Chiefs vs. Chargers, Week 14 preview
Back in primetime for the fifth time this season.
It’s Sunday Night Football again for the Kansas City Chiefs (11-1) as they take on division rival Los Angeles Chargers (8-4) for the second time this season. The Chargers have become a more polished team since the Chiefs met them last, meaning this has the potential to be a tight game, and it could even be a playoff preview if the final season standings fall a certain way.
Key game details
Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo.
Date: Sunday, Dec. 8
Time: 7:20 p.m. CT / 5:20 p.m. PT
Network/streaming: NBC, Peacock
Radio: 96.5 The Fan, Chiefs mobile app
Broadcasters: Mike Tirico, Cris Collinsworth
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Spread: Chiefs 3.5 to 4-point favorites
Weather: Approx. 51°, cloudy, up to 9 mph winds, chance of rain 13%
Injury reports from Thursday
Image below from Chiefs reporter Matt McMullen.
The Chiefs’ injury report is looking great. The only one to monitor is right tackle Jawaan Taylor, who was downgraded to a limited participant Thursday. If he can’t go, the team could slide over Wanya Morris to the right spot while newly-acquired D.J. Humphries takes the left.
The Chargers have quite a few nagging injuries, with receiver Ladd McConkey as one of the standouts. McConkey is dealing with sprains in both his knee and shoulder, making his status a long shot for this game. One important player who isn’t on the injury report is running back J.K. Dobbins, who hit injured reserve last week and won’t play in this game.
Notable storylines for Week 14
D.J. Humphries to start
Humphries will get the start at left tackle this week over second-year man Wanya Morris. Last week, Morris was awful in pass blocking, allowing eight pressures and forcing quarterback Patrick Mahomes to either get hit or flush out of the pocket often. Morris was benched on the last series of the game, with left guard Joe Thuney sliding over to LT while Mike Caliendo was plugged in to the LG spot.
Humphries hasn’t played a game since December 2023 due to a torn ACL. He was pretty effective last year — serviceable at the least — with his best year coming in 2022 before getting hurt with a back injury. If Humphries can even just be serviceable for the Chiefs, it’d be a significant upgrade for the offense which has struggled over the last few weeks due to poor left tackle play.
Charles Omenihu ramping up
In his season debut last week, apparently defensive end Charles Omenihu played more snaps than the Chiefs initially planned to give him. That’s a good sign for his recovery, and shows that he’s probably in line for more snaps in Week 14. That’s great for the Chiefs who have struggled to have a strong, consistent pass rush in 2024. It’s sort of a similar story to Humphries for Omenihu — if he can just be serviceable and a slight improvement, it’d go a long way to improve K.C.’s defense.
Chiefs can win the West
The Chiefs have a chance to capture their ninth-straight AFC West title on Sunday with a win over the Chargers. Conversely, a Chargers win would put them just two games behind the Chiefs in the division race with four games to go, and L.A. has a much more favorable schedule to close the season compared to K.C.
Those factors make this a huge game for both teams. Though, the one thing more important for the Chiefs than the division is the No. 1 seed, which the Chiefs would likely give up with a loss (assuming the Buffalo Bills can take out the L.A. Rams this weekend).
Benny & The ‘Buy-Ins’: Higher/Lower Picks for Chiefs vs. Chargers on Underdog Fantasy, by Ben Heisler
LAST WEEK’S RECORD: 1-2
OVERALL RECORD: 16-20
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DeAndre Hopkins: 3.5 receptions (HIGHER)
Hopkins finally got back in the groove last week, even in what can only be described as a “disappointing” victory against the Las Vegas Raiders at home. Nuk finished with four receptions on nine targets for 90 yards where the whole Chiefs’ operation just felt out of sync throughout the game.
While he barely ended up higher than the projected target, Hopkins still ranks second in first-read share from his quarterback, trailing just Travis Kelce, while also honing in a route share of 63.5% and a target share just under 20%.
LA’s defense has also sputtered of late, ranking in the bottom nine in most points-per-reception points per target (via FantasyPros).
Justin Herbert: 4.5 rushing attempts (HIGHER)
While I can’t beat the Herbert “Free Play” for new Underdog players above, I can still recommend another play readily available in his rushing attempts Sunday night at Arrowhead.
Herbert has cleared this number in three of his last four games, with his lowest number of four coming in just below the benchmark in Week 12 against the Baltimore Ravens.
Kansas City, despite ranking middle-of-the-pack in rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks, remains bottom 10 in rushing attempts to quarterbacks. The stat adds up, given Kansas City’s propensity to be up late in the game and opposing QBs looking to extend drives however possible. There’s also the Chiefs’ strength in rushing the passer causing more scrambles to take place.
I could see a scenario in which Herbert is sitting on 2-3 late in the game, and pops over 4.5 during the two-minute drill. We may have to sweat it out, but I expect him to get to five and over.
Gus Edwards: 9.5 rushing attempts (HIGHER)
Gus has looked less like the “Gus the Bus” bruiser and more like Gus the “Cloud of Dust” since returning from injury the last few weeks. Regardless, he’s still the de facto top back in L.A. at the moment, and there’s been speculation that despite the Chiefs’ strong run defense, the Chargers would like to use Edwards more frequently to open up play action for Herbert and company.
Before, Edwards had averaged just over 8.5 rushing attempts/game, yet he still led L.A.’s backfield for 52% of the snaps and 64% of their run plays. Given that we just need him for volume instead of actual yardage, I feel secure he makes it to double digit carries in the ballgame.
Chiefs-Chargers matchup history
The Chiefs lead the all-time series 70-58-1 over the Chargers dating back to 1960. K.C. is also on a six-game winning streak vs. L.A. right now. The longest streak for either team was nine games in favor of the Chiefs from 2014-2018.
The last time the Chiefs and Chargers played…
The Chiefs beat the Chargers 17-10 back in Week 4. Things started off tough for the Chiefs who went down 10 in the first quarter, but they managed to turn it around after a deep 54-yard touchdown bomb from Mahomes to rookie wideout Xavier Worthy. Eventually the Chiefs tied it up and then scored another TD in the fourth quarter, hanging on for the win thanks to a strong defensive effort.
One of the best Chiefs-Chargers games was…
On Monday night, October 9, 1995, the Chargers learned that it ain’t over until it’s Vanover. A back-and-forth game went into overtime tied at 23. Both teams had to punt once before the Chargers punted for a second time with eight minutes to go. Chiefs rookie receiver/returner Tamarick Vanover already had a kick return TD under his belt earlier that season, so the threat of a strong return loomed. Vanover made the Chargers pay for kicking to him, taking the punt 86 yards to the house for the score and the win.
Chiefs-Chargers prediction, picks
The addition of Humphries should allow the Chiefs to function better on offense this week, but I don’t know if he solves their red zone issues, at least right away.
Will the Chiefs beat the Chargers?
I’m predicting a close loss for the Chiefs this week. K.C.’s defense struggled against some no-names the past couple of weeks. Meanwhile, even if the offensive line improves with Humphries, the right side is still suspect. Plus, the Chiefs have one of the worst red zone offenses in the league right now, and coach Andy Reid has been abandoning the run over the last few weeks when it hasn’t been necessary to do so.
K.C. has had some lucky wins this season, and I think that catches up with them against a Chargers squad that’s much stronger than it was in Week 4. Of course, some Chiefs magic could cause K.C. to sneak away with a win, but given the Chiefs’ recent issues plus the team being on its third kicker, I think L.A. can squeeze out a W.
Will the Chiefs cover the spread?
They certainly can cover the spread if they’re on their game, but the Chiefs haven’t covered the spread in their last six games. Most of those spreads were much larger than the four-pointer this week, but this spread is smaller for a reason — the Chargers are a good, balanced team that matches up well against K.C.
Wes’ pick: Chargers 24, Chiefs 23