Chiefs Travel to Cincinnati for Crucial Game Against Defending AFC Champions
KC Laboratory gets you ready for Chiefs-Bengals
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The Chiefs’ 2021 campaign ended at the hands of the Cincinnati Bengals — who beat them twice in the season. Sunday is the Chiefs’ chance to exact some revenge on the team that ended their season.
The 7-4 Bengals host the Chiefs in a game that will have significant ramification on how the AFC shakes up. Here’s what you need to know.
Scheme Spotlight
The Cincinnati Bengals have gone 0-2 against the Kansas City Chiefs in the past 365 days. In both of those wins, they have fallen to an early deficit and then come roaring back to beat the Chiefs after trailing by double digits going into halftime of both games. There are plenty of reasons why the Chiefs’ offense slowed down in both games but they’ve proven they have the ability and blueprint to put up points on the Bengals. The question is can the Chiefs’ defense slow them down for any sustained period of time or is it inevitable that the Bengals are going to put up points?
As Chiefs’ fans we know how this went down. The Bengals make a few adjustments to get some extra time to throw the ball and start launching vertical pass after vertical pass. Then the playmakers on the outside would take over at the catch point and simply come down with what felt like every single catch. The Bengals’ offense has evolved a ton this season but a lot of their success still centers around their ability to execute on the deep passing game.
Bengals Vertical Passing Attack
The Bengals’ offense has certainly evolved this year - most notably while Jamar Chase has been out - and it may result in a fair more consistent output for the uni as a whole. They’ve incorporated a lot more middle of the field passes and even corner type routes rather than living and dying by vertical routes up the sideline. That being said, the Bengals still fall back on those tried and true principles when they really need an explosive play.
989 Concept
The 989 concept is a staple of the Air Coryell offensive system that was made really popular as football teams started trying to push the ball deep downfield. It’s a basic idea that has two outside vertical routes - the “9”s - and a single Middle Read route - the “8” - that is designed to stretch the back end coverage of a defense.
This type of play works because it essentially ensures at least one 1-on-1 matchup with no possible help defenders available. It’s preferred against MOFC - middle field closed coverages, AKA a single high safety - because the single deep safety is forced to honor the Middle Read route. This leaves the offense with an opportunity to pick whichever match-up or leverage they like on their two outside vertical routes and test their wide receiver’s ability to make a play. For the Bengals, that usually ends up in their favor.
Against MOFO - middle of the field open - coverage the concept is still sound although the option of either vertical route can often be removed. The safety to the side of the slot receiver running the Middle Read will have to honor that route which leaves the outside receiver to that side in a 1-on-1 opportunity. A defense can absolutely live in this world and try to leverage the likely vertical receiver to the best of their ability but that may not be the Chiefs best option.
Defending the 989
The Chiefs have a few different options against this particular concept but the Bengals have come with more answers to these possible solutions this season.
Cover-2
The Chiefs have played Cover-2 the third most in the NFL this season and theoretically it can handle this concept very well. It bases with two high safeties that are responsible for picking up the outside vertical routes. They’ll have the over the top leverage which allows the corners to play physically without a fear of being beaten over the top.
The big issue with playing so much Cover-2 zone is the “hole shot” that is available on the outside between the cornerback and the safety. Joe Burrow has proven to be pretty good at making these throws and if the Chiefs get too predictable these types of throws are always going to be a possibility.
Bracket Coverage
Another simple idea is to simply bracket or double team outside receivers - or one of them - at all times. Just constantly have a safety helping an outside corner and providing two defenders for one receiver. Force the Bengals to work the ball underneath or over the middle of the field consistently.
This would have been a very sound strategy last season but this year the Bengals have been much more willing and efficient throwing over the middle of the field. Whether on deep Dig routes, Benders, or even up the seam they have found success picking apart defenses playing too wide over the middle of the field.
They’ve forced defenses into essentially picking their poison of adding help to the outside or to the middle of the field all year long.
How the Chiefs Can Stop the Bengals Offense
The answer is simple: get pressure while just rushing four. The Bengals’ offensive line still isn’t particularly good nor is Joe Burrow great at not taking sacks. Their desire to push the ball vertically paired with their personnel can lead to a lot of sacks. When that happens their offense really stalls out.
The qualm with the Chiefs in their matchups last year was a lack of consistent pressure without blitzing. Once forced to blitz the Bengals to create pressure, the 1-on-1 matchups become more plentiful and easier to find. The Chiefs have to avoid that on the back end and it will all start up front.
In terms of coverage, the Chiefs best bet may be a solid mixture of 2-Man coverage and versions of Tampa-2 or 2-Robber. Playing man to man with two high safeties will allow the man defenders to play in trial technique on a specific receiver shutting down the hole shot throws but still allow for aggressive CB play and have help over the top.
Tampa-2 and 2-Robber will allow the Chiefs’ deep safeties to play further outside or more aggressively on the outside routes since there will be an extra middle of the field defender designated to assist on deep routes. All of these strategies put a ton of pressure on the four man pass rush and linebackers to cover everything underneath but sacrifices will have to be made against a good Bengals’ offense.
Matchup to Watch: Juju Smith-Schuster vs. Cincinnati’s Zone Defense
The last time the Chiefs saw the Bengals, it was in a heartbreaking loss in last year’s AFC Championship game. One of the major storylines coming out of that game was Bengals’ defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo’s game plan to slow down Patrick Mahomes. While Anarumo used plenty of man coverage and bracketed Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill, his usage of a “drop 8, rush 3” zone scheme gave the Chiefs fits and limited their effectiveness in the second half of the game.
The 2022 Chiefs have seen it a bit throughout the year as teams have tried everything they could to stop this efficient offense once again – with some limited success. Anarumo’s defense has continued to utilize it, including some heavier usage last week against the Tennessee Titans. It’s reasonable to expect that the Bengals – who have thrown curveballs at the Chiefs in both the games they played last year – may turn to that zone look as part of the gameplan again this week.
If the Bengals do choose to lean on those particular zone coverages again this week, the Chiefs may see a big game out of Smith-Schuster. Throughout the year, Juju has been effective against all types of coverage, but his ability to find the seams in the zone has been exceptional. With Kelce garnering extra attention, Smith-Schuster can continually work off of him to find that extra space. The Chiefs have given both receivers the freedom to freelance a bit on their route tree as defenses present them varying coverages, and that freedom could pay dividends for both on Sunday.
However, Smith-Schuster’s ability to get vertical may be the key to beating this “drop 8” coverage scheme. The Bengals will flood the intermediate areas of the field – while still keeping multiple defenders near Kelce – which could leave some space over the top. Smith-Schuster hasn’t routinely attacked the deep areas of the field this season, and the combination of the coverage look with a bit more open playbook could result in more of those opportunities.
Furthermore, Smith-Schuster has as much – if not more – reason to get up for the Bengals matchup after his time in Pittsburgh. Juju has left multiple games against the Bengals due to injury due to big hits from the secondary and is surely wanting to put his stamp on this game. The perfect storm of a heavy zone gameplan, some tendency breakers, and some extra intensity may just brew up a big performance from Smith-Schuster on Sunday afternoon.
Bengals Game Bigger Than Revenge
The buzz around Chiefs-Bengals has only grown in the last 72 hours. With players chirping in interviews and on social media, true feelings are starting to leak out. There’s bad blood between these two teams. The trash talk immediately after the Bengals beat the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game is proof.
Both Patrick Mahomes and Chris Jones are wanting to get the bad taste out of their mouth they have from the game that ended their season last year. There’s extra motivation for a team that is 9-2 and sitting atop the AFC.
There really isn’t a need for additional motivation for this game to be big. The outlook of the Chiefs season can change drastically with a big road win over a likely AFC playoff team. The AFC West is in the Chiefs’ rear view mirror, and with the calendar turning to December, the end game is what we all start paying more attention to.
The homestretch isn’t looking particularly difficult for the Chiefs. Only one team currently has a winning record after this week — the fading Seattle Seahawks (6-5) will come to Arrowhead on Christmas Eve. There don’t seem to be many opportunities for the Chiefs to incur losses on their ledger.
According to FiveThirtyEight, the Chiefs chances of securing the one seed and the lone bye week in the AFC playoffs would increase to 75% with a victory this weekend. A loss would drop them down to 37% — and favor the Bills to earn pole position (42%).
The Chiefs can control their own fate in the AFC by running the table, and the odds of doing that go up significantly with a win.
So much about a victory over the Bengals could be satisfying. A loss would be pretty devastating for Chiefs fans, and their team’s chances of setting themselves up perfectly for hosting another AFC Championship.
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