Chiefs Face Chargers In Crucial AFC West Battle
Matt, Craig, and Kent break down a key remaining game on the Chiefs' schedule
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The Kansas City Chiefs head to Los Angeles to play the Chargers on Sunday Night Football in a game with big ramifications for the remainder of the season. Here is what you need to know!
Magnitude of Chargers Game Can't Be Overstated For Chiefs
There’s a long way to go until the playoff seeding are set — and plenty is going to change over the course of the season. As of right now, the Chiefs are in the driver’s seat for the AFC one seed — the lone bye week in the conference. They’re also two games up in the AFC West on the second place team — the Los Angeles Chargers.
The Chiefs endured the most difficult portion of their schedule in the first half of the season — and only have two blemishes on their record to date. Things are starting to lighten up on the back end of the schedule, a sign of optimism for their ability to hold pole position for the remainder of the season.
A win on Sunday night would be a giant step in the direction of securing the one seed and would all but lock up the AFC West.
Only three teams currently with winning records are left on the Chiefs’ schedule — and this week against the Chargers is one of them. The opportunity to get one of those games against a team above .500 out of the way with a win is big. It also puts the Chiefs essentially four games ahead of the Chargers in the AFC West — as they’d own tie breakers with their two victories over the division rival.
According to FiveThirtyEight, a Chiefs win over the Chargers on Sunday night would give them >99% chance of winning the AFC West and a 59% chance of securing the one seed.
A loss would put the Chiefs at an 89% of winning the West and a drastic drop off in their one seed odds — reducing it down to only 25%.
The Chiefs and Bills are the two hottest contenders to end up as the one seed in the AFC— despite Buffalo being third in their division currently. The Bills hold the tie breaker between the two teams. Getting through one of the biggest remaining tests of the regular season will go a long way in the Chiefs being able to hold of Buffalo.
The stakes are high in this game. It gives Kansas City a great chance to host the Arrowhead Invitational for a fifth straight season.
Scheme Spotlight
Justin Herbert is one of the top young Quarterbacks in the NFL and it’s not a debate. Physically he has all of the tools that teams’ usually covet in a QB with the arm, the size, and the athleticism but it’s his mind that often gets the biggest compliments. Compared to some of the other young, top QBs in the NFL that thrive when creating plays out of nothing as everything breaks down, Herbert operates a tight ship.
Now, over the past year this has started to draw some ire from fans of the Chargers and the game but it’s also part of what makes Herbert, Herbert. He’s able to quickly decipher a defense, work his progressions, and get the ball out at a Drew Brees like level in an offense that is very similar to the late-career Brees’ Saints teams. It’s this mental process that the Chargers like to lean on to build their offense and all of that starts with their quick game.
The Chargers passing offense is based around the quick passing attack. The ability to get the ball out quickly, pick up positive yards, and simply keep the chains moving down the field. They mix in shot plays to bigger receivers down the sideline but this is their bread and butter and where Herbert feels the most comfortable.
Hank Concept
This first play is a Hank Concept which is a very basic passing concept all across football. It’s essentially two mirrored Curl-Flat routes to either side of the formation and then a Middle Sit route that is designed to sit down right over the top of the ball. The QB’s progressions are working from that Middle Sit route out to whichever side has better pre-snap leverage.
Traditionally the concept is ran shorter - aiming for 6 to 8 yards out of all of the routes - but the Chargers will stretch it out at times. This is really a nod to how much the Chargers enjoy this concept and why they often run it multiple times in a game. Because of the elongated depth of this route, to keep the timing of the progression we see the receivers running the Flat routes stay in to chip so everything still can progress the same way.
The Hank Concept is generally designed and utilized to attack Cover-3 defenses because of the stress it will place on the thin underneath coverage. The apex player is often responsible for the flat and can only get out there if vacating the Middle Sit route immediately. The outside corner has to carry the Hitch route vertically leaving simply not enough bodies to cover all of the options.
Spacing Concept
The Spacing Concept is another quick passing concept that works to attack Cover-3 or even man coverage when run out of the bunch. Three receivers to the same side will work a three-man route - a Spot, a Sit/Curl, and an Out/flat - on their side of the field. In this concept the goal is to stress the flat defender again because they have to choose to instantly run with the Out route or hold the Sit/Curl route creating a two-on-one read for the offense.
On the other side of the offense there are various different two receiver combinations that can be used. The Chargers have a 2-Man Snag Concept on this play, which is one of their go to plays. This ultimately results in 5 receivers being close to the line of scrimmage all ready to receive the ball as soon as the QB hits the top of his drop.
Most defenses will approach this formation by overloading the trips-bunch to avoid getting out-leveraged. This makes the two-receiver side the first part of the progression for these plays.
Especially against a shifted Cover-3 look, the Flat will predominantly be open but if the flat defender gets outside quickly enough it allows the Curl to be open in behind it. If the two-receiver side is well covered, the QB just continues across the field in a natural progression working to the Spot, Sit, and then Out route.
Chiefs Defense Defending the Quick Game
The Chargers run one of the deeper quick-game passing attacks in the NFL. It highlights their QB’s quick processing, quick release, and arm talent and can bring consistent offense. One small trick is that a lot of it is designed to attack single-high safety defenses. A lot of these concepts are trying to put 5 receivers into immediate routes near the line of scrimmage because Cover-3 teams only have 4 shallow zone defenders.
The Chiefs play some of the least amount of Cover-3 and Cover-1 in the entire NFL. In fact, they have the third highest rate of Cover-2 in the NFL right now. In stark contrast to Cover-3, Cover-2 does have enough shallow zone defenders to handle some of these quick-game concepts. The Chiefs simply won’t be out-manned against these concepts and it’s going to be about basic execution and communication between the flat defenders (cornerbacks) and apex defenders (slot defender and outside linebacker).
Certainly the Chargers will have some counter punches mixed in. Against two-high teams they will run various types of Smash and Mesh concepts which can stress how the underneath zone defenders handle the route combinations.
Another concept the Chargers have flashed on occasion is this Lion Concept. It’s essentially just a double Slant off the same side with the slot receiver working further upfield and the outside receiver running a Slant underneath. Whether man coverage or Cover-2, the leverage of the corners in coverage against these Slant routes isn’t going to be great. It creates an avenue for the receivers to simply run away from a CB who has to protect their outside. It’s another quick concept just to keep an eye out for if the Chiefs have luck shutting down some other things the Chargers throw at them.
Matchup to Watch: Chiefs 4-Man Rush vs. Chargers OL
This feels a bit like cheating, but it is the case: as goes this matchup, so goes the game on Sunday night. The Chargers offensive line is struggling in 2022. After losing one of the best young left tackles in the league in Rashawn Slater, the Chargers have had to turn to some poor offensive line depth to protect Justin Herbert off the edge.Â
Sixth round rookie Jamaree Salyer has gotten the nod at left tackle. After playing guard all preseason, Salyer stepped right in after Slater went down with his injury. While he hasn’t given up a sack since stepping into the role, the Chargers offense is giving him a lot of help. There is a clear focus to keep chip-help in for the rookie – something that I would expect the Chargers to continue doing on Sunday against the Chiefs.
With that said, offering that help to Salyer means that they can’t offer it to right tackle Trey Pipkins – or Storm Norton, should Pipkins not be able to go on Sunday night. Chiefs fans are familiar with both players, as Steve Spagnuolo’s defense has had ample success with bringing pressure through either player. With Frank Clark back in the fold – and Carlos Dunlap, Mike Danna, and George Karlaftis heating up in recent weeks – the matchup against the Chargers’ offensive tackles should tilt in the Chiefs favor.
Meanwhile, the Chargers interior is a much more stable group. Rookie Zion Johnson, Corey Linsley, and Matt Feiler form an above-average group that helps Herbert to step into throws and distribute in the quick passing game. However, that didn’t stop Chris Jones from being an absolute wrecking ball the first time these two teams played. After moving to Feiler, Jones was a terror, accumulating two sacks and helping the Chiefs defense close out a win. Jones is arguably playing even better as the year has gone along, and he’s joined by a much-improved Khalen Saunders in the middle of the defense. Those two will see more one-on-ones than usual with more help going to the edges of the offensive line, which creates good matchups for the Chiefs on the interior.
This is one of those games where the Chiefs look to have the upper hand on paper in the trenches. The defensive line should be able to control the line of scrimmage against the run and should have a distinct advantage rushing the passer – which will force Herbert to get the ball out even faster and the receiver route tree to stem even shorter. With that said, we’ve seen situations like this before, with some disappointing results as the Chiefs defense was unable to capitalize on a matchup that favored them. However, I’m betting this is an occasion that the Chiefs defense steps up and capitalizes on the Chargers weak offensive line – helping tilt the game in Kansas City’s favor.
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