Chiefs by the Numbers: Five takeaways from week two against the Ravens

Taking a look at some of the "hidden" week one storylines in the Chiefs first September loss with Mahomes at the helm.

The Kansas City Chiefs were able to close out a close victory against a good Cleveland Browns team in week one, and were facing a depleted Baltimore Ravens team in week two. The Chiefs were getting back some key members in Tyrann Mathieu and Frank Clark, while the Ravens were reeling after a Monday Night Football week one loss. Conditions were prime for the Chiefs to take advantage of a matchup.

Unfortunately, the Ravens came out and ran all over the Chiefs defense, while Patrick Mahomes and the offense couldn’t quite close out the fourth quarter, leading to a one point loss — Mahomes’ first loss in September. There’s a lot to unpack about this performance (and we certainly will throughout the week), but here are five numbers that stood out to me from the Chiefs week two loss to the Ravens.

17% - Chiefs offensive third down conversions on the day

The Chiefs offense was potent, scoring 35 points and racking up 8.3 yards per play, but they struggled on third down. Mahomes and company converted just 1-of-6 third down attempts, with the lone conversion happening on the first drive of the game. Another third down was not converted late in the game, but a Baltimore penalty gave the Chiefs a first down anyway.

The Chiefs punted three times and had one third down interception, which is very un-Mahomes-like. Furthermore, all but one of those drives occurred after the Chiefs defense came up with their only three stops of the game. While the offense was holding up their end of the bargain for most of the night, the lack of complimentary football and typical third down conversion rate allowed the Ravens to hang around for most of the evening — and eventually nip the Chiefs at the end of the game.

3.29 - Yards per carry for the Chiefs offense through two games

The Chiefs passing game has been dominant through the first two weeks of the season, averaging right around 10 yards per attempt. The positive effect of the Chiefs revamped offensive line is paying dividends for Mahomes, and he’s been able to find his weapons regularly for big gains. However, the same can’t be said about the rushing offense.

The Chiefs are averaging just 3.29 yards per carry on offense — and that includes quarterback scrambles. The offense made it a point to add bigger offensive linemen that can play in a diverse rushing attack, but said attack hasn’t formulated like the Chiefs would have hoped yet. Some blame does lay at the feet of the line, but second-year running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire looks a bit tentative and is struggling to hit the hole at times. These two issues combined in a catastrophic way for the Chiefs offense with an Edwards-Helaire fumble — the first of his career — late in the fourth quarter with the team in field goal range.

Part of the hope with this new offensive line is that the Chiefs could “kill off” some of these games and that the investment in offensive line and a first-round running back would help control the line of scrimmage and add another element for the opposition to have to gameplan. Through two games, it’s been a struggle to get the run game going. Here’s hoping they can do so in the upcoming weeks.

45% - Blitz rate for the Chiefs defense

The Chiefs got pressure on 9% of Lamar Jackson’s dropbacks on the day, including the two wiped out by penalties. Unfortunately, it took a very high blitz rate to affect the passer in a contest where the Ravens offensive line was depleted. This was a matchup tilted in the Chiefs favor, and yet they struggled to affect Jackson in the passing game, even with a heavy blitz percentage.

The Chiefs have focused a fair amount of assets in their front seven, hoping to find a four man rush that can make an impact in the passing game, as well as a set of linebackers that can blitz effectively on coverage downs. It’s been an uphill battle in this department thus far for Steve Spagnuolo’s group — largely due to heavy play action and run-first teams — but the expectation is that this group should be making more of an impact, especially when sending extra rushers.

Spagnuolo has a phenomenal blitz package, as we’ve seen in previous years. The Chiefs defense may have to dig a bit further into them to be as effective as they want to be on passing downs.

6.42 - Yards per carry given up by the Chiefs base defense

The biggest talk through two games is the inability for the Chiefs defense to stop the run. Yes, the Browns and Ravens are two of the best rushing offenses in the league, but the Chiefs defense has not only struggled to stop it, they’ve been actively bad doing so. The Chiefs are currently getting a worse performance out of their base defense against the run than they are out of their nickel. This front seven is built to stop the run with heavy defensive linemen and run-stuffing linebackers. So far, those elements haven’t come together.

Exacerbating the situation is that the Chiefs linebackers are still struggling in coverage. Only one linebacker has as coverage success rate higher than an abysmal 17% (Hitchens), and all three are allowing over 8 yards per catch on the year. With the second level struggling in coverage — and also allowing over 5.8 yards per carry in the run game — there’s a lot of things to improve on going forward. Luckily, the Chiefs won’t be facing a Greg Roman read-option offense or the Browns offensive line until January at the earliest.

1 - Number of total Chiefs losses in September since 2016

It is difficult to win in the NFL. Coming out of the gate firing on all cylinders is tough for most teams, let alone ones that maintain a first-place schedule year after year. It’s rare to see teams start off undefeated records to start the year, and yet — that’s what we’ve become accustomed to with this Chiefs team. There’s a standard of excellence, and a performance like this — as unacceptable as it may seem — is more normal that us Chiefs fans are used to in the early NFL season.

It doesn’t mean there aren’t things to fix. The defense has more holes than we thought prior to the season. The run game on offense failed in its first two tests to “close out” a game. There are still questions about the third weapon on offense, a consistent pass rusher on defense, and if this team is going to have to rely on Mahomes to play “hero ball” week in and week out to win games.

And yet, this team persists. This might be a deflection point for this team after chalking up a poor performance in the Super Bowl to the attrition on the offensive line. This team needed a kick in the pants — and they got one from a depleted Ravens squad on Sunday. With an increasingly important matchup with the Los Angeles Chargers looming this weekend, the question will be whether they can respond to this adversity.

I know Mahomes, Andy Reid, and a litany of other folks in that building are mad about this “1” in September. Let’s see if they can make a statement and prevent number two.