Chiefs Travel To Las Vegas For Massive Regular Season Finale
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The Chiefs head to Las Vegas to take on the Raiders in the regular season finale. The Chiefs have a lot to play for this week, and while the Raiders are already disqualified from the playoffs.
Here’s what you need to know about a crucial matchup.
What’s At Stake In Week 18
It has been an emotional week for the NFL. The traumatic incident on Monday Night Football with Damar Hamlin’s collapse has shocked players, coaches, and fans across the nation. The aftermath of the suspended game is starting to be revealed.
The impact of the Bills-Bengals game was going to play a key role in the results of practically every seed in the AFC, and the winner of the AFC North.
The game has officially been cancelled — and with an imbalance of games played for the qualifying participants of the AFC playoff pool, measures are being taken to adjust the schedule to make things more equitable for three teams that were fighting for the one seed.
Friday afternoon, NFL owners will vote on a special resolution on how to navigate the scenarios that could present themselves in the AFC playoffs as a result of the Bill-Bengals being cancelled. The resolution would move a potential Chiefs-Bills AFC Championship Game to a neutral site as means to create a level fairness in response to the cancellation.
By all indications, winning percentage will be followed as the guideline for who will earn the one seed and lone bye in the AFC. This is still the most valuable reward and advantage a team can acquire.
The Chiefs would secure the highest winning percentage in the conference if they are able to beat the Raiders on Saturday. That would ensure that the Chiefs would only have to play one of Buffalo and Cincinnati in their path to a championship. And if it winds up Buffalo, that game will likely be at a TBD location — not Arrowhead.
All in all, this feels like a fair trade for the Chiefs. They would still get the luxury of a bye week while other teams have to play an extra game to win the right to advance to a Super Bowl. Sacrificing a home game seems completely reasonable — especially considering what Buffalo and Cincinnati have been through in the last week.
It’s a difficult scenario the league has tried to navigate. Under the circumstances, it feels fair. If the Chiefs secure their 14th win of the regular season, it will be rewarded. A massive game with the Raider looms.
Scheme Spotlight
The first time the Chiefs and Raiders took the field against one another the game came down to the final possession as the Chiefs’ defense was able to stop the Raiders on 4th down. The Chiefs offense put up a quality 30 points but the defense really struggled to get stops against a very inconsistent Raiders’ offense. More specifically, they struggled to slow down the Raiders rushing attack led by Josh Jacobs.
The Raiders ran for 155 yards on the Chiefs (2nd most on the year) and averaged 6.6 yards per carry (the most against the Chiefs all year). The Chiefs’ pass defense wasn’t exceptional in the matchup but a lot of the Raiders’ passing success came on the back of play-action passing, including a 58 yard Touchdown to Devante Adams.
The Chiefs’ defense hasn’t been great in 2022 but this performance may have been one of their worst. Even more so than the production they allowed was the manner in which they did. The Raiders had their way with one of the simplest run plays in all of football and actually provided a blueprint the Buffalo Bills were able to utilize the very next week.
Stopping the Raiders Iso Run Game
The HB Iso run is one of the most basic in all of football. All five offensive linemen will be blocking a player on the line of scrimmage, which depending on alignment will equate to one or two double teams. The goal of the double teams isn’t to have a blocker break off of it and work up to a linebacker but rather to drive the line of scrimmage player into the LB on the backside play instead.
The Iso is usually run to the strongside of the formation - or to the tight end side - allowing the tight end to kick-out the end man on the line of scrimmage (EMOLOS). The Raiders liked to deploy a sixth offensive lineman in this role to ensure they could handle that kick-out block on the Chiefs quality run defending defensive ends.
With every line of scrimmage player accounted for from either advantageous angles (the kick-out block) or superior mass (double teams) the final step is the play-side linebacker. This is the “Iso” part of the run as the full back gets isolated against the linebacker in the hole. As long as the offensive lineman can widen their blocks, the fullback should have a head of steam to meet the linebacker a few yards beyond the line of scrimmage and give the halfback a two-way go.
If the defenders aren’t winning these one-on-one blocks or defeating their double teams it creates a lot of potential space for the ball carrier. This puts a ton of pressure on the safeties - and corners - to step up and fit the run. With the FB leading through a hole, it creates a second gap that someone has to be available to fill. This is often called “running the alley” for a defender working from depth or outside of the box.
The Chiefs struggled mightily with this concept earlier in the season. From late fits, to incorrect gaps, and to missed tackles they simply didn’t do a very good job in this role. Whether it was a distrust in the cornerback room vs the Raider receivers or just simply poor play, the safeties were constantly late to insert into the run fit which was extra puzzling given the jumbo package.
How the Chiefs Can Defend the Raiders HB Iso
The simplest option is just to play the strong safety closer to the box or at least have them rolling downhill at the snap. When the Raiders opt to go into their jumbo package, there is no threat from a receiving tight end and the Chiefs have to trust their CB room enough to get out of their two-deep structure.
Having an improved L’Jarius Sneed and a healthy Trent McDuffie in this game should help with the comfort level of trusting them 1-on-1 on the outside in these situations. Play more single high vs these looks and dare Jarrett Stidham to beat them over the top consistently enough to win the game.
One thing the Raiders did do to counter this concept is send their Z WR - to the same side as the TE - to block the strong safety rather than the corner. When they felt the safety was going to spin down into the box, the WR would bypass the corner and stalk block the safety. If the corner is hesitant at all to identify the run play or to fill into the alley, there is a big enough crease that a runner already moving downhill can scoot by.
This happened a handful of times to the Chiefs in the first matchup and conveniently all of the incidents were at the expense of Rashad Fenton. He was a tick late filling the created gap outside of the FB iso block and allowed Josh Jacobs to pick up big yards. The Chiefs need full buy-in from both safeties and both cornerbacks to defend this HB Iso run from the Raiders this time around or it could be another tough day for the run defense.
Matchup to Watch: L’Jarius Sneed vs. Davante Adams
Over the past several weeks, the Kansas City Chiefs defense has seen a somewhat-major shift in their secondary. It’s not been the improvement in play of safety Justin Reid – although that has been an excellent development – and it hasn’t been the increasing snap counts attributed to Jaylen Watson over Joshua Williams. No, the big shift in the secondary has been L’Jarius Sneed shadowing the opposition’s #1 receiver over the past two weeks when the Chiefs were in man coverage.
This development really came to light against the Seattle Seahawks, where Sneed aligned opposite of DK Metcalf for most of the day. Metcalf posted good numbers (7 receptions for 81 yards on 9 targets), but 43% of his yardage came on one contested catch. Sneed allowed just 5.38 yards per target the rest of the day, helping to close out the Seahawks’ only true receiving threat. The following week showed a further improvement as Sneed shadowed Jerry Jeudy for most of the day. He allowed 3 catches for 29 yards on 4 targets – as well as hauling in an interception – for a stellar day in the Chiefs’ secondary.
It stands to reason, then, that when the Chiefs line up in man coverage this week against the Las Vegas Raiders, Sneed may shadow Devontae Adams. Adams is having a stellar year despite the Raiders’ struggles, posting 95 catches for 1443 yards and 14 touchdowns. He has the highest yards per reception of his career in the 2022 season, and is just 110 yards away from his season high in yardage for his career.
The switch in quarterback for the Raiders doesn’t appear to have affected Adams’ production, either. Against the San Francisco 49ers, quarterback Jarrett Stidham threw for 365 yard and three touchdowns while not taking a sack against one of the best defenses in the NFL. Adams was the primary beneficiary, seeing 11 targets, hauling in 7, and contributing 153 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns. That was Adams’ second-best performance of the year – the other coming against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 13 – with a backup quarterback…against one of the NFL’s best units.
Sneed will have his hands full on Saturday if the Chiefs choose to shadow Adams in man coverage. He’s been listed as questionable on the injury report with a hip injury after being limited in practice all week, compounding some of the potential pressure of shadowing Adams. However, Sneed offers the best opportunity to line up and take away Adams in man coverage if healthy, which has been the key to the Chiefs’ four-man rush getting home more often as the season has progressed. If Sneed can help limit Adams on Saturday, Stidham might have to leave his comfort zone – which could lead to more opportunities for negative plays and stops for this Chiefs defense.
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