Chiefs vs. Raiders, Week 13 preview
Raider week, part II.
The Kansas City Chiefs (10-1) revisit their rivalry with the Las Vegas Raiders (2-9) once again in Week 13. This time it’s an afternoon game on Black Friday — a game that should be watched by a ton of full, happy folks. Hey, a bonus — all the Thanksgiving leftovers can be eaten as a gameday meal.
Key game details
Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo.
Date: Friday, Nov. 29
Time: 2 p.m. CT / Noon PT
Network/streaming: Prime Video, KSHB 41 (K.C. local only)
Radio: 96.5 The Fan, Chiefs mobile app
Broadcasters: Al Michaels, Kirk Herbstreit
Referee: Clay Martin
Spread: Chiefs 13-point favorites
Weather: Approx. 35°, cloudy, up to 5 mph winds, chance of snow 2%
Injury reports from Wednesday
Image below from Chiefs reporter Matt McMullen.
The Chiefs get some wonderful news this week: running back Isiah Pacheco and defensive end Charles Omenihu are set to return. Meanwhile on the unfortunate side, kicker Spencer Shrader somehow got hurt, so the Chiefs are now down to their third kicker, Matthew Wright, for this game.
The Raiders’ injury report is rough. Starting cornerbacks Jakorian Bennett and Nate Hobbs will miss this game, a huge blow to their secondary. Quarterback Gardner Minshew will also miss this game (and the rest of the season) due to a broken collarbone, meaning Aidan O’Connell will get the start.
Notable storylines for Week 13
Chiefs-Raiders rivalry continues
The Chiefs got their win over the Raiders earlier this season, but has that allowed them to forget all the trash talk? How about the Christmas loss last year? I doubt it. Kansas City really, really wants this win — it’s apparent after the team was clearly frustrated by barely getting past the Carolina Panthers last week. This is a great time for K.C. to strike given the Raiders’ injuries and QB turmoil.
Return of Pacheco, Omenihu
Pacheco hasn’t played since Week 2 due to a broken leg. It’s a quick turnaround for him, and you know fans are salivating at the idea of a 1-2 punch of Pacheco and Kareem Hunt. They should complement each other well — Pacheco can earn the explosive plays while Hunt can be used in short-yardage situations. The big plus is that both are great on passing downs, making it that much more difficult for opposing defenses to predict the Chiefs’ next play.
Omenihu hasn’t played since last year’s AFC Championship Game due to a torn ACL. He was a nice change of pace in K.C.’s pass rush scheme last year, earning eight sacks in 14 games played (including playoffs). He should provide a major boost for a Chiefs pass rush which ranks bottom-five in sacks (21) this season.
Maxx Crosby might eat — or maybe not
The Panthers boast one of the league’s worst pass rushes, and yet it was able to get home against K.C. five times last week. That’s concerning. The Chiefs’ tackles have mostly been to blame lately, with left tackle Wanya Morris and right tackle Jawaan Taylor allowing 25 and 24 pressures, respectively, this season.
Obviously, the glaring issue is that K.C. faces DE Maxx Crosby on Friday. You know, one of the best pass rushers in the league. Crosby gets fired up to play against K.C., so you know he’ll be ready for this one. One positive sign is that Crosby didn’t have a sack against the Chiefs back in Week 8, but containing him twice in a season could prove to be tough.
Benny & The ‘Buy-Ins’: Higher/Lower Picks for Chiefs vs. Raiders on Underdog Fantasy, by Ben Heisler
LAST WEEK’S RECORD: 1-2
OVERALL RECORD: 15-18
Underdog is the newest, fastest growing, must-check-out destination for fantasy sports. And, if you thought October was one of the best months of the year, it’s nothing compared to Boost-Ober, where Underdog is offering new customers a boosted pick or promo every day of the month!
Sign up with promo code KCSN and score up to $1,000 in bonus cash on your first deposit, AND snag a Week 13 Free Pick (Patrick Mahomes HIGHER 0.5 total yards). Plus, take advantage of profit boosts, discounts, gimmie picks and so much more during “Feast Week,” from Wednesday-Saturday!
Patrick Mahomes: 1.5 passing TDs (HIGHER)
Don’t look now, but Mahomes has now dropped three passing touchdowns in three of his last four games and faces a Raiders defense that’s been abysmal. The Silver and Black rank 30th in opponent points per play, 28th in opposing touchdowns per game, and 24th in opponent red zone scoring percentage on TDs.
While some of Mahomes’ early struggles were on him, back in late October, FTN Fantasy analyst Scott Spratt pointed out that Mahomes was averaging the same 5.5 red zone passes/game that he had in 2020 with 38 touchdowns, but was down at 4.1. He said more TD luck would positively regress to the mean and we’re seeing that in play in November.
Aidan O’Connell: 0.5 interceptions (HIGHER)
There’s a few reasons to back the higher on O’Connell to throw a pick this week.
The first is that the game script projects the Chiefs to be up big as a near two-touchdown home favorite on Black Friday. Should this play out, we’ll see more throws from the Raiders, likely leading to more opportunities for K.C. to take the ball away as they become more and more desperate.
Then again, we anticipated something similar against the Panthers and it never came to play, so let’s find another reason.
O’Connell is the team’s healthy quarterback, but he’s also dealing with a broken thumb and trying to play through it. One problem? The Raiders can’t run the ball to take pressure off their QB. Vegas is dead last in the NFL in almost every meaningful running metric: rush play percentage, yards per rush, rushes and rush yards per game, etc. O’Connell will throw and throw often, all while dealing with an explosive pass rush and a broken thumb.
Back him to throw at least a pick.
Brock Bowers: 6.5 receptions (HIGHER)
With O’Connell likely to be throwing often, let’s lean into Bowers who is putting up fantastic rookie numbers at one of the most difficult positions to dominate in their first year at tight end. The first-year Georgia star set a franchise record for most rookie receptions in Week 12!
While he only ended up with four receptions for 38 yards vs. the Broncos, he still saw 10 targets on the day, and gets a Chiefs defense that’s been tested over their last several games. They still continue to have issues slowing down tight ends, and O’Connell won’t hesitate to look his way consistently throughout the matchup.
Chiefs-Raiders matchup history
The Chiefs have played the Raiders more than any other NFL team — yep, even more times than the Denver Broncos or Los Angeles Chargers. In 131 games dating back to 1960, the Chiefs lead the all-time series 74-55-2 over the Raiders. That record includes a 2-1 postseason record vs. the Silver and Black.
The last time the Chiefs and Raiders played…
It was a month ago, on October 27, 2024. The Chiefs started off shaky, going down 10-7 in the first half, but eventual scores from tight end Travis Kelce and receiver Xavier Worthy allowed the Chiefs to pull away 27-13. K.C. allowed a late-game touchdown to Raiders WR D.J. Turner, but Vegas couldn’t recover the onside kick and the Chiefs were able to hang on 27-20.
The best Chiefs-Raiders game ever was…
You know the drill — there are too many games to nail down the best. But let’s go way back to find one of the best. You see, the reason why the Chiefs have played the Raiders more times than the Broncos and Chargers is because of three postseason matchups. The second Chiefs-Raiders postseason matchup came on January 4, 1970, when the two rivals met in the AFL Championship game.
It was a tight one, but thanks to a strong defensive performance led by Chiefs legends Emmitt Thomas, Curley Culp and Jerry Mays, among others, K.C. took home the trophy and went on to win Super Bowl IV.
Chiefs-Raiders prediction, picks
The Chiefs get flak for not “getting up” for regular season games — hence the three-point win over the Panthers. However, I think they’ll be up for this one.
Will the Chiefs beat the Raiders?
I do think the Chiefs will win this. On paper, this looks like a game for Vegas to earn an upset. It’s similar to last year’s Christmas game — it’s a holiday, the Chiefs are coasting, the Raiders have nothing much to play for. However, the Raiders are missing key defensive pieces, and their QB has barely played this year (and is also fighting a thumb injury). After being pissed off about the Carolina win (who gets mad about a win? Apparently, the Chiefs do), K.C. should be locked in for this one.
Will the Chiefs cover the spread?
I don’t think so — 13 points is a large spread. The Chiefs rarely cover when it’s that high. I expect a one-score affair.
Wes’ pick: Chiefs 26, Raiders 20