Chiefs vs. Broncos, Week 10 preview
First go against the Donk... er, Broncos.
This weekend the Kansas City Chiefs (8-0) attempt to stay undefeated when they face the Denver Broncos (5-4). Before the season some may have assumed this one would be an easy dub for K.C., but that probably won’t be the case as the Broncos have been a surprising playoff contender so far in 2024.
Key game details
Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo.
Date: Sunday, Nov. 10
Time: Noon CT / 11 a.m. MT
Network/streaming: CBS
Radio: 96.5 The Fan, Chiefs mobile app
Broadcasters: Kevin Harlan, Trent Green
Referee: Brad Allen
Spread: Chiefs 7.5 to 8-point favorites
Weather: Approx. 58°, clear skies, up to 10 mph winds, chance of rain 0%
Injury reports from Thursday
List comes from Chiefs reporter Matt McMullen.
It looks like receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster and defensive lineman Tershawn Wharton probably won’t make this game, but the good news is that quarterback Patrick Mahomes has been a full participant in practice and will be good to go. He had an injury scare in Week 9 when he rolled his ankle on a touchdown pass, but he never missed any time and seemed to shrug it off as something he can manage.
The Broncos come into this game very healthy — it doesn’t appear they’ll have any important designations for this one.
Notable storylines for Week 10
This is probably a trap game
Is this a trap game? It feels like a trap game. It’s sandwiched in between a tough grind-it-out overtime battle with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and a huge AFC juggernaut matchup with the Buffalo Bills. And it’s one of the Chiefs’ rare noon games. It feels like a game in which the Chiefs could slip up.
Load management for Kareem Hunt
Kareem Hunt’s return to Kansas City has been a successful one. He has earned 465 yards and five touchdowns from scrimmage in five games, proving to have so much more juice left in the tank. However, there are concerns about his usage. While it’s encouraging that the Chiefs have found a nice run-pass balance, Hunt is on pace to receive over 300 rushing attempts which would be a career-high for the 29-year-old.
While the return of Isiah Pacheco will help lighten the load, Pacheco isn’t expected to return until late November. Hunt, meanwhile, has appeared on the Chiefs’ injury report four times since coming back to K.C. While it’s nice to see the running game working, it seems like the best idea would be for the Chiefs to mix in a little bit of Carson Steele to keep Hunt fresh, even if Steele hasn’t been quite as effective.
Nazeeh Johnson returns
The Bucs exploited the Chiefs’ lack of healthy depth at cornerback by targeting rookie Christian Roland-Wallace, who allowed four receptions for 47 yards, most by a Chiefs defensive back last week. This week, Nazeeh Johnson returns to help reignite the depth at CB2/CB3 for Kansas City. Hopefully his return makes a positive difference for the Chiefs’ defense.
Benny & The ‘Buy-Ins’: Higher/Lower Picks for Chiefs vs. Broncos on Underdog Fantasy, by Ben Heisler
LAST WEEK’S RECORD: 1-2
OVERALL RECORD: 9-14
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Bo Nix: 0.5 interceptions (HIGHER)
After Jayden Daniels, no rookie quarterback this season has been more impressive than Bo Nix. After a few rough games to start the year, Nix has a passer rating just below 90, throwing for 1,369 yards, eight touchdowns and two picks over his last seven games.
However, history does not bode well for him this week. Since 2019, rookie quarterbacks vs. Steve Spagnuolo’s defenses are just 1–11 straight up. In those games at Arrowhead, Broncos quarterbacks have thrown for eight interceptions. As impressive as Nix has been, he’s still a rookie quarterback in a hostile environment as a touchdown dog or more in a divisional game. Factor in back-to-back road games and I fully expect to see a forced takeaway, especially versus this defense.
Kareem Hunt: 84.5 rushing+ receiving yards (LOWER)
I faded Hunt a week ago after watching his yards-per-carry drop by nearly two yards on average over a four-week span, and he shut me up by surpassing 100 yards (106) on 27 carries, as well as catching a pass for 11 yards for 117 total vs. the Bucs.
So naturally, I’ll go back to the well this week.
Via FantasyPros, the Broncos allow the sixth-fewest yards-per-carry to running backs in zone runs, which Hunt runs just under 53% of the time. Overall, Denver’s run defense ranks slightly above average, but had been among the league’s best before Derrick Henry ran all over them the week before.
Finally, the math doesn’t add up, as Hunt is projected on Underdog for 71.5 rushing yards, and 8.5 receiving yards, totaling 80.
Samaje Perine: 7.5 receiving yards (HIGHER)
This is a two-part play for me.
One, Perine continues to see more volume in the passing game, evidenced by the Chiefs looking his way for four receptions and 25 yards a week ago vs. the Bucs.
Secondly, it’s the continued fade of Hunt who comes off a short week following 27 carries and the bulk of the snaps at running back on Monday night.
Perine has gone above 20 receiving yards in his last four games as well, all leading me to go higher on a number I don’t anticipate being in single digits for much longer this season.
Chiefs-Broncos matchup history
The Chiefs and Broncos have played each other 128 times dating back to 1960. The Chiefs lead the overall series 72-56, partially thanks to a 16-game winning streak spanning from 2015 to 2023. The Broncos broke that winning streak in their last matchup with K.C.
The last time the Chiefs and Broncos played…
The Broncos beat the Chiefs 24-9 on October 29, 2023. K.C. had five turnovers that day — two picks and fumble from Mahomes, who was battling flu-like symptoms, plus a fumble each from wideouts Mecole Hardman and Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
The best Chiefs-Broncos game ever was…
More seasoned Chiefs fans may remember a classic from 30 years ago when the Chiefs beat Denver on October 17, 1994. It was one of the greatest Monday Night Football games in history, a clash between Joe Montana and John Elway. Both squads were neck and neck the whole game. The Chiefs won 31-28 after a tightly-thrown touchdown pass by Montana to Chiefs WR Willie Davis in the front corner of the end zone.
Chiefs-Broncos prediction, picks
The Chiefs could certainly slip up here, especially since the Broncos have actually looked good in several games this year, albeit against lesser competition. However, their offense has been inconsistent, and I think defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo feasts on the rookie QB.
Will the Chiefs beat the Broncos?
I like the Chiefs in this one, though a close game seems to be in order. The Broncos have a tremendous defense including a strong running game, which will make things tough for the surprisingly run-heavy Chiefs. The Chiefs have also struggled against QBs that can run well. But… the Chiefs have simply mastered the art of grinding out wins. Unless the Chiefs come out completely flat and/or turn the ball over several times, this one feels like a win for K.C.
Will the Chiefs cover the spread?
It seems doubtful that the Chiefs will cover the spread of around eight points. They failed to cover their last two spreads which were 8.5 points. Denver did lose by 31 to the Baltimore Ravens last week which offers some hope, but the Chiefs simply don’t do blowouts very often.
Wes’ pick: Chiefs 20, Broncos 19