Chiefs vs. Dolphins, wild-card round preview

FREEZING temps for this one. Check our notes and picks for the week.

It may have been fate for the Kansas City Chiefs (11-6) to end up facing their old pal, receiver Tyreek Hill, in the playoffs against his current team, the Miami Dolphins (11-6). The unexpected part of this matchup is just how darn cold it will be. We’re in for a good one.

Key game details

Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo.
Date: Saturday, Jan. 13
Time: 7 p.m. CT
Network/streaming: Peacock, KSHB Channel 41 (local only)
Radio: 106.5 The Wolf, Chiefs mobile app
Broadcasters: Mike Tirico, Jason Garrett
Referee: Brad Rogers
Betting line via DraftKings: Chiefs -4.5 (-112), ML -230
Weather: Approx. 3°, cloudy, 17 mph winds, chance of snow 4%

Injury reports from Thursday

Chiefs

Chiefs left tackle Donovan Smith will be back just in time to sub in for Wanya Morris who sustained a concussion in Week 18. Other than that, the Chiefs come into this game pretty healthy all things considered. The downside is that safety Bryan Cook and running back Jerick McKinnon are not expected to return for the postseason.

Dolphins

The Dolphins have a brutal injury report that doesn’t even tell the whole story. They’ll also be missing linebackers Bradley Chubb, Jerome Baker, Andrew Van Ginkel and Jaelan Phillips, plus center Connor Williams from an injury earlier this season.

Notable Chiefs storylines for the wild-card round

It’s gon’ be cold

Almost zero degrees with a -20ish degree wind chill? 20ish MPH winds? Psh, that’s nothing we can’t handle. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has already declared himself a “snow game guy,” so you know he’s ready for the cold. Are the Dolphins, though? They’ve lost nine straight games when the temp is under 40 degrees. Seems like K.C. has quite an advantage here.

Tyreek’s return to Arrowhead

Hill got his first game against the Chiefs earlier this season, but that was played in Germany. This game will be his official return to Arrowhead. How will fans react? Boo? Cheer? Probably a mix of both. All we know for sure is that Hill will want to improve on his performance from last time. In the Dolphins’ 21-14 loss to K.C., Hill finished with 65 total yards and a fumble that was returned by the Chiefs for a touchdown.

Can the offense buckle down for a playoff run?

Here it is. Make or break for the Chiefs’ offense. We all know how the story has gone — drops, penalties, shaky offensive line play. Can the offense at least play relatively mistake-free football, just enough to get the W? With as good as the defense has been, all the offense may need to be is solid.

The Isiah Pacheco game

This is shaping up to be an Isiah Pacheco game. The Dolphins are missing three of their starting linebackers, one good backup linebacker, plus at least one starting defensive back. With the temps down to almost zero degrees and a beat up Dolphins front seven, the best offensive approach for the Chiefs will be to pound the rock as much as possible. And Pacheco is built for it — in two of his last three games he has gone over 100 yards on the ground.

Chiefs-Dolphins best bets

I went 2-for-3 last week, missing on my overly-optimistic Justyn Ross pick. The Chiefs moneyline and Chargers under 18.5 points, however, were no-brainers.

Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco over 64.5 yards rushing (-115) AND anytime touchdown (-120)

I mean, I just said this was going to be a Pacheco game. So of course I’m all in on Pop. He has scored in each of his last four games and has gone over the 64.5 rushing mark in four of his last six. And given Miami’s defensive injuries, Pacheco could probably break the 100 mark in this game.

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes anytime TD (+390)

I wasn’t initially going to add this since Mahomes hasn’t scored a rushing touchdown all season long, but our guy Kent Swanson swayed me with this post:

Sometimes, “he’s due” is sound betting logic. I’m going with Kent on this one.

Chiefs WR Mecole Hardman over 14.5 yards receiving (-115)

Hardman showed out in Week 18, earning six catches for 77 yards with QB Blaine Gabbert throwing the passes. It was impressive enough that I think the Chiefs will use Hardman in this game, at least enough to notch 15 yards. WRs Kadarius Toney and Justyn Ross possibly missing the game could push Hardman’s snaps up even more.

WATCH the injury report: Dolphins RB Raheem Mostert anytime TD (+140)

I’d wait until Mostert is officially active before placing this bet. If he is active, it’s a good one. Mostert has scored like crazy this season, earning 21 touchdowns in 15 games played and scoring at least once in each of his last five games. +140 odds imply a 42 percent probability, but he’s scored in 80 percent of his games this season (12-for-15).

Chiefs-Dolphins matchup history

The series between the Chiefs and Dolphins is tied 16-16 dating back to 1966. The Chiefs are on a four-game winning streak against Miami, including a two-game winning streak against QB Tua Tagovailoa. However, the Chiefs are 0-3 against Miami in the postseason, with losses in the 1971, 1990 and 1994 seasons.

The last time the Chiefs and Dolphins played…

The Chiefs beat the Dolphins 21-14 on November 5, 2023 in Frankfurt, Germany. Kansas City went up 21-0 at halftime after Bryan Cook return the aforementioned Hill fumble for a touchdown, thanks to a lateral from Chiefs safety Mike Edwards. The ‘Phins had to play catch up for the rest of the game but the Chiefs’ defense held them in check.

The best Chiefs-Dolphins game ever was…

Charles Goldman covered this in our Week 9 preview:

December 25, 1971 at Municipal Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. The Chiefs met the Dolphins in an AFC divisional-round playoff game, and little did they know what they had in store for them. The game was a grueling back-and-forth affair that would go to double overtime and go on for a whopping 82 minutes and 40 seconds, which held the record for the longest game in NFL history for quite some time. The Dolphins won that game, 27-24, giving Hall of Famers like Willie Lanier and Bobby Bell an early playoff exit.

I’ll add that the Chiefs and Dolphins had a pretty close wild-card round playoff game in January 1991, with Chiefs RB Christian Okoye racking up 83 yards on the ground and WR Stephone Paige earning 142 yards receiving. However, K.C. couldn’t hold off Dolphins QB Dan Marino and lost 17-16.

Chiefs-Dolphins prediction, picks

I’m confident in the Chiefs to come out on top with this one, though a Christmas-esque game where K.C. plays with absolutely no steam could derail that prediction.

Will the Chiefs beat the Dolphins?

The Chiefs should win thanks to a healthy dose of Pacheco vs. a weakened Dolphins D, plus defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s proven ability to fluster Tagovailoa. The key will be for Mahomes and the offense to play smart football. The field position battle will be most important in this game.

Will the Chiefs cover the spread?

I wouldn’t bet on it. I see this frigid-temp game as a low-scorer, which means less room for K.C. to win by five. A field goal game seems likely.

Wes’ pick: Chiefs 20, Dolphins 17