Chiefs vs. Bills Playoff Preview: Scheme Spotlight, Matchups to Watch, and More
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The Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills meet at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday night in the AFC Divisional round.
Here’s what you need to know:
Scheme Spotlight
The Chiefs and Bills faced off once already this season but there really isn’t a ton that should be taken away from that game for this rematch for the Bills. Very little about what the Chiefs were doing in that game is going to be replicated in this matchup and spending significant time trying to replicate that performance could be a grave mistake.
On the flip side, the Bills likely should fall back on some of the stuff that worked in that matchup because it did in fact work once already. One of the big scheme adjustments that the Bills’ made in that first matchup was playing a ton of man coverage on third and short to medium. A predominantly zone team under Sean McDermott, the Bills opted to play a ton of Cover-1 Robber in the first matchup against the Chiefs.
Defeating Cover-1 Robber With Mesh
Since the loss of Tre'Davious White, the Bills have played a lot less man to man coverage. Losing a star corner will certainly have that impact on a defense but that coverage diversity was a big part of the Bills’ defensive success. The one area they still try to fall back on man coverage is on third and short to medium.
Chiefs fans may remember seeing Cover-1 Robber in the first Chiefs-Bills matchup on Jordan Poyer’s ‘Pick 6’. After the ball careened off Tyreek Hill’s hands, Poyer intercepted it and returned it for a Touchdown. They ran this same coverage multiple other times in similar situations to good success. So how do the Chiefs’ beat it?
Beating man coverage is often pretty simple. Option one is simply to have better receivers than the opponent has coverage players. The Chiefs should be able to check this box in this game but a well prepared defense can utilize man coverage in the right situation and still have success.
So the second option is being discussed in the above video - make sure to check out the KCSN Discord for a longer look at beating Cover-1 Robber - is scheming guys open on man beating concepts. One of the most famous of these concepts is Mesh, or two shallow crossing routes run right by each other in terms of depth. This forces defenders to adjust their path when chasing these crossers and often results in one player running wide open.
Against 2-Man coverage, mesh is a play call that most offenses will run over and over because there is no potential help. Cover-1 Robber at least places another free defender into the middle of the field that can impact crossing routes so it’s important for the Chiefs to keep that in mind.
On this game-winning Touchdown by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Bills played the cousin of Cover-1 Robber, known as Cover-1 Rat. It’s the same coverage concept just with a linebacker playing as the free defender in the middle of the field. The Buccaneers utilize a switch release to the strong side to gain initial separation and then run the receiver through the Mesh concept.
The Chiefs have proven they can get into various types of Mesh concepts - out of 3x1 formations, 2x2 formations, utilizing their running backs, etc - so seeing a heavy dose of these concepts on third and short to medium shouldn’t come as a surprise. It’s high leverage situational football that often can make or break these close games and nothing better defines that than third down execution.
Expect Something Special on Sunday
Chiefs and Bills fans are cut from the same cloth.
We are fans of teams in the some of the smallest markets in the NFL. We’ve had a long stretch of irrelevancy — and our drought of mediocre to bad football was halted by an elite quarterback.
I’ve talked to Bills fans this week, and emotionally they sit where we were two years ago. The Chiefs had yet to win a Super Bowl, but a new era of football opened up in Kansas City with the beginning of the Patrick Mahomes era.
We had fallen just short of reaching the Super Bowl the year prior, and were hungry, excitable, and still in disbelief of how our fortunes had changed. But the monkey was still on our back. The monster was still around the corner.
Something in the back of our head was still wondering if we’d ever get over the hump. There was simply too many scars from wasted seasons past. The anxiety was real — it could be felt when the Chiefs fell down 24-0 against the Texans in the Divisional round.
Bills fans are feeling those same things on the cusp of this game against the Chiefs. They have their guy in Josh Allen — a player who has exceeded expectations and changed the forums of the franchise. The pain of their past still lingers. Sure, they’ve been spoiled by their quarterback’s success, but until they take the next step — until Allen can breakthrough to the Super Bowl it’s going to hurt like crazy.
Mahomes Mania came fast and furious in 2018. He changed football forever with the kind of freedom and creativity he played with. The Chiefs were the Golden State Warriors of football — an offense that stretched the ideas of what was possible on the football field. They set the world on fire offensively.
The entirety of the 2018 season was a lot of “pinch me” moments as fans. We kept seeing our quarterback do more and more amazing things. He kept exceeding expectations. Even in their AFC Championship Game loss to the Patriots, Mahomes brought them on the cusp. Most fans wonder what happens if he gets the ball to start that overtime — and they should because he was dealing.
He continued his ascent in 2019 — and finally brought the Lamar Hunt Trophy home. He played with an “over my dead body” mentality (RIP Terez) through the playoffs, and brought his team back to win their first Super Bowl in 50 years.
He got them over the hump. We lifted a lot of anxiety off the shoulders of fans that were still cautiously optimistic that it would happen some day. Not due to a lack of confidence in Mahomes, but history.
We’re beyond spoiled in Kansas City with what we have — and that the weight has finally been lifted. I say it all the time, but Mahomes has normalized greatness, and we’ve just become accustomed to a new normal. We’re numb to the process, to the difficulty of achieving what they have in a short amount of time. Winning is hard, and we take it for granted.
The way this season has gone to this point has at least put some hesitancy into the mind of Chiefs fans. Things haven’t come as easy as they did last season — they started 3-4, blew their chance at the one seed, and are 0-3 against the remaining teams in the AFC.
A little doubt has creeped into the minds of fans. The nerves are back in a different way. It feels like Buffalo is closing the gap.
There’s doubt until there isn’t in Buffalo. Bills fans are staring up still, cautiously optimistic that their quarterback will bring them the joy of a world championship. This game can go a long way in defining the relationship moving forward with these two teams. Are they going to be equals — going back and forth for the next decade, or are the Chiefs going to delay the breakthrough for another year?
There’s just enough doubt in Kansas City for Chiefs fans to be surprised again. With all these expectations come apathy for the months of September-December. All of our conversations are largely geared towards how a good or bad performance affects their Super Bowl chances.
Sunday is the perfect time for Mahomes to remind everybody that everything is different in Kansas City — and the AFC. It doesn’t have to be a tense rivalry, and it doesn’t have to end in parity.
Part of Mahomes’ legacy can be defined by taking on a litany of talented young quarterbacks in the AFC — Allen, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson — and always finding a way to best them in January. HIs chance to write that story starts on Sunday.
The questions can loom for another offseason in Buffalo.
The days of Mahomes being the “Baba Yaga” aren’t over. They didn’t go away at the first sign of adversity. The gap doesn’t have to be small between Mahomes and the rest of the AFC quarterbacks, and there’s an air of disrespect in Mahomes’ history over the last three years.
Sunday is a chance to remind everyone — including those in Kansas City — who the best player in the world is. He’s primed to surprise.
Come to Arrowhead expecting something special.
Matchup to Watch: Melvin Ingram vs. Bills OL
As Kansas City Chiefs fans, we’ve become accustomed to the phenomenal play of Chris Jones and Frank Clark – especially when it's come to the playoffs. The two defensive linemen create matchup nightmares for almost every offensive line that they see, and Sunday’s matchup with the Bills will be no different. However, the most important piece of the defensive line might just be a player who wasn’t even on the roster the last time these two teams played: Melvin Ingram.
Ingram has brought a different element to the defense in his short time in Kansas City. His football IQ has added yet another smart player to the rotation, helping to diagnose plays quickly with most of the rest of the front seven. His explosion and power have offered a pocket-collapsing, block-destroying manner of wrecking the play – routinely going through the offensive tackle, rather than around him. He’s also added another player along the Chiefs defense that routinely makes splashy, game-turning plays – which has been one of the major reasons behind the defensive turnaround in the back half of the year.
But most importantly, Ingram brings a presence that teams simply cannot ignore in favor of stopping Clark and Jones. While the other players along the defensive line have had positive moments, Ingram’s ability to win consistently off the edge means that teams can’t leave a one-on-one matchup on him and expect to be successful on the day. That shifting of protections has seen more one-on-ones for Clark and Jones as the back half of the season progressed, and their impact on the game has been subsequently felt.
This effect was felt the first time that Ingram met this Bills team – in a Week 1 Pittburgh Steelers victory to kick off his 2021 season. Ingram was utilized as a floating rusher by the Steelers defense during his tenure there – playing off the edge and on the second level, limiting his true pass rush capabilities. However, when working in tandem with TJ Watt and Cameron Heyward, he was able to win repeatedly on the outside and the inside as he saw one-on-one matchups. When the Bills tried to adjust to account for him, Heyward and Watt became even more effective. His ability to impact the game and force a change helped open up the Steelers’ pass rush – and should help open it up for the Chiefs this week as well.
Where Ingram might be even more of a wildcard for Steve Spagnuolo’s defense is his unique ability to play in space – and become a spy on Josh Allen in the Chiefs four-down looks. While there will likely be linebackers and safeties tasked with spying Allen on a fair amount of the Bills’ passing opportunities, Spagnuolo might be able to steal some reps with a three man rush – and Ingram floating over the offensive line with his eyes in the backfield. Ingram has the experience playing in space to take proper angles to the quarterback and limit his rushing opportunities. Conversely, the offense line will still have to respect him as a pass rusher, which could still lead to some advantageous looks while rushing three for Clark and Jones.
Ingram’s presence off the edge and ability to play in space will almost certainly be used to great effect by Spagnuolo and defensive line coach Brendan Daly. If the Chiefs can pick and choose their opportunities to “mush rush”, stunt, and spy with Ingram, they can keep the Bills offensive line guessing throughout the day. Even if they don’t put Ingram on the move as much as they could, his ability to be a dangerous defender off the edge – and free up the rest of the defensive line – could help swing the game in the Chiefs favor.