Chiefs Look to Bounce Back Against Divisional Rival Broncos
Potential division clinching scenario with win in Denver
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The Chiefs look to bounce back from a tough road loss to the Cincinnati Bengals by traveling to play to the struggling Denver Broncos. Here’s what you need to know about Sunday’s game.
Surviving A Trap Game
The Broncos have nothing to play for at this point in this season but pride and — for some — job security. They’re 3-9 and the outlook of the future of their team looks bleak with their expensive quarterback, Russell Wilson.
The Chiefs are hot in a race for the one seed in the AFC — building toward a run at a Super Bowl. They’re coming off a loss to the defending AFC Champions, the Cincinnati Bengals.
One team has everything to play for and prove, while the head coach of the over is hoping not to find a pink slip on his computer the next day.
This game should be a comfortable Chiefs win on paper — and Vegas seems to think so too with the line hovering close to double digits. Emotionally, it feels a lot more nerve wracking.
The formula for the Broncos pulling off an upset really isn’t that illogical. They have a top shelf defense that can slow down the Chiefs’ high powered offense the way it has many teams this year. A few explosive plays from the Broncos offense could really make this game interesting.
When you have the kind of defense the Broncos have, it can put the game in the margin for error for the offense. Especially if the Chiefs’ defense puts on a performance similarly to what they did against the Bengals.
The offense largely held their end of the bargain last Sunday, with the defense failing them. If the offense slips up slightly against a good defense, things can get interesting.
Ball protection on offense and limiting explosive plays defense are simplistic takes, but they might be more magnified in a game against a team with an imbalance of strengths.
The Chiefs better prepare for an ugly game. Because whether or not they win comfortably, it’s not going to be pretty.
Scheme Spotlight
The Denver Broncos have kind of been the defensive blueprint that the rest of the NFL has been using to “slow” the Chiefs’ offense down the past few seasons. Vic Fangio’s two-high defensive structure full of post-snap rotations, mixed zone/man coverage, and various pressure concepts has become the modern NFL defense. As the NFL passing game evolved, defenses were forced to do the same and a lot of the modern themes come from Fangio’s staple concepts.
The Chiefs were at the forefront of the offensive innovation while Fangio - the ex-Broncos’ head coach - was at the forefront of the two-high coverage shell renaissance. It’s been super fun to watch over the years albeit very frustrating as a Chiefs’ fan as there always seems to be a struggle for the Chiefs trying to figure out this exact defense.
With Vic Fangio out as the Broncos’ head coach, Ejiro Evero has taken over as their defensive coordinator and has the until playing like one of the top 3 defenses in the league. Coming from the Fangio tree the defense still shares a lot of the same principles but Evero has added his own twist on this defense and that’s where the focus is going to be for the Scheme Spotlight.
Broncos Overload Pressure Package
The Fangio defensive style doesn’t often revolve around a deep blitz package. In fact Fangio and Brandon Staley - one of the most popular DCs from the coaching tree - frequently finish among the bottom of the NFL in terms of blitz rate. It helps that they’ve often had good defensive line units but their style of play centers more around coverage than manufacturing pressure.
The Broncos under Evero don’t follow that same philosophy as strictly as the guys popularizing the scheme. He had spent time coaching with Wade Phillips in Los Angeles and some of that desire to manufacture pressure through the blitz certainly shows up in his gameplan.
Overload Concepts
The Broncos’ pass rush this season is around average in terms of sacks/game and pressure rate on the season. The Fangio style defense often relies on the four-man rush and typically that includes two quality edge rushers and at least one good interior presence. The Broncos hoped to have that with Bradley Chubb and Randy Gregory on the outside and Dremont Jones on the interior. Unfortunately an injury early in the season to Gregory and then a trade of Chubb didn’t allow those three to really gel as a unit.
Being slightly under-manned for what the defensive system usually thrives with, the Broncos have had to rely on their pressure packages a little more frequently than one may have expected. The even bigger kicker is that it’s quite possibly what makes their defense one of the best in the NFL.
Evero does a great job balancing the two-high structure with post-snap rotations with aggressive play calling on the front end. With offenses so focused on where the coverage is shifting on the back end, late showing blitzes can easily find their home while quarterbacks are focusing elsewhere.
Enter Overload concepts for the Broncos. These work on a few different levels with the most basic being that they produce one-on-one matchups. With three defensive linemen all slid to a single side of the offensive line, the Broncos can dictate who is getting matched-up one on one with a guard, center, and tackle to find their best match-up in that game.
Eventually offenses will counter the overloaded side with extra bodies or simply work away from it but Denver has another step to add. They’ll send an extra rusher from the second - or third - level frequently when showing this look. Sometimes it comes to the strength of their formation and other times the weak side. The goal is to make sure the offenses’ protection calls are honoring all potential rushers so that the defense can still dictate one-on-one matchups throughout the game.
Crossfire Blitz
This was one of the cooler concepts the Broncos added on top of their Overloaded front. Bringing both linebackers with the offensive line as stretched out as it has to be vs this front essentially forces the running back to stay in pass protection. Once that aspect is secured, the “crossfire” of the linebackers adds an extra layer of confusion for an offensive line already being stressed in a unique way.
The nose tackle and MIKE linebacker - to the strong/overloaded side - slant to the backside of the formation. This drags the backside guard and center to their left with their “man” to block. The WILL linebacker feints a step in that same direction before crossing over and looping back to the strongside against the other slanting rushers.
This creates chaos and confusion amongst the blockers and the LB gets a free rush at a QB who is trying to work away from the slanting rushers. It’s a unique twist that still produces some of the same one-on-one opportunities but also attacks an offenses’ protection scheme that could be used to counter the basic overload principles.
How the Chiefs Can Stop the Broncos Pressure
The answer isn’t a complex one but rather one that requires high end execution on multiple levels. The Chiefs have to make sure their pass protection calls are on point when they see these Overload formations. The Broncos don’t always bring extra rushers from this alignment but it’s their best way to ensure one-on-one opportunities and they know it.
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ receivers will have to know who is “hot” behind the blitz and take the easy yards when they present themselves. Safeties still have to be heavily monitored when looking for hot routes though because this is still a Fangio-style defense with tons of post-snap coverage rotation. The offensive line’s communication will have to be on point passing off slants, stunts, and blitzers as the play unfolds into an already crowded space.
Another easy solution in short-medium yardage situations is to simply roll the pocket away from the overload. Simply scrambling away from it can be possible but the Broncos will often have a looping player working back across the formation that can simply carry out his path to hold contain. If the Chiefs can move the entire pocket away from the overloaded side, the end man on the line of scrimmage may have a path too far to impact the play even if unblocked.
Chiefs Can Clinch West on Sunday
If the Chiefs take care of business against the Broncos on Sunday afternoon, they’ll be tuned in on Sunday night to watch the Los Angeles Chargers host the Miami Dolphins.
A victory on Sunday afternoon sets up a scenario where the Chiefs could secure their 7th straight AFC West title if the Dolphins can beat the Chargers.
It would be an unceremonious way to win the division, but I don’t think the Chiefs would care. Hat and t-shirts can be passed around another day.
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