Chiefs vs. Broncos Game Preview: Scheme Spotlight, Hardman's Usage, Matchups to Watch, and More
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The Kansas City Chiefs (7-4) and Denver Broncos (6-5) meet Sunday evening at Arrowhead Stadium.
Here’s what else you should know:
Scheme Spotlight
The Denver Broncos have played quality defense for most of the 2021 season utilizing a talented defensive backfield, an expansive blitz package, and the high end play of their stars. Early in the year they were led by Von Miller and Justin Simmons but since the departure of the former, Dre’mont Jones and Patrick Surtain have stepped up for the team.
One position group that isn’t getting mentioned in the “stars” segment for the Broncos’ defense is going to be the linebacker group and that may be the secret to the Chiefs putting points on the board.
Using Misdirection Against Inexperienced Linebackers
The Broncos linebacker group had been solid over the past few seasons with veterans Alexander Johnson and Josey Jewell but both are currently injured. Over the past four games, at least one of rookie Baron Browning or mid-season trade acquisition has played 100% of the snaps, with the other playing over half. This new look Broncos’ linebacker group has upped the athleticism of the group and provided some excitement but against a team like the Chiefs, it may be a “one step forward, two steps backwards” kind of move.
Both of these players are relatively inexperienced with Browning being a rookie and Young posting his career high in total snaps in 2021 with six weeks still to play. Both guys are in their first year in the Vic Fangio defensive system and really getting their first extensive looks at this Chiefs’ offense. Just based purely on experience, the Chiefs should be able to find success attacking the middle of the field but once they add in their mis-direction game, it could get ugly.
The Chiefs still utilize pre-snap motion as much as any team in the NFL and do it in a variety of ways. Whether it’s jet motion across the backfield, running backs sprinting to the flats, or some of the burst motion to get players moving full speed before the snap, there is a lot to take in. Not only will these new linebackers have to decipher and properly play the exact motion on the field but also be on the same page as the rest of the team in order to not leave open holes in the defense.
It won’t just end pre-snap for the Chiefs either. They will mix in a variety of switch releases from bunched formations, delayed releases from chipping receivers, and occasionally a tight end will leak behind the scrimmage and out the other side. There is just a lot of eye-candy that the Chiefs put out there that could present a sensory overload for these younger linebackers and the moment you quit playing fast vs the Chiefs, it’s six points on the board.
The Broncos will certainly lean on the vaunted modern two-deep coverage the Vic Fangio re-popularized that has slowed down the Chiefs a ton in 2021. Teams with similar issues at linebacker have been able to survive the Chiefs offensive attack with this coverage behind it but giving Andy Reid a Bye Week to prepare for fresh meat like this could turn south really quickly for the Broncos.
It’s a Big Week For Mecole Hardman
Special Teams Coordinator Dave Toub announced on Thursday that Mike Hughes would be handling the punt return duties over third-year wide receiver Mecole Hardman.
That isn’t an overly alarming fact at face value, but when you’re coming off two weeks of regression in snap count, you start to pay attention to things like this. Hardman hadn’t seen less than 50% of the offensive snaps. He played at least 60% of the snaps prior to that in all but one game.
The arrow has pointed down on Hardman’s usage this season — and frankly, a large stretch of his career. Gone are the explosive down-the-field pass plays we saw early in his career when Tyreek Hill was absent.
Hardman hasn’t been able to find much success vertically, and unfortunately, his route running ability has not developed to an adequate level where he’s getting open in other areas of the field.
He’s been relegated largely to a player that requires manufactured touches like end arounds and touch passes behind the line of scrimmage to get involved. There are often times he’ll be involved in the early game script and disappear after the game stops being so controlled.
Adjustments are often made in the bye week by the coaching staff. They set the course for the remainder of the season and make personnel decisions they feel give their team the best chance to win. The last time the Chiefs played a game, Hardman saw only 12 snaps (18%) — his lowest count of the season.
It trended the wrong direction in November for Hardman. If it’s much of the same for him after the bye week, that’s a bad sign for his outlook the remainder of the year, and his contract year in 2022.
Snap count tells the story of what happens between Sundays — it is the ultimate indicator of who they believe gives them the best chance to win. It will be telling if Hardman isn’t utilized
Chris Jones vs. Broncos Interior Offensive Line
Over the last four games, Chris Jones has played 84% of his snaps on the interior of the defense. He’s posted a pressure rate of 15.5% and a defensive success rate of 57% against the run — a full 16% increase over his season-long numbers. While the defense as a whole has played significantly better during that span, Jones’ move to the interior — and subsequent dominance — has been one of the biggest stories of the Chiefs season to date.
Jones will look to continue his hot streak with a matchup against a young, above-average interior offensive line. Dalton Risner, Lloyd Cushenberry III, and Quinn Meinerz have all been day two picks for the Broncos over the last three years, helping to shore up the middle and offer their quarterback a clean pocket to step up into. Unfortunately for the Broncos, both Risner and Meinerz have been limited in practice this week due to back and knee injuries, so they may struggle with flexibility and mobility.
That’s a bad spot to be in against a player of Jones’ caliber — especially when he’s playing at the level he has been as of late. Risner has struggled throughout his career with “quicker” pass rushers — particularly those with the agility to cross his face in a single step. Jones uses this to his advantage often, using his long frame and long strides to cover ground quickly in front of interior blockers. Jones has posted 9 pressures and a sack in three games with Risner in the lineup for the Broncos.
Cushenberry took over the center spot in 2020 as a rookie and has improved in year two for the Broncos. A longer-than-average center, he has the physical size to be able to match Jones’ length on the interior. Unfortunately, his height gives him some natural losses in leverage and can be pulled forward a bit too easily when he bends at the waist to try to compensate. Jones has a terrific push-pull in his arsenal that could prove very dangerous against Cushenberry in Sunday’s matchup.
Finally, Meinerz has stepped in as a rookie in place of Graham Glasgow. He’s clearly still adjusting to the speed of the game and has been beaten by some more technically-savvy players in recent weeks. That’s to be expected from a small-school rookie, but it doesn’t bode well against one of the best interior pass rushers in the game — especially if he’s nursing a knee injury.
Finally, one of the moves that has beaten each of these players repeatedly in recent weeks is one of Jones’ favorites: the swim move. Fletcher Cox, Jonathan Allen, Quinnen Williams, and Leonard Williams have each given this interior fits with swim moves in the 2021 season. Jones leans on this move often — in both the run and the passing game — and I expect to find plenty of success with it.
While this Broncos interior offensive line is young and getting better, this is just a bad matchup without dedicating multiple assets toward stopping Jones on Sunday — which would open up the edges for Frank Clark and Melvin Ingram. I expect Steve Spagnuolo to get Jones some one-on-one matchups on Sunday night against this group, and I expect we’ll see plenty of success for the Chiefs stud defensive lineman.