Chiefs vs. Ravens - Game Preview: Key Stats, Matchups to Watch, Storylines to Follow
The Chiefs (1-0) travel to Baltimore to face the Ravens (0-1) on Sunday Night Football (7:20 pm CST, NBC) in a showdown between two of the top teams in the AFC.
Coming off a 33-29 win over the Browns last Sunday, the Chiefs get back a couple of their top defensive players this week in Frank Clark and Tyrann Mathieu, who should help provide a boost to a unit faced with another tough challenge this week in dealing with Ravens’ star quarterback Lamar Jackson and company.
It’s worth noting that under Andy Reid, the Chiefs are a perfect-4-0 against the Ravens - averaging nearly 32 points-per-game in those contests, while two of those Chiefs’ wins (2015 34-14, 2020 34-20) - were on the road in Baltimore at M&T Bank Stadium, where Sunday night’s game takes place.
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Here are some more in-depth thoughts about Sunday’s matchup from Matt Lane, Kent Swanson, and Craig Stout.
For the fourth-straight year, the Chiefs and Ravens will meet. The Chiefs have won three straight and each victory is looking more and more impressive in favor of the Chiefs.
The Chiefs seem to have the Ravens’ number on both sides of the football. The Ravens’ blitz heavy attack frequently falters against the Chiefs’ offense and even when they try to play it patiently, the Chiefs have no no issues moving the ball at will. For that reason - whether fairly or not - I anticipate the Chiefs offense to continue to roll against the Ravens.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Ravens are a team that should give the Chiefs’ defense absolutes fits on paper. Fortunately for the Chiefs, Defensive Coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has done an excellent job attacking a relatively one-dimensional Ravens’ offense. The Ravens look like they have learned from matchups against the Chiefs - and teams that have played them similarly - and are trying their hand at a more traditional passing passing attack.
If the Chiefs are to continue their dominance over the Baltimore Ravens, they are going to have to slow down this new offensive approach. The Las Vegas Raiders may have shown a blueprint and it’s one of the oldest tricks in the book: getting pressure with four rushers.
The Raiders were able to net 8 pressures on the Ravens, which came to 20.5% pressure percentage on the day. The Raiders only brought more than four rushers three times against the Ravens and only one of those blitzes resulted in a pressure.
In the past, the Chiefs had opted to mush-rush the Ravens not particularly trying to pressure the QB but rather just contain him. They would bring extra pressure and play exotic coverages to confuse the Ravens offense and have had quite a lot of success doing just that.
The Ravens appear to be trying to add more traditional drop-back passing aspects to their offense. Not that they hadn’t before but there seems to be a larger emphasis on light, more traditional personnel groupings and spreading the field out to throw the ball. If that is the Ravens plan of attack, the Chiefs added pressure packages may be slightly limited this week and a lot of pressure could be placed upon the front four to get home.
Last week against the Cleveland Browns, the Chiefs were down one of their best DL in Frank Clark and it turned the pass rush into a one man show. Chris Jones had his moments where he looked every bit as promising as the Defensive Player of the Year candidate that some had predicted but he was still all alone.
The Ravens OL won’t be near as stout as the Browns OL and if Frank Clark can return to play, the Chiefs could be in for a big game along the DL. Alejandro Villanueva will have to slide over to LT with Ronnie Stanley missing time and Patrick Mekari will have to step into the RT position. Villanueva is coming off one of the worst performances of Week 1 and Patrick Mekari has only played NFL snaps on the interior of the offensive line. Speaking of the interior, Ben Powers will join Bradley Bozeman and Kevin Zeitler which should allow Jarran Reed and Tershawn Wharton to get going as well.
The Chiefs don’t need a dominant DL performance against the Ravens to beat them but the Raiders showed a major weakness in the Ravens’ offense that the Chiefs could absolutely take advantage of.
Wink Martindale defenses have an identity — they want to blitz you into oblivion.
The Chiefs are a team that often puts pressure on teams to change their identity. Last year a lot of teams allowed the Chiefs to have easy yards in between the twenties — tightening up in the red zone — with the hopes of the offense making a mistake.
In the most recent match ups against the Chiefs, Martindale has maintained his and his defensive identity. They’ve brought pressure with a desire to dictate how the game is played — the Ravens try to force it on their terms.
The problem for Baltimore is that Patrick Mahomes is dominant against the blitz. He’s smart enough pre-snap to identify potential problems, and athletic enough to create out of structure when pressure gets home. The best quarterback in the world has thrived when pressured — so what does Martindale do with that?
Matt Lane mad an excellent point during the game preview episode of the KC Laboratory that bringing the blitz against a still-gelling offensive line could be a good idea. It could be just enough of a reason for him not to try and adjust what he asks his defense to do.
If that is the approach, they’ll still have to deal with Mahomes and physical and mental ability.
Considering all the ailments the Ravens have in their secondary, it’s going to be a big challenge to go toe-to-toe with a talented group. If they do blitz and play man behind it, look for secondary weapons like Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Mecole Hardman to get some opportunities to make some big plays — they both went over 60 yards receiving the last time these two teams matched up.
Matchup to watch: L’Jarius Sneed vs. Greg Roman
Greg Roman is a terrific offensive coordinator who has laid out excellent game plans that maximize Lamar Jackson’s effectiveness. He’s been able to force defenses into their base alignments to get middle of the field matchups against poor coverage linebackers, while still being one of the NFL’s best rushing offenses. With Jackson at the helm, the Ravens have been a consistent matchup threat for NFL defenses — yes, even the Chiefs, who have had success containing Jackson.
However, what we saw in Week 1 of the NFL season from the Ravens was a bit different. Suffering from some serious attrition at the running back position — and some shaky offensive line play — Roman and the Ravens altered the game plan to try to get the ball outside the numbers more, forcing the opposition’s defensive backs to make tackles in space.
Roman still stuck with some of his more traditional tactics, getting his speedy backs into space on stretch runs and flare-outs, putting a slot defender or safety one-on-one in the open field with a bigger back. Finally, we saw plenty of Jackson breaking the pocket quickly due to poor offensive line play, getting him into open field against the linebackers and defensive backs for big gains. All of these strategies might well come into play for the Ravens against a Chiefs defense that struggled to make tackles in week one — especially in the secondary.
Enter L’Jarius Sneed. Sneed will be one of the few Chiefs defenders to play 100% of the snaps and will have to be responsible for boundary receivers in the base defense, and slot receivers in sub-packages. If the Ravens attempt to play more horizontal — as they did in their Week 1 matchup — many of these routes will be developing underneath Sneed, especially in the slot. He’ll have to trigger downhill quickly against bubble screens, stretch runs, and quick passes to the flat — and make secure tackles — to keep the Chiefs defense ahead of the sticks.
Conversely, the Ravens attempted a few more boundary fades to try to open up and stretch the defense in week one — a lower percentage throw that could result in more 50/50 opportunities for the defensive back. If the Chiefs are in their base defense, Sneed would be tasked with carrying the vertical routes, giving him an opportunity to showcase his ball skills and try to get on the board with a turnover.
Even though the Ravens offense is depleted, Roman and Jackson are still a dangerous pair. The ball should come out of Jackson’s hands quickly and into space — on bubble screens or flares — resulting in some opportunities for the Chiefs defensive backs to make plays. After a bit of a slow start in week one, I expect Sneed to be an impact player on shallow-developing plays and in deep coverage this week.