Chiefs vs. Chargers Game Preview: Scheme Spotlight, Matchups to Watch, and More
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The Kansas City Chiefs (9-4) and Los Angeles Chargers (8-5) meet Thursday night at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California in a key AFC West Divisional Showdown.
Here’s what you need to know:
Scheme Spotlight
The Chiefs are out looking for revenge against a Chargers team that has looked to find it’s footing after a few mid-season slips. The Chargers were able to beat the mistake-happy Chiefs earlier in the year but now with nearly everything reset, it’s time for the ‘winner takes all’ showdown. The biggest hold-up in full on confidence with the Chiefs right now is the offense, of all the crazy things to say.
The Chiefs offense has scored over 20 points only three times in their past nine games and two of those games were against the Las Vegas Raiders, in which John Gruden must have kept the Slack Message about how to play defense against the Chiefs. The Chiefs offense is struggling mightily most weeks from a game-planning, execution, and play calling standpoint, but is this the week they turn it around?
Whether you side with me in the thought that game planning duties have been shared more often this year than most seasons or you believe it’s only struggling due to execution, this is the game it needs to change. I really do believe the Chiefs offense will come out with new wrinkles and concepts for this particular matchup. Guessing those ‘new’ things is too difficult to predict but one key component for this game is going to be the Chiefs running backs and their performance this week.
All About the Running Backs
In their last five games, the Chargers have allowed opposing running backs to go over 45 receiving yards three different times. In those games, the running backs averaged 10 yards per target while amassing over 170 yards. Moral of the story is that the Chargers are incredibly susceptible to the running back passing game.
In recent games the Chiefs have been involving their running backs more frequently in the passing game. Since Week 9, the Chiefs running backs have only had under 45 yards receiving one time - against the Dallas Cowboys - and have been finding ways to use them as primary receivers and not just check down artists or screen recipients.
This is a particularly important matchup because of how the Chargers will likely play the Chiefs in coverage. The first time the two squared off, the Chargers seldomly ran Brandon Staley’s ‘famous’ Quarters coverage and instead played a ton of 2-Man coverage. This pits five defenders in man coverage against five receivers but the safeties can help on intermediate middle of the field throws and vertical shots.
If that is to happen again, this will leave the Chargers linebackers in man coverage with almost no help - as receivers and tight ends occupy the safeties - underneath and on the outside. All three of the Chargers linebackers, Kenneth Murray, Drue Tranquill, and Kyzir White, have over an 89 NFL Passer Rating when targeted this season.
The Chiefs should have a well placed ace up the sleeve in this game with their running backs vs the Chargers linebackers in coverage. It could become pivotal in the outcome of this game if the Chargers have early success disrupting and shutting down Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill at the line of scrimmage again.
Andy Will Empty the Bag Tonight
It can be easy to magnify the importance of a game, but the Chiefs’ matchup against the Chargers tonight is easily the biggest game of the year.
From a variety of angles, this game will be the deciding factor in the playoff path forward this season for Andy Reid and company.
If the Chiefs win, they have a highly realistic — dare I say good — chance of ending in pole position in the AFC. If they lose, they’re likely a Wild Card — having to travel in January.
Big Red knows the gravity — we don’t have to tell him. Whether or not they control their destiny is determined tonight. He’s always placed a high priority of housekeeping when the schedule comes out — taking care of the division first and foremost.
A divisional game with a crucial impact on the Chiefs’ path to the Super Bowl? You better believe Reid is bringing out the big guns tonight.
The offense has been slogging through a lot of games recently. The only team they’ve been able to flex their muscles on in the last few months has been the Raiders. The Chiefs are fresh off one of those Raider games, so it’s hard to tell if that’s a trend in the right direction, just another great performance against Las Vegas, or a little bit of both.
Reid can remind everyone tonight what this offense is capable of by unloading the chamber with his best call sheet. Expect the Chiefs to break tendencies they’ve shown all season, cash in on the build up to plays they’ve put on tape, and present some un-scouted looks on the Chargers.
The objective of an NFL team is to show as little — both offensively and defensively — as they can while still confidently securing a win. They need to sustain good scheme for the duration of the regular season and playoffs.
When Reid knows the importance of a game, he shows a willingness to let a little more out than normal. His instincts are good on when he pulls the trigger.
Tonight can go a long way in instilling confidence in the fanbase for the rest of the year. Displaying that Reid has answers to the struggles of this offense could really change the outlook of both sides of the football.
We’ve seen the defensive transformation. We know the firepower and capability of the offense. It’s time for them to show it. And if they do tonight, Chiefs fans will be standing a little taller as a Super Bowl favorite.
Matchup to Watch: Frank Clark vs. Trey Pipkins
While the focus from most Chiefs fans is on the player who may not play (Chris Jones), there’s another player along the defensive line with the capability to wreck the game – and he has a very favorable matchup. Clark has been on a tear over the last several weeks and he draws Pipkins, who is filling in for Rashawn Slater on the COVID-19/Reserve list. Slater has been amongst the leaders in offensive rookie of the year lists and has become one of the NFL’s best young tackles, so any replacement is likely a step back.
Unfortunately for the Chargers, Pipkins has struggled in his starts for Los Angeles, particularly at left tackle. In four starts there, Pipkins has allowed four sacks and 21 pressures. That’s an average of six times a game that his defender is affecting the quarterback from the left side of the defense – a large number, especially considering the help that they give that side of the line when he’s playing.
Frank Clark enters this week’s game averaging almost six combined pressures and sacks a game over the last 5 games, despite facing some above average left tackles in that span. Clark has seen offenses shift their focus to him (and Jones) throughout the span, freeing up other rushers to have one-on-one matchups – which they have taken advantage of over the past several weeks. However, Clark has still maximized his opportunities and has converted his rushes to a 16% pressure rate during the Chiefs resurgence.
Clark has an opportunity to wreck this game in an advantageous matchup for the Chiefs. Spagnuolo will likely rely on his four man rush to attack Justin Herbert, as the young quarterback easily solved the Chiefs blitz the last time these teams faced. If his blitz percentage is low this week, Spagnuolo can buy some extra time for his pass rushers to get home by flooding the secondary. It will be up to the group up front – potentially without Chris Jones – to win their matchups and disrupt the Chargers game plan. If there’s a member along the front that has the form and capability – as well as the matchup – to do it, it’s Frank Clark.