Chiefs Travel to Houston as Heavy Favorites
The KC Laboratory team looks at what to pay attention to when the Chiefs play the Texans
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The Chiefs travel this week to Houston to play the Texans in an AFC game between teams on opposite end of the conference standings. Houston has only been able to pull off one victory so far this season and hosts the Chiefs as heavy underdogs.
The Chiefs are looking to build off their victory against division rival Denver and keep their hope alive of securing the one seed. Here’s what you need to know about Chiefs-Texans.
Scheme Spotlight
The Houston Texans are coached by Lovie Smith and like any Lovie Smith defense over the past few decades they major in the “Bend-Don’t-Break” philosophy. Unlike some of his defenses in the past, there is a lack of talent the Texans are dealing with so it does equate to more leaks than normal but the ideology is the same.
The Texans defense allows the 4th most yards per game given up and 7th - although practically tied with 5 other teams - in total points per game allowed. They allow teams to move up and down the field quite easily and are only slightly better at keeping them from scoring points. That gap comes almost entirely from their red zone defense.
Once teams enter the red zone, the Texans are only allowing a Touchdown on 52% of drives which is good for 7th best in the NFL. The defense does a really good job reducing space and forcing offenses to beat them through Field Goals once they get inside the 20 yard line.
Texans Red Zone Defense
The talent disparity between the two teams is immense and there - hopefully - won’t be too much to take away from his game from the Chiefs’ perspective. One area that the Texans can really challenge the Chiefs with is that red zone defense and it’s area that the Chiefs have struggled in a little bit the last few weeks (46% TD rate, compared to their season mark of 66%).
Closing Down the Middle of the Field
The Texans base the majority of their defense out of a two-high safety structure and they stick to that in the red zone. The difference is how they operate in this condensed space and where they try to force the offense to throw the ball. With defensive backs knowing they have help over the top by the backline of the endzone, they are much more willing to drive on shallow or intermediate routes.
They specifically do that when routes work into the middle of the field. The safeties are aware that they don’t have to defend over the top and take that opportunity to keep their eyes over the middle of the field. They don’t just see it, they attack it and take away that area of the field. Their ultimate goal is to force all the throws into the sideline where their CBs will be carrying vertical and reducing space for WRs to work with.
Bait-and-Switch
Offenses aren’t stupid. The Texans know that so they try to bait them into attacking the middle of the field through their pre-snap looks. They show the two high safeties and outside leverage from their cornerbacks. They are trying to funnel routes to the middle of the field and traditionally outside leverage CBs plus two high safeties equates to big issues over the middle of the field.
The thing is, the Texans also aren’t stupid. They will play a lot of Poach or Solo coverage in this scenario. This allows the weak safety to essentially cover a receiver crossing into the middle of the field but he’s doing so from the opposite side of the formation. It’s most commonly run against 3x1 offensive formations and allows the safety to the three wide receivers to not worry about maintaining inside leverage vs in-breaking routes.
Flying Downhill vs the Run
The Chiefs don’t usually try to pound the rock in the red zone but if they are to try it against the Texans they have to account for the safety in the run fit. Similar to their coverage philosophy, the safeties can attack aggressively knowing there isn’t space to be threatened vertically off play-action.
When unaccounted for, Jalen Pitre has been exceptional running the alley and stopping runners near the line of scrimmage. He’s getting downhill so fast that the runners are being forced to take 1 on 1s with him in the hole rather than beyond it and that reduced space plays into his hands.
How the Chiefs Can Stop the Broncos Pressure
The Texans play really sound, well coached defense in the red zone meaning they won’t give up anything easy. It’s simply going to be all about execution and not always taking what the Texans are showing pre-snap. The middle of the field will always present as open but the windows close fast. Unless the Chiefs can create some horizontal stretch elements - such as utilizing the jet motion game in the red zone again - they may just be better off working elsewhere.
The Texans want teams to work the ball outside in this area of the field but maybe the Chiefs should simply try just that. Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Juju Smith-Schuster, and Jody Fortson have all made quality catches with contact along the sideline this year so why not give them a few shots. They will have isolated match-ups to set-up two-way goes on their routes and could have a big game if trusted to win in those spots.
When the Chiefs do try to run in the red zone, just make sure to account for the safeties in some fashion. That can be a WR stalk blocking up to them rather than a corner, it can be an offensive lineman on the climb, or even as simple as pre-snap motion that is designed to pull them out of the fit. It isn’t specific but there has to be something in the game plan or the Texans’ safeties will meet ball carriers in the hole routinely.
Matchup to Watch: Jalen Pitre vs. Chiefs Intermediate Receivers
Looking up and down the Houston Texans’ healthy depth chart likely doesn’t instill much fear in the hearts of Kansas City Chiefs’ fans. The Texans are missing some of their very best players at impact positions, while the few other plus starters are banged up coming into a game that has little bearing on their season. Coming off an emotional loss against an in-state rival, it would be understandable if the Texans were playing a game that wasn’t their best – or if their players were spending a few more snaps looking after their own health.
One player who has not been packing it in this season is Texans rookie Jalen Pitre. The early second round pick out of Baylor has made his presence felt throughout the season with some bone-crushing hits and some good play on balls thrown his direction. His intensity has only ramped up as the season has gone along, totaling 25 solo tackles, 4 PBU’s, and 1 interception over the course of the last three weeks. Turning on the tape, you see a player lurking in the middle of the field, just waiting for a crossing route to lay a big hit upon.
Patrolling that area of the field means that Pitre will see two of the Chiefs’ top pass catchers in Travis Kelce and Juju Smith-Schuster. Kelce obviously presents the biggest matchup for Pitre, as he is head and shoulders above any tight end that Pitre has seen this year. Only Dallas Goedert and Dalton Schultz would be considered amongst the NFL’s top tiers at tight end this year, and both led their teams in targets and yardage – Goedert 100 yards, 1 TD; Schultz 87 yards – against the Texans. After a quiet (for him) last couple of weeks, Kelce is looking at a prime matchup if he can avoid the big-hitting ability of Pitre on the back end.
Smith-Schuster is also one to watch, perhaps for a bit of a different reason. The Chiefs wide receiver is entirely unafraid of contact in the middle of the field, willing to dish out the physicality to match the levels brought by the defense. That might lead to some massive hits – for both sides – when neither Smith-Schuster nor Pitre are willing to back out of a challenge. Based on the way both players play, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some fireworks and extracurriculars in the second half of this week’s matchup.
The Chiefs have a clear advantage in the middle of the field – one that other offenses that aren’t as tight end-heavy have utilized, let alone Kansas City. However, one of the few playmakers on the Texans’ offense will be lurking all game long, waiting to make a big play. If the Chiefs can get the better of those matchups throughout the day, this game may get out of hand in a hurry.
Number to Watch: 9
Second year tight end Noah Gray has been getting more and more involved in the offense as the season has gone on. The former Duke Blue Devil has earned opportunities to see the field with improvements as a blocker and in earning the trust of quarterback Patrick Mahomes.
He’s become a valuable asset and the Chiefs are lucky to have the former fifth round pick — another good value from the 2021 NFL Draft.
Gray is seeking his ninth straight game with 10+ receiving yards. He’s hit that mark in all but two games this entire season. During this eight game streak, he’s averaged 22.3 yards receiving per game — more than doubling what he did in the first five games of the season (11 yards per game).
Gray’s had 45 yards receiving in a game twice this season — more than his entire yardage total the regular season his rookie year.
Mahomes has been finding Gray in different areas of the field — a little more downfield than it has been. There’s diversity to how he’s getting the ball and the frequency he’s been getting. Not only has he doubled his production, but he’s getting targeted more. He’s had multiple catches in all but two games in the streak.
Gray averaged 5.5 yards per target before the streak, and is average 9.9 yards per target since the volume uptick. Things are looking bright as Gray continues to develop, and this week could provide an opportunity for him to build on his success to date.
You can usually find a Gray receiving prop on DraftKings between 9-13 yards receiving. It might be worth examining when it comes available.
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How the Chiefs Can Stop the Broncos Pressure