Chiefs Beat Broncos for 15th-Straight Time, But Questions Remain Following 27-24 Win on Sunday
Victory Monday's are still #good.
The Kansas City Chiefs (13-3) picked up yet another victory over the Denver Broncos (4-12) on Sunday with their 27-24 win in the final regular season game at home - with the team traveling to Las Vegas next week to close things out with the Raiders.
But Sunday’s victory was a game that had Chiefs fans walking away with mixed emotions once again - something they’ve become accustomed to over the last few weeks.
On one hand, the Chiefs did leave with a win and that’s ultimately all that matters. It is, in fact, the simple goal every time they step on the field - to win the game.
But should a team with Super Bowl aspirations be struggling as much as they are against teams like the Broncos, Seahawks, and Texans? They’ve won those three games by a combined 13 points, and those three teams have a combined 14 wins this season.
Chiefs quarterback and MVP favorite Patrick Mahomes went 29 of 42 for 328 yards with three touchdowns and an interception, while his top three targets this season - Travis Kelce, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling - combined for 11 catches for just 92 yards.
Still, Mahomes, who surpassed 5,000 yards passing for the season on Sunday, found a way during a far from perfect performance to lead the Chiefs to a victory.
Here are Kent, Craig and Matty’s thoughts on Sunday’s win:
The Chiefs have eclipsed the 12-win mark in a regular season only four times prior to this season. Even in Patrick Mahomes’ brilliant early start to what will be an all-time career, he’s only won more than 12 games once before the Chiefs secured their 13th victory on Sunday.
It’s a remarkable feat against what was the NFL’s toughest projected schedule heading into the year — especially considering the massive changes this team made after last season.
We all know by now that the Chiefs traded away Tyreek Hill, collected a large amount of draft picks, and hit a reset on the roster to create more long-term flexibility. They re-tooled the wide receiver room and went uber young on defense — throwing several rookies into the fire.
The win total for this team was 10.5 in most sports books. This team has already exceeded expectations in a big way, and are expected to win their (tied for) AFC-best 14th game next week against the Raiders.
We all knew headed into the season that things could be difficult, frustrating, and challenging at times. The AFC West was supposed to put up a big fight. They didn’t. The Chiefs steamrolled through the division and secured it before Christmas.
Moments of this season can certainly be defined as difficult, frustrating, and challenging. We came in expecting that and the success of this team made us forget it. What’s amazing is that the difficult, frustrating, and challenging season has led to 13 wins and possibly 14 in the regular season. They retooled the roster, leaned on rookies, and are still thriving.
Yes, there have been bigger hiccups and painful losses against the rest of the AFC’s best, but if this reset year is yielding these kind of results, the future is bright. The Chiefs are still Super Bowl contenders despite everyone loading up to beat them. We need that perspective sometimes. Today seemed like another good day.
38.6% - Offensive Third Down Conversions the last 4 games
The Kansas City Chiefs offense started off well against the Denver Broncos in Week 17, much like they did in their first matchup. At the half, Patrick Mahomes had racked up 236 yards passing and a touchdown – against a defense that had allowed just 190 yards and 0.9 touchdowns a game through the air on the season. However, the offense was just 1-for-4 on third downs at the half. It didn’t get better on the day for Mahomes and company, as they finished 2-for-9 on the crucial down – a 22% conversion rate.
As the season has progressed, this offense has seen its third down conversion rate dropping – to be expected as defensive coordinators make adjustments. However, the last four games have seen just a 38.6% conversion rate, a full 11.1% decrease over their season long conversion rate. The last four weeks have seen the Chiefs drop from the league lead in third down conversion percentage, to tied for the lead with the Bills heading into this week, to potentially falling to third in the league after a 2-for-9 performance. This offense is still terrific – as Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Jet McKinnon showed today – but their third down performance bears watching as this team enters the playoffs.
54.2% - Dropbacks affected by the Chiefs defense
The last time the Chiefs defense played against the Broncos, they racked up 5 sacks and an interception in an up-and-down performance. In Sunday’s game against Russell Wilson and company, the Chiefs defense nearly matched the feat with 4 sacks and an interception – with another interception called back – and a forced fumble. While those numbers are quality enough on the surface, it was the frequency with which the Chiefs affected the passer that told the true story.
Wilson threw for 222 yards and a touchdown on the day – as well as rushing for two more – but the Chiefs had him under duress for over half of his dropbacks. 54.2% of Wilson’s passing attempts saw a sack, a pass break-up, or a hurry on the play. Wilson was able to get the ball out to the middle of the field and take advantage of the Chiefs’ man coverage assignments, but it typically came with a Chiefs defender hitting him or making him uncomfortable in the pocket for most of the day. This Chiefs defense has some deficiencies – and needs to clean up some penalty-laden drives – but its pressure packages have been good enough to keep them ahead and help finish out some recent games.
The Chiefs and Broncos played in yet another back and fourth game that ended up being settled by a single score. This is the sixth time in Patrick Mahomes eleven starts against the Broncos that the game has come down to one score or less (4 out of the last 5 times as well). The Chiefs currently have the Broncos’ number but the games are never easy and this first matchup of 2023 was no different.
Early in the fourth quarter it looked like the Chiefs were finally going to break the Broncos. After a poor Russell Wilson interception the Chiefs scored their second Touchdown in 5 minutes to take a 27-17 lead. This game had the feeling of being “over” but to the Broncos credit they fought back and brought the game to within a FG with just over 6 minutes left in the game.
The Chiefs got the ball with a chance to run the clock out and win the game. Unfortunately they were only able to muster 20 yards but did burn two minutes off the clock. The Chiefs were forced to punt the ball back to the Broncos and force their defense to win the game.
The Broncos were clearly in no rush to start their drive as they wanted to use up all 4 minutes remaining. That lackadaisical approach landed them in a 4th and 2 situation at their own 45 yard line with under 90 seconds to play. With the Broncos trying to drive to win the game it was time for someone to make the final play and boy did they.
The Chiefs align in a Tite front with Dunlap set out as a wide rusher. Both Trent McDuffie and Justin Reid aligned tight to the formation as Apex defenders showing a potential rush threat. This pulls the Broncos into a 6 man protection with every potential blocker responsible for a potential rusher but they are running a zone blitz with Danna dropping into coverage while both apex defenders bring pressure off the edge.
When the QB sees both Reid and McDuffie on a blitz - both of whom are accounted for by the protection - he looks for his hot read over the middle of the field where Reid would typically be defending. The problem is Bolton is receiving help from Mike Danna dropping into that area of the field forcing Wilson to hold the ball for an extra beat, which is only part one of this play.
The second part stems from where Danna dropped into coverage from. Since he was aligned as a DT, the RG was responsible for blocking in pass protection. The way the Chiefs DL was shifted in tight, it also put the LT responsible for a defensive back (Trent McDuffie) rushing from out wide and everyone else in a one-on-one matchup with a DL. This included Chris Jones who was one-on-one with a center who was set to receive no help from either side.
Jones was quickly able to clear the hands of the would-be blocker and give chase to Wilson. Wilson had to pull the ball down from his initial read because of the dropping zone defenders and was immediately put into a bind. McDuffie was rushing deep with speed off one side, Justin Reid had beaten the RB in protection off the other side, and Jones was barreling down the middle. There was nothing left to do but turtle up and take the sack resulting in the Chiefs pulling out another 1 score victory over the Denver Broncos thanks to a well timed zone-blitz.
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