Chiefs Take On Broncos In Arrowhead Regular Season Finale
Here's what you need to know about the Chiefs' Week 17 game.
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The final regular season game (but not the last of the season!) in Arrowhead happens Sunday as the Chiefs welcome Russell Wilson and the Denver Broncos into town for a divisional battle.
The Chiefs are looking to finish the home slate with a victory to keep their hopes alive of securing the one seed in the AFC. Here’s what you need to know about this week’s game.
Scheme Spotlight
When two teams play each other for the second time in a season, things often get very dicey and specific between them. No longer is the emphasis on some grandiose scheme or a specific look the opponent has out on the field. Instead, teams can now dive into their own film and come up with counters to what they saw the first time.
For the Chiefs in this matchup with the Broncos it’s a pretty simple task… don’t turn the ball over. The Chiefs’ offense moved the ball at will to start the game. That success really carried over throughout the entirety of it but they turned the ball over at an alarming rate which allowed the Broncos to work back into the game. In general “not turning the ball over” can’t be boiled down to a specific technique or scheme point in the coaching room but in this particular case it may be possible.
Patrick Mahomes threw 3 interceptions against the Broncos that led to 50% of the Bronco’s successful defensive stands in the game. Removing those interceptions - without even adding scores - immediately alters the outlook of the entire game making it by far the most important part of the game plan this week.
Respecting the Broncos Zone Defense
One of Mahomes’ interceptions - the second one - was a little more flukey so we’ll set that one to the side for the purpose of this article. The other two interceptions on the other hand, were very similar plays in regards to how they occurred. On both plays Mahomes’ tried using his eyes to move an underneath zone defender and then fit a pass in behind him. Both times the defender didn’t take the bait and undercut the pass.
First thing you have to do is tip your cap to the defender but there also has to be a certain level of respect for a well coached defense. The Broncos’ have a deep zone defense playbook with tons of different styles of coverage. The overarching theme to them all is how well coached they are. They understand their assignments, what areas to defend, what players to defend, and how to communicate. That has to be respected by the Chiefs in this second matchup to avoid some of the same turnover opportunities.
High IQ Zone Defense
Some teams specialize in a specific type of zone defense.Teams like the Seattle Seahawks when they ran the Pete Carroll Cover 3. Many of Vic Fangio’s teams in his Quarters system. Lovie Smith and his Cover 2. The examples are plentiful of these specialized defenses that know these specific groups of coverages inside and out.
What makes the Broncos so dangerous is that they execute with that same level of specialization but do so across a ton of different zone defensive schemes. Even more impressive is that it’s not just certain players but everyone.
Take Josey Jewell for example on these two interceptions. He’s playing a relatively basic hook zone in both plays but fully understands everything about his assignment and what routes can threaten him. On the play(s), the Chiefs are trying to stress the hook defender - Jewell - with two routes.
He’s playing with good positioning and spacing so Mahomes’ tries to influence his zone drop by looking out wide. Both times Jewell begins to flow that direction but stops almost immediately. This gives an illusion he has been manipulated but in both instances he’s well aware of the other routes in the area and stays in position to make a play on the ball.
How the Chiefs Can Beat the Broncos’ Zone Coverage
The Chiefs are simply going to have to learn to take what is there. Patrick Mahomes specifically is going to have to stick within the structure of the play and not try to make more out of it like he often does. This isn’t a call to checking down or never pushing the ball vertically but rather to throw to the premade holes in the zone coverage.
Rather than trying to manipulate the coverage and create new openings, the Chiefs need to focus on simply attacking the ones already there. Don’t attempt to pull a hook-zone or deep-half defender out of position for the sole purpose of throwing in behind them. The Broncos’ defense is too well coached and quick to recognize when this is happening.
When the Chiefs were simply running their offense and taking what was there they had a ton of success. They moved the ball up and down the field on the Broncos and will do so again as long as they don’t fall victim to the same issues in the second round.
Matchup to Watch: Patrick Mahomes vs. Ejiro Evero
Patrick Mahomes has been seemingly invincible for most of the 2022 season. He’s pacing the NFL in yards, touchdowns, and is rivaling his 2018 MVP season in production metrics. It’s why he’s the odds-on favorite to leave the 2022 regular season as the NFL MVP, and it’s one of the biggest reasons why the Kansas City Chiefs are 12-3 and in contention for the #1 seed in a loaded AFC playoff race. However, Mahomes had one slip-up that brought him crashing back down to earth in the eyes of the media – and potentially the eyes of MVP voters – and that was the Week 14 matchup against the Denver Broncos.
To start, this Denver Broncos defense is very good. They’re ranked inside the Top 10 in almost every measurable metric, especially ones that include their passing defense. They are a very difficult defense to throw against, despite a lack of quality options rushing the passer. That’s a testament to first-year defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero getting this group to buy in and keep performing at a high level, despite the Broncos offense sputtering and dragging the team down in 2022. A quarterback performing below their normal standards in a game against this Broncos defense shouldn’t be noteworthy – but it was the way it happened to Mahomes that raised some eyebrows.
Mahomes was carving up the Broncos defense early in the game. A defense that is allowing just 197 passing yards and less than one passing touchdown a game had given up 224 yards and two touchdowns through the air with 7:23 left on the clock in the second quarter. This was largely done through the receiving ability of Jerick McKinnon in the flats and in the screen game, but Mahomes was able to hit on some deeper shots in the middle of the field. The Broncos defense was reeling, and they quickly found themselves down 27-0 with 2:59 remaining before the half.
At that point, Evero made adjustments that saw the Chiefs offense confused and Patrick Mahomes making mistakes. Evero dropped linebacker Josey Jewell deeper in his zones while having the Broncos’ cornerbacks sitting hard on the flats to take away McKinnon. He implemented a few more drop-eight coverages, mixed up his zone drops, and tried to create pressure through games up front. This immediate switch at all levels of the defense had Mahomes and company reeling. The Chiefs offense threw two interceptions, allowed two sacks, and accumulated just 31 passing yards in the next four offensive drives. Mahomes threw yet another interception to Jewell late in the game with the Chiefs protecting a six point lead, making for a stressful end-of-game experience.
Mahomes posted a ludicrous stat line of 352 yards and three touchdowns on the day, but it was largely criticized due to the three interceptions and just 128 yards passing in 2.5 quarters that allowed the Broncos back into the game. Evero and company will feel a surge of pride knowing that they rebounded from a rough start and kept their team in a potential blowout, while Mahomes and company will rue the missed opportunity to bury a division rival and a top defense. With Evero pulling out all the stops yet again – as he may be auditioning to stay in Denver or for a new coaching gig – will he come up with the necessary adjustments to take away what the Chiefs want to do on Sunday? Or will Patrick Mahomes tighten his hold on the NFL MVP in Week 17?
Brett Veach Was Right
In his yearly pre-draft press conference, Chiefs GM Brett Veach touted the late round/UDFA class of running backs and their ability to be productive NFL players.
The Chiefs grabbed rookie Isiah Pacheco in the seventh round of the draft, and he immediately began to turn heads. By mid-season, Pacheco was named the starter. In nine games as the starter, Pacheco has averaged 71.6 rushing yards per game. Over the course of 17 games that’s a 1,216 yard pace.
Veach didn’t only predict a 1,000 yard rusher, he found one. While he needs 265 rushing yards to officially reach that mark, the production of the feat is there since he took over.
Pacheco is, however, pacing for over 1,000 all purpose yards on the season. If his averages since being the starter hold, he’ll finish with 1,035 yards on the season.
It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Pacheco get some heavy run the next two weeks as the Chiefs look to grind out the next two games and get to the postseason without having to show too much with their passing game. The last time the Chiefs and Broncos matched up, Pacheco had 13 carries for 70 yards and 3 catches for 23 yards. That’d put him ahead of schedule to hit the 1,000 yard mark with one game remaining.
Veach found several gems in this draft class. Pacheco is one of the brightest. The Chiefs have a quality back to lean on for the foreseeable future.
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