Chiefs vs. Bengals Game Preview: Scheme Spotlight, Matchups to Watch, and More
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The Kansas City Chiefs (11-4) and Cincinnati Bengals (9-6) meet at Paul Brown Stadium on Sunday with a 12:00 pm CST kickoff in pivotal regular season matchup with massive playoff implications.
Here’s what you need to know:
Scheme Spotlight
Preparing for one specific scheme against the Cincinnati Bengals defense can be a futile task. As a whole, the Bengals are around league average in terms of Cover-1, Cover-2 (zone), and Cover-3 coverage, meaning they utilize an equal amount of all three coverages. Their blitz rate isn’t particularly high despite being effective and any given week it can be a man to man or zone heavy game plan.
They simply do a little bit of everything including adding a “brand new wrinkle” each week. One week it may be playing with increasingly deep linebacker splits, the next a heavy dose of Tampa-2 coverage, followed by a three deep safety zone coverage just to keep their opponents on their toes. When an offense has to prepare for just about everything, it makes it hard to really hammer home one specific scheme to attack but there’s always something.
Post-Snap Movement
The two constants in the Bengals defensive approach are aggression and post-snap movement. Speaking to the first point, this is a great week for the Chiefs’ to work on double moves and shot plays because the Bengals secondary will give up dynamic plays over the top. Their safeties are playmakers but are prone to over-pursuing underneath routes leaving their tops open.
While susceptible to big plays over the Bengals do make it hard on offenses by consistently shifting post-snap. They try to make the quarterback’s pre-snap reads “wrong” as much as possible by dropping players into different zone, exchanging zone responsibilities, or cutting crossing routes. Very rarely will the Bengals maintain the same coverage principles they flash pre-snap and oftentimes it’s significant changes on the field.
This can result in the defense making big plays, catching the offense off-guard and leading to a turnover. It also makes the defenders’ jobs a lot harder more often than not. Not only does everyone have to be on the same page on the adjustments, they have to all do so at the same time, and understand the types of routes they’ll be taking in their new assignments.
Smart quarterbacks and receivers can be on high-alert and make subtle adjustments to route breaks, option routes, or even wholesale route changes when they see these switches happening. A safety buzzing down to play a hook zone is more likely to keep driving in the same direction rather than pull off and undercut a Dig route that’s already progressing by him. A nickel cornerback sliding out into cloud coverage is less likely to sink under a Deep Over from the backside than he is to drive on a Flat route in front of him.
In any traditional coverage, all these examples can still be successful but it’s often a lot easier to handle various routes into an if the defender is already there. Having to rush at full speed to fill the vacated zone while reading the two to three possible routes into the area is a difficult task and it’s one the Bengals have fallen on the wrong side of more than once.
It’s going to be paramount for Patrick Mahomes to quickly identify these post-snap shifts and not get caught guessing on the wrong coverage. Quickly progressing through his reads as soon as he sees that post-snap motion and finding the next opening. His receivers - especially Travis Kelce who is his go-to guy in these scenarios - will also have to be on alert to know when to cut outside rather than inside or settle into a zone versus running through it based on the coverage adjustments. There are a lot of potential yards on the table for the Chiefs if they’re on their A-game but any lapses could lead to a big defensive play for Cincinnati.
We’re All Dolphins Fans
If you can find yourself at a location with NFL Sunday Ticket, this is the week to do it. Sunday at Noon (CST), no one is going to judge you if the attention you normally pay the Chiefs is shared with what happens in Tennessee at the same time.
The Chiefs are sitting pretty in their pursuit of the much coveted one seed — and lone bye week in the AFC. Win the next two games, and the Chiefs secure an extra week’s rest and an extra week of stress free football watching.
It’s an extremely important piece of the formula for securing a spot in the Super Bowl — historically teams that have to play on Wild Card Weekend are severely disadvantaged with their odds of winning their conference.
There is now only one team that can unseat the Chiefs from the one seed if they’re to lose one of the next two games — the Tennessee Titans (10-5). Last week, the Bills (9-6) beat the Patriots (9-6) — putting the Kansas City (11-4) two games up on both teams.
The Chiefs clearly control their own destiny, but a slip up on Sunday could be negated by the white hot Miami Dolphins beating the Titans on Sunday. It’d be a massive development that could allow them to lock things up this week if they beat Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals.
Week 18 could be an additional week of rest and preparation for the playoff field — as key starters could sit the final week of the season with business taken care of on Sunday.
The formula for a playoff run is being healthy, rested, and playing your best football at the right time. The Chiefs are certainly trending towards peaking in January — and getting to coast into the playoffs while everyone else jockeys for position below them is a major win as they look to return to their third straight Super Bowl.
The Dolphins have handed the Chiefs a one seed before — a final week surprise in their upset of the New England Patriots. The Chiefs capitalized and won their championship in 50 years off the backs of favorable position.
A stress-free Week 18 would be welcome — but the Chiefs need some help to do it. And the only team that can give them that opportunity is Brian Flores’ Dolphins.
If you have teal socks, jewelry, hats, maybe add it to your red and gold attire this weekend.
We’re all Dolphins fans on Sunday.
Matchup to Watch: Bengals OL vs Chiefs DL
Typically when I go into these “Matchup to Watch” sections, I try to get into more specific player on player matchups, but this week is a little more broad — and one of the spots that could tilt this game completely in the Chiefs favor. While the Bengals offense is certainly capable of going blow for blow with the Chiefs, one of their biggest weaknesses comes when trying to protect Joe Burrow.
Despite owning the league’s seventh highest scoring offense, the Bengals rank 19th in offensive DVOA due to a bit of an inconsistent offense from drive to drive. This can be attributed to the Bengals having the third highest sack rate (8.8%) in the NFL behind the Seattle Seahawks and Chicago Bears. Burrow and his weapons are certainly dangerous when dropping back to pass, but he also takes more hits and sacks than the majority of the other quarterbacks in the league.
This is almost entirely due to poor offensive line play across the board. Left tackle Jonah Williams and left guard Quinton Spain have been average to slightly-above average players as of late, but that’s where the positives end. Right tackle Isaiah Prince is filling in for an injured Riley Reiff and has been beaten badly by technical rushers with good handwork — something the Chiefs possess in spades with their defensive end rotation. Prince also seems to still be learning some of the protections and blocking assignments, which is to be expected when thrust into the lineup.
Center Trey Hopkins is a better pass protector than a run blocker and has allowed just six pressures over the last six weeks — the best mark on this offensive line. However, he hasn’t faced an elite interior outside of Cameron Heyward (1 sack, 1 pressure in a game the Bengals were in control and didn’t throw much) and will see easily the best interior defensive line group he’s seen all year.
While Hopkins has been better since Cincinnati’s bye week, right guard Hakeem Adeniji has really struggled. It has seemed that no matter the matchup, Adeniji has struggled with his assignment. Power, speed, technique — you name it, he’s been beaten by it this season. Bengals fans have called for rookie Jackson Carman to replace him at right guard, but the former Kansas University player still holds down the fort.
This Bengals offensive line has seen some good EDGE rushers in recent history (both Bosa brothers in the past 4 weeks), and those matchups have tilted in the favor of the opposition. However, those defensive lines have not had the same quality throughout the group that the Chiefs have. Since Melvin Ingram arrived in Kansas City, the Chiefs have gotten pressure on over 40% of their four-man rush attempts — one of the highest rates in the league. That number might increase against an offensive line that has struggled to protect Burrow throughout the year.
The Bengals offense is dynamic, vertical, and has weapons that could win matchups against the Chiefs defense all game long. It is entirely possible that this game is a thrilling offensive showdown featuring two of 2021’s best quarterbacks. However, it is just as possible that the Chiefs four-man front of Frank Clark, Chris Jones, Jarran Reed, and Ingram — as well as Tershawn Wharton, Alex Okafor, and Mike Danna — absolutely destroy the Bengals game plan up front due to quick and consistent pressure.
The old adage is that the “game is won in the trenches”. While that’s still true, offenses and defenses have adapted so much in recent history that the focus on quality line play has shifted somewhat. The Chiefs defensive line not only has a chance to put the focus back on them this Sunday against the Bengals in a game-wrecking performance, they’ve also got a chance to put the league on notice entering the playoffs.