Chiefs Return to Arrowhead to Take On Seahawks
What you need to know about Chiefs-Seahawks
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The Chiefs are back in Arrowhead Stadium for the first time in the month of December as they welcome the Seattle Seahawks — the only team the Chiefs have on a schedule currently with .500 or better record.
Here’s what you need to know about Sunday’s matchup.
Scheme Spotlight
This isn’t the same ole Seattle Seahawks offense that we have grown accustomed to over the past decade. Geno Smith has taken over for Russell Wilson and Pete Carroll has that offense functioning in an entirely different way. Their success has been incredibly inconsistent this season but they remain a dangerous offense on any given day.
Just like under Wilson, one of their biggest offensive weapons is their vertical passing game. The Seahawks still want to run the ball often but like to maintain a vertical passing element in their offense. The adjustment teams have had to deal with this year is how that passing game has evolved with a new quarterback at the helm.
Seahawks Vertical Passing Attack
With Wilson at QB the Seahawks often pushed the ball vertically by throwing Go balls on the outside. Wilson threw with excellent touch and accuracy on these types of routes but it did leave the team relying on low-percentage throws for a large portion of their offense. With Geno Smith taking over, that vertical passing attack has taken on a new look.
Deep Crossing Routes
The Seahawks have essentially flipped the entire script on how they try to stretch the field vertically. In the past they had to avoid routes working across the middle of the field and focus on pushing the ball up the sideline with touch. With Geno Smith now throwing the passes, he is willing to work around in the pocket and keep his eyes over the middle of the field.
It’s nothing other NFL teams haven’t been doing for a long time but it’s new to the Seahawks offensive repertoire. In some ways it’s now more difficult to defend the Seahawks passing attack because of their ability to throw to all areas of the field.
Tyler Lockett has been the primary target for a lot of these deep crossing concepts but they’ll still involve other receivers as well. They certainly lose some of their dynamic ability with Lockett missing the game but they have found ways to still push the ball with these crossing concepts to other weapons.
How the Chiefs Can Stop the Seahawks Deep Crossers
The Chiefs heavy zone approach - Cover-2 Zone specifically - lends itself relatively well to slowing down this type of vertical attack. With 5 “shallow” defenders it allows guys to play at varying depths and often at least one middle-of-the-field zone defender will be playing with added depth. There will be a soft spot between two deep safeties but the fact that there are two allows them to play more aggressively from the front or backside of the play.
When they do decide to play man coverage, the Chiefs don’t have great coverage options in the middle of the field after L’Jarius Sneed. Their linebackers and safeties don’t provide plus matchups in their direction and even when just helping in zone coverage they don’t squeeze out space at a high level.
This matchup may force the Chiefs into a zone-heavy approach for much of the game and have to hope the Seahawks don’t start executing at a high level picking it apart. Additionally these types of routes require a decent amount of time to develop purely based on how much distance a WR has to run. If the Chiefs pass rush can force Geno Smith off his spot, it becomes a lot harder to funnel a lot of the vertical passing game through these deep crossers.
Matchup to Watch: Geno Smith vs. Steve Spagnuolo’s Blitzes
This week has drawn a lot of attention to the Kansas City Chiefs pass rush. Whether it be public comments about the four-man rush by Khalen Saunders, Chris Jones downplaying the social media reaction, or the national media (finally) picking up on the Chiefs’ fourth-ranked sack output, the focus has been placed on the defense’s ability to rush the passer. With the amount of assets along the defensive line – and a narrative that the Chiefs defense struggles to rush the passer – that focus won’t be going away anytime soon.
The Seattle Seahawks’ offensive line hasn’t done a great job of protecting Geno Smith this season – he’s currently sixth in sacks taken in 2022 – which will only further draw the focus on the Chiefs’ defense rushing the passer. Fortunately for Steve Spagnuolo and company, that pass rush doesn’t have to come from the defensive line to be successful this week. In fact, it may be prudent for the Chiefs to send extra bodies as part of the pressure packages, as they’ve been incredibly successful against Smith this year.
The Seahawks are one of the worst teams in the NFL against the blitz – ranking 26th in EPA per play against it. They’ve not done a great job of adjusting the protection to pick it up, even against fairly standard or repeated pressure looks. Although their best pass-protecting back (Travis Homer) will likely see more work this week with Kenneth Walker banged up, the Seahawks still have not done well picking up slot and A-gap blitzes, particularly in the last couple of weeks. Smith has taken three or more sacks in each of the last five games, with at least one coming as a result of a blitzer.
Furthermore, all five of Smith’s lowest-yardage games have come against teams ranked in the top ten in blitz percentage in 2022. Those five games have seen a combined 14 sacks taken by Smith, accounting for nearly 38% of his year-long sack total. All of those games also featured Smith’s go-to blitz-beating target – Tyler Lockett – who will miss this week’s game against the Chiefs due to a finger injury.
Spagnuolo’s Chiefs defense this year is right around the middle of the pack in blitz percentage through 14 games at 26.6%. That’s lower than usual for his defenses, and has been impacted by a lack of consistent extra rushers over the past several games. With the Seahawks struggling to pick up those extra rushers – and some key weapons missing from the offense – we may just see Spagnuolo ratchet up the blitz again in this game and force Smith to take some extra sacks or make some key mistakes.
Rookies On Display On Sunday
Two of the best rookie classes in all of the NFL will match up this week in Arrowhead. Their impact on the game will be felt.
We are well aware of the contributions the Chiefs’ rookie class has made this season. The cornerback position is comprised of Trent McDuffie (21st pick), Joshua Williams (135th pick), and Jaylen Watson (243rd pick) as the primary earners of snaps on the outside. Edge rusher George Karlaftis (30th pick) has played heavily on the defensive line.
Running back Isiah Pacheco (251st pick) has been the Chiefs’ best ball carrier on the roster. Receiver Skyy Moore has shown flashes in hist first year.
That’s a lot of contributions, (not to mention safety Bryan Cook, linebacker Leo Chenal) and the Seahawks somehow might have the Chiefs beat on impact.
Seattle hit bigtime with the draft capital they received in 2022 for quarterback Russell Wilson. They’ve secured key contributors on both sides of the ball. Both of the Seahawks tackles are rookies playing good football — LT Charles Cross (9th pick) and RT Abraham Lucas (72nd pick and one of Matty’s Guys) and have played well.
Running behind the two tackles is running back Kenneth Walker (41st pick) — who has looked like the best first year running back in the class.
The Seahawks are leaning on young players in their secondary, and found the steal of the draft in the fifth round in Pro Bowl cornerback Tariq Woolen (153rd pick) who leads the NFL in interceptions with 6. Fourth round pick Coby Bryant (109th pick) is also playing heavily and playing well.
At any point of the game, several rookies will be on the field standing out. Both teams have to be thrilled with what they’ve been able to acquire. And it’s all the more sweet to see the Seahawks succeeding with Denver’s draft picks.
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