goals in 12 of 19 games this year, including in each of his last four.

Watch the injury report: Ravens TE Mark Andrews 40+ receiving yards (+105)

Andrews should be good to go for this game, but before you place a bet, keep an eye on the injury report just in case a setback occurs. Assuming he’s good to go, he should be a top target for Jackson. Andrews had 40+ receiving yards in eight of 10 games this season. The Chiefs are pretty solid against tight ends, but still allow an average of 44 yards per game against them, and allowed 45 to Bills TE Dalton Kincaid last week.

Chiefs-Ravens matchup history

The Chiefs lead the all-time series over Baltimore 7-5 dating back to 1999. K.C. has won four of the last five, but are 0-1 against Baltimore in the playoffs. The Chiefs were crushed 30-7 in that one playoff game in 2010-11 (though it did feature a pretty bitchin’ touchdown run from Chiefs great Jamaal Charles).

The last time the Chiefs and Ravens played…

The Ravens snuck past the Chiefs 36-35 on September 19, 2021. Honestly, the Chiefs had that game in the bag, running down the clock with under two minutes to go to set up a game-winning field goal. Unfortunately, Chiefs RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire put the ball on the ground, allowing Baltimore to recover for the win.

The best Chiefs-Ravens game ever was…

The best was probably the aforementioned one-point Chiefs loss. They’ve had some close ones in 2018, 2004 and 2003 as well, though none were quite the slobberknockers like the one in 2021.

Chiefs-Ravens prediction, picks

The day before the playoffs began, I predicted a Chiefs-Ravens AFC Championship. Since that day I have tried to talk myself into picking the Chiefs to win, but I haven’t been able to do it.

Will the Chiefs beat the Ravens?

I do not think the Chiefs will beat the Ravens, though I’m not so confident in that pick to place a bet on it. I’d never bet against Mahomes in the playoffs. That said, while the Chiefs’ offense has finally been good the last few weeks, it hasn’t faced a defense nearly as good (or as healthy) as Baltimore’s. I think the Chiefs will actually contain Jackson well (or as much as one can), but it’s the Chiefs’ offense that I think will have a hard time.

Will the Chiefs cover the spread?

I do think the Chiefs can cover the spread. Four points seems like a hefty loss for Mahomes in the playoffs. This could be a last-minute matchup — possibly an overtime game.

Wes’ pick: Ravens 23, Chiefs 20