Chiefs vs. Bengals AFC Championship Preview: Scheme Spotlight, Matchups to Watch, and more
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The Lamar Hunt Trophy is again on the line for the Chiefs as they host the Cincinnati Bengals in Arrowhead for a shot at their third straight Super Bowl appearance.
Here’s what you need to know:
Scheme Spotlight
In this Chiefs-Bengals rematch, the storylines are pretty streamlined and simple for the most part. Both defenses struggled to stop the opposing offense for much of the first matchup and there is no reason to anticipate that being too different this time around. After seeing the Chiefs’ offense play a fantastic game against one of the best defenses in the NFL in the AFC Divisional Round, the expectation is they’ll keep that momentum rolling into this game.
The question becomes, “How does the Chiefs defense adjust to the first matchup and get just one or two more stops throughout the game?”. The Chiefs’ didn’t have a great answer in the first game as the Bengals found early success throwing quick to the outside to set up some of the vertical shots on the homerun plays. They tried to play coverage, tried to play trap coverage, and even tried to blitz but nothing seemed to lead to consistent stops.
If the Chiefs want to avoid making the same mistake twice, they should lean heavily into what the Tennessee Titans did to really stifle the Bengals’ offense.
Utilizing Simulated Pressures
Simulated pressures is a generic term in the football world right now but it refers to aligning the defense in a specific way that it looks like six or more defenders are rushing the passer. For every coach there will be a more detailed description - and you get into the use of other terms like Creeper pressures, Mugging gaps, etc - but the general concept is trying to create confusion among the offensive line’s pass protection call and what players are actually rushing the passer.
While it looks like six or more defenders are rushing, usually all but four or five drop out and play any form of coverage behind it. The goal isn’t always to get a free rusher at the quarterback - although overload principles certainly come into effect - but oftentimes is just to ensure the defense gets a favorable one-on-one matchup of their choosing.
The Titans opted not to mug - align second level defenders on the line of scrimmage - for many of their simulated pressures but it didn’t matter. They opted to use some fake drive steps pre-snap and just constant movement to present themselves at potential rush threats and manipulate the Bengals protection calls.
By pairing those simulated pressures with various stunts and twists along the defense line, they were frequently able to ensure they got a preferred one-on-one matchup. Most of these came off the right side of the Bengals offensive line, most noticeably Jeffery Simmons working against Right Guard Hakeem Adeniji.
With the center initially setting to take on a blitzing linebacker, he’s not in position to help with Simmons at first. Then the flash of the left defensive end looping over the top holds him there a step longer allowing Simmons to take full advantage of the one-on-one opportunity.
There will also be times the defense is able to dial up a pressure that comes away from the offensive lines’ protection call and creates an overload concept with more rushers than blockers to one side. On this play, the Titans are mugging the line of scrimmage and it forces the Bengals into a basic full slide protection.
This means every offensive linemen slides to the same side - left in this case - and blocks that defender and any remaining defender off the right side is up to the quarterback to beat. That ultimately resulted in the Titans getting two rushers matched up with the right tackle and a free rusher at the quarterback.
The other really cool thing on this play was the pop-out technique by the interior Titans’ defenders. They attacked the offensive lineman that was in front of them, put hands on them, and then backed out into coverage. This holds the offensive lineman in their current position but also allows the defender to insert into coverage late and can result in the quarterback holding the football.
Once an offense starts to get a read on the defense is when the real fun begins. If the offense starts sorting out the simulated pressures really well and picking up all the rushers, then the defense can align in the same exact look but actually bring all of the defenders near the line of scrimmage.
As an offense falls victim to giving up pressure to blitzes, they often respond with quick throws or adding more players into the pass protection call. Now, the simulated pressures are back on deck and dropping defenders can undercut quick passes or offensive players are late to get into their routes as they initially set for pass protection. It’s a massive game of cat and mouse but when one team has such an advantage in the one-on-one matchups like the Chiefs do, it’s an effective strategy to control the pacing of the game.
The Bengals Will Need A Lot to Go Wrong for the Chiefs…Again
The Chiefs have done it the hard way this season. The 3-4 start was frustrating — especially considering they were dominated by teams jockeying for pole position in the AFC. Yet the team clawed all the way back to the top of the conference.
They were two wins away from securing the bye — and the last major hurdle was a road matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. experienced calf tightness shortly before the game and was a late scratch. To add insult to injury (or is it injury to injury?) the man who slid over to play left tackle in his absence — Lucas Niang — was carted off with a season ending injury.
Left guard Joe Thuney was thrust into duty at left tackle — forcing even more of a reshuffling along the offensive line tasked with holding up to protect Patrick Mahomes.
All the chaos didn’t really matter because after a 3-and-out the Chiefs rattled off four straight touchdown drives. They were humming despite an extremely rare occurrence — being down to your third option at the most important offensive line position.
The Chiefs were up 28-17 with 41 seconds left in the second quarter — about to receive the kick off. A lot of bad things happen from that point on. A Zayne Anderson holding penalty negated a kick off return for a touchdown by Byron Pringle.
A few plays later, Mahomes made a remarkable throw that Tyreek Hill dropped on the Bengals’ ten yard line. The Chiefs were at minimum going to score three points in that possession — and would’ve had at least one shot in the end zone.
Ja’Marr Chase had a great first half of that game, but went historic for the remainder of it. The Chiefs busted coverage on the opening possession, and Chase turned it into a long touchdown — his third of the game.
A Travis Kelce drop kept the Chiefs’ opening drive of the second half from getting to Bengals’ territory — instead resulting in a punt. The Chiefs would get only three precious possessions in the second half — an uncommonly low number. Only one of them was in the fourth quarter.
Part of the contributing factor was what appeared to be a stronger desire to run the football — perhaps trying to manage the remainder of the game with a lead and get out of there without any additional attrition to the offensive line.
After all, the Chiefs only possessed the football once while trailing in the game and promptly tied it with their third and final drive of the second half.
The penalties — or in some cases lack there of — were sometimes horrific. No one watching that game believed that Cincinnati didn't benefit from the whistle from that group of officials thrown together in the middle of the week. The timeliness of those penalties couldn’t have been worse — with four scoring drives being extended in favor of the Bengals.
Chase ended with 266 yards and three touchdowns — the greatest rookie receiving performance in NFL history. He was on the receiving end of a 3rd and 27 conversion late in the game that extended the Bengals’ game winning drive.
The teams replayed 4th down and goal with under a minute three times — with two penalties on the Chiefs giving the Bengals a fresh set of downs and multiple opportunities. A missed false start by the Bengals loomed large.
All this and the Chiefs trailed for only about six minutes in the game. The Bengals kicked the game winner as time expired — after going out of their way to keep the ball away from Mahomes with any time to spare.
Despite a historic performance from the opposition, bad injury luck, the worst officiating of the year, key drops and more, the Chiefs found themselves tied with a few seconds remaining on the clock.
All these things don’t seem doomed to repeat themselves. Even one of these things changing could’ve affected the outcome of this game — on the road no less.
The Chiefs have the Bengals coming to Arrowhead with everything on the line. If you think there will be an emotional letdown after one of the greatest games ever played, I think you’re mistaken.
This group has pride. You don’t think the cornerback room is excited to show that the last matchup was an anomaly? I do. Their opponent left a bad taste in their mouth — much like the last opponent they just played.
In the 2019 season, the second seeded Chiefs came back in improbable fashion in the Divisional Round to avenge their week five loss to the Houston Texans. They would go on to beat the team that handed them their last loss of the season — the Tennessee Titans — in the AFC Championship.
In the 2021 season, the second seeded Chiefs came back in improbable fashion in the Divisional Round to avenge their week five loss to the Buffalo Bills. The stage is set for history to repeat itself yet again — and hopefully it can end with a parade like 2019 did.
It’s going to take a lot of things going wrong again for this team to fall short of the ultimate goal. They had no business losing the game in Cincinnati, and they have no business losing this game at Arrowhead with a chance to hoist another Lamar Hunt Trophy.
Matchup to Watch: Ja’Marr Chase vs Charvarius Ward
I mean, what other matchup could this be?
These two teams met in Week 17 of the regular season, and there were fireworks. While the matchup to watch in that particular game was Chris Jones against the Cincinnati Bengals interior offensive line – which was and still is a massive tilt in the Chiefs favor – the major storyline coming out of that game was Chase’s ability to torch the Chiefs cornerbacks. Chase had 11 receptions for 266 yards and 3 touchdowns on the day while winning some crucial 50/50 balls and making quarterback Joe Burrow “right” on the boundary.
Many of those throws came against the Chiefs primary boundary cornerback: Charvarius Ward. Prior to Week 17, Ward had been “following” the opposition’s best receiver for stretches of the game (only on the boundary, not in the slot) and had shut down some truly great receivers when doing so. It was expected that Ward would draw more of Chase in coverage, and he did – to the tune of 13.86 yards per target. Chase was consistently able to win at the catch point over Ward, and he was able to get behind him as a vertical threat on the boundary – making life difficult on a defense that wants to force those types of throws, but not force them into much tighter coverage.
Ward struggled in the next matchup he saw (against the Denver Broncos) before rebounding against the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Wild Card round and the Buffalo Bills in the Divisional Round. He’s playing with a confidence similar to that going into that first Bengals matchup again, which begs the question: which player are the Chiefs going to get on Sunday?
Ward is certainly a better player than what he exhibited against the Bengals, so there should be an expected uptick on the outside from him. However, Chase is still going to get ample opportunities in this Bengals offense – and he very well may convert those opportunities into big plays. He’s just that good of a receiver in a passing game that will stress the throws that Spagnuolo is willing to give up. If Ward is left to his own devices on the outside again all game, we could very well see a repeat of the Week 17 matchup.
With that in mind, Steve Spagnuolo could choose to implement more vertical brackets on Chase to limit his ability to win on those boundary verticals. Rolling a safety over the top of Chase as often as possible can allow the Chiefs defenders to play even more physical with him at the line of scrimmage – where he can expose his chest against press coverage a bit more than some other elite receivers – and not have to worry about giving up the explosive play as often. The Chiefs leaned heavily on 2-read and trap coverages underneath in the first matchup – taking away the out routes that are a staple of the Bengals offense – and that led to some late safety rotations. By aligning the Safety more to the boundary/over the top of Chase, the speed of that rotation isn’t as important to the secondary.
Unfortunately, that can leave the middle of the field more open than Spagnuolo typically likes. Tyrann Mathieu’s return will certainly help with some of that, but Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and CJ Uzomah are all capable of working the middle of the field when teams try to run stud or bracket coverages on Chase. Simply bracketing him all game long isn’t an option, as Burrow and the rest of his weapons can take full advantage of what the defense will give him, and can still put lots of points on the board.
That’s why it will fall to Ward to win more often than not when Spagnuolo is not throwing help his way. If Ward can press Chase effectively at the line to disrupt timing on the route – and the Chiefs defensive line can put quick pressure on Burrow – this matchup could tilt heavily in the Chiefs’ favor without having to drastically change Spagnuolo’s scheme. The Bengals can (and will) adjust to feed Chase the ball outside of some of the normal structure of the offense in that scenario, but that’s something the defense is more than happy to live with in a game that could see lots of points on the board. Ward stepping up and playing well against one of the league’s best young weapons could almost singlehandedly frustrate the Bengals offense – and potentially help book the Chiefs’ ticket to their third straight Super Bowl.