Chiefs vs. Raiders, Week 16 preview

Raider Week Part II on Christmas! Check out our notes and picks for this week.

It’s Raider Week… again! The Kansas City Chiefs (9-5) take on their AFC West rivals — the Las Vegas Raiders (6-8) — in a rematch from just a few weeks ago. The Chiefs are hoping to move up in the AFC playoff standings… while the Raiders are hoping to stay afloat in the division.

Key game details

Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo.
Date: Monday, Dec. 25
Time: Noon CT
Network/streaming: CBS, Nickelodeon, Paramount+
Radio: 106.5 The Wolf, Chiefs mobile app
Broadcasters: Jim Nantz, Tony Romo
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Betting line via DraftKings: Chiefs -10 (-110), ML -520
Weather: Approx. 48°, partly cloudy, 16 mph winds, chance of rain 64%

Injury reports from Thursday

Chiefs

Did not practice: LB Nick Bolton (wrist/abdomen/illness), LB Cam Jones (illness), RB Jerick McKinnon (groin), WR Kadarius Toney (hip)

Limited participants: Mecole Hardman (IR - thumb), OT Donovan Smith (neck)

Full participants: TE Travis Kelce (neck), OL Wanya Morris (hip), RB Isiah Pacheco (shoulder), S Justin Reid (knee), WR Rashee Rice (hamstring), OG Trey Smith (hip), CB L'Jarius Sneed (knee)

Game designations: Will release Friday afternoon

Bolton, McKinnon and Toney have all been on the injury report for weeks, so it seems likely that all (or most) of them will play. The Chiefs may get Hardman and Smith back for this game as well.

Raiders

Did not practice: DE Maxx Crosby (knee), RB Josh Jacobs (quad), TE Michael Mayer (toe), OG Dylan Parham (illness), WR D.J. Turner (shoulder)

Limited participants: OT Justin Herron (knee), C Andre James (ankle), OT Kolton Miller (shoulder), LB Robert Spillane (illness)

Full participants: CB Brandon Facyson (IR - shin)

Game designations: Will release Friday afternoon

Crosby has been battling a knee injury for a few weeks but has continued to see the field. It seems doubtful that he’ll miss this one and pass up an opportunity to uphold his rivalry with Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Jacobs, meanwhile, seems like a long shot after missing last week’s game.

Notable Chiefs storylines for Week 16

Chiefs win = AFC West title

The Chiefs clinch the AFC West if they beat the Raiders this week. That would give K.C. its eighth straight division title. A stat that’s even more interesting is the fact that the Chiefs, Raiders, Broncos and Chargers each have won the division 15 times, so the Chiefs will take sole possession of the most AFC West titles if they win it this year. Crazy how it’s split so evenly like that.

WRs Justyn Ross and Mecole Hardman: Any impact?

Last week we pondered whether Ross would make an impact, but it turns out he wasn’t quite ready to even join the team. Now he is, along with Hardman, which means the Chiefs can mix things up in the receiver room. But will they? Maybe, with Skyy Moore missing the rest of the regular season due to injury, and others (like Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Kadarius Toney) not performing well. But it may be more likely that Richie James sees more action after coach Andy Reid expressed desire to play him more.

Keep an eye on playoff seeding

The Chiefs are still alive in the No. 1 seed race, but they need some help. Obviously they need to win out, but they also need a loss from the Miami Dolphins and two more losses from the Baltimore Ravens. Both of those teams have rather difficult schedules the rest of the way (and play each other in Week 17), so this scenario is not impossible for K.C.

Chiefs-Raiders best bets

I got back on track by going 2-for-3 last week. My only miss was the Kelce first touchdown scorer bet. I told you that one was a dark horse bet, though!

Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco anytime TD (+105)

Pacheco has scored in six of 12 games that he has played, and had two touchdowns against the Raiders last month. The Chiefs are also trusting him in short-yardage situations, meaning the ball will likely go to him in the red zone at some point. Bank on Pacheco and potentially double your money.

Chiefs WR Rashee Rice over 64.5 receiving yards (-115)

Rice’s overs keep going up, and yet he keeps on hitting them. He’s hit his overs in each of the last four weeks in receiving yards. His receiving yards in his last four games were 91, 72, 64 and 107. That 107 number came against the Raiders. Mahomes trusts Rice more than any wide receiver on the team by a mile. I expect him to have a good game. You may even hit his anytime TD at +145 as well — he’s scored in four of his last six games.

Raiders WR Jakobi Meyers anytime TD (+350)… OR dark horse bet: Meyers first TD scorer +2000

Meyers has scored in two of his last three games, including a score against Kansas City. He also, remarkably, has scored the first touchdown in five games this season. Most players maybe get one and rarely get two of those in a season. Of course, first TD scorers are unpredictable, so if you’re not feeling it, go with the anytime TD. It still pays well.

Chiefs-Raiders matchup history

The Chiefs lead the all-time series 73-54-2 over the Raiders. K.C. is currently on a six-game winning streak against their rival, and have only lost to them once since Mahomes became the team’s starter.

The last time the Chiefs and Raiders played…

… was about a month ago. The Chiefs beat the Raiders 31-17 on November 26. Mahomes had 298 yards and two scores, with his two favorite targets being (who else?) Rice (8-107-1) and Kelce (6-91). Pacheco had two touchdowns on the ground.

The best Chiefs-Raiders game ever was…

Like I always say with AFC West matchups, there are too many to determine the very best. So instead, let’s get into the Christmas spirit and go back to Christmas Day 2004…

The Chiefs were having a back-and-forth game against the Raiders, with running back Larry Johnson and tight end Tony Gonzalez hauling in a pair of scores each. The Raiders managed to go up by two points with 1:07 to go in the game after forcing a fumble from quarterback Trent Green.

But then there was an X-factor. Chiefs Hall of Fame return specialist Dante Hall returned the kickoff 49 yards to the Raiders’ 36-yard line, setting the Chiefs up for the game-winning field goal kicked by Lawrence Tynes.

Chiefs-Raiders prediction, picks

The Raiders scored zero points two weeks ago, and followed up that performance by scoring 63 points. I don’t know which version of the Raiders we’re getting in Week 16.

Will the Chiefs beat the Raiders?

Yes, the Chiefs should win, barring another mistake-filled performance. I think the Chiefs have a good thing going with trusting Rice and Kelce as the top options. Plus, returning Pacheco should help tremendously. I’m sure the Chiefs will struggle early, but I don’t see the Raiders keeping up in the long run.

Will the Chiefs cover the spread?

They beat the Raiders by 14 last time, so it’s definitely possible they win this one by double digits. I personally wouldn’t take them to cover with such a high spread. There’s also the chance of a push, so I’ll take the cowardly route and pick that.

Wes’ pick: Chiefs 27, Raiders 17