Chiefs vs. Saints, Week 5 preview

Let's just get to the bye week.

Yep, another primetime game! The Kansas City Chiefs (4-0) take on the New Orleans Saints (2-2) in Week 5 on Monday Night Football before taking a much-needed early bye. At this point, the Chiefs are just finding a way to get to that bye unscathed so they can figure out what to do about all of these injuries.

Key game details

Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo.
Date: Monday, Oct. 7
Time: 7:15 p.m. CT
Network/streaming: ESPN, ABC (local only)
Radio: 96.5 The Fan, Chiefs mobile app
Broadcasters: Joe Buck, Troy Aikman
Referee: Brad Rogers
Spread: Chiefs 5.5-point favorites
Weather: (Dome) Approx. 68°, clear skies, up to 5 mph winds, chance of rain 2%

Injury reports from Thursday

Thanks to Chiefs reporter Matt McMullen for the report.

The biggest injury that’s not on the Chiefs’ injury report is receiver Rashee Rice, who was placed on injured reserve Thursday due to a knee injury. Rice may have avoided an ACL tear, but he’ll need to wait until the swelling goes down in his knee before undergoing further testing. It’s looking like a return this season is still a possibility. We’ll know more after the bye.

Another notable injury for the Chiefs is running back Kareem Hunt, who made his Chiefs re-debut in Week 4 and did a nice job with 85 total yards. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Hunt sit this game out, as K.C. would likely rather not risk further injury to yet another offensive piece. If Hunt sits, expect rookie Carson Steele to earn the RB workload with Samaje Perine as the relief back.

The Saints, meanwhile, have a huge injury report, with a familiar face in linebacker Willie Gay showing up. He’ll be one to monitor, as will the statuses of tight end Taysom Hill and RB Alvin Kamara, among others.

Notable storylines for Week 5

Chiefs’ wide receiver group is now down two

Is it time to panic yet? The Chiefs are without Rice, WR Hollywood Brown and RB Isiah Pacheco. That makes the rookie Xavier Worthy the team’s presumed No. 1 wideout, with Justin Watson, Skyy Moore, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman rotating in the rest of the WR roles. And that might be the whole squad for a while, with a practice squad callup likely.

Many believe the Chiefs should seek a trade (myself included). But that doesn’t help them this week, so they’ll need to roll with whom they have on Monday night. The biggest question is whether Worthy can step up to be the go-to guy. He had the game-sealing catch and a 54-yard touchdown last week, so he has shown promise. This game will show whether the Chiefs can get by with their current guys for a while, or if they need to recruit some major help before the trade deadline.

Patrick Mahomes must correct mistakes

Mahomes has five interceptions in his last four games. That’s a rate that he’s not used to having. Those mistakes must be reined in with the way the Chiefs’ offense has been trending downward with each game this season. The team can’t afford to put the ball back into the opponent’s hands because the offense simply doesn’t have enough star playmakers on the field to make up for those mistakes. If that means Mahomes takes fewer risks on Monday, so be it.

The blocking must be better

On the flip side, the offensive miscues are certainly not all on Mahomes and injuries. There have been times when left tackle Wanya Morris has gotten worked by opposing defenses, while right tackle Jawaan Taylor and, surprisingly, right guard Trey Smith have allowed the most pressures on the team thus far.

Allowing pressure has forced Mahomes to lose trust in his protection and bounce out of pockets and/or force throws with improper mechanics, leading to incompletions or throwaways. For the Chiefs to succeed on offense with these injuries piling up, the offensive line must give Mahomes clean pockets early to make sure he has confidence later in the game.

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Benny & The ‘Buy-Ins’: Higher/Lower Picks for Chiefs vs. Saints on Underdog Fantasy, by Ben Heisler

LAST WEEK’S RECORD: 1-2
OVERALL RECORD: 5-7

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Travis Kelce - 5.5 Receptions - HIGHER

We’re going right back to the well with Kelce after delivering on his higher number from a week ago. The future Hall of Famer had by far his best performance of the season in Week 4 vs. the Chargers and will need to remain a stable option for the Chiefs offense with Rice out for the foreseeable future.

It’s also worth noting that the week prior, Philadelphia Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert had his way with the Saints, racking up 11 targets for 10 receptions and 170 yards.

Patrick Mahomes: 35.5 Longest Completion - LOWER

Taking in Mahomes’ home run to Worthy was majestic, but this season it has been more of an outlier than what we’ve typically expected. Mahomes ranks dead last amongst starting quarterbacks in air yards per attempt (shoutout Rich Hribar of Sharp Football Analysis) while the Saints allow the fewest passing points/attempt.

There will be the splash play here and there because he’s still Mahomes, but even with Worhy’s speed, I still have a difficult time projecting anything higher than 35.5.

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Chiefs-Saints matchup history

The Chiefs and Saints don’t meet often, playing each other just 12 times dating back to 1972. The Chiefs lead the all-time series 7-5.

The last time the Chiefs and Saints played…

The Chiefs beat the Saints 32-29 on December 20, 2020. That was actually the final regular season loss for legendary Saints QB Drew Brees, who threw for 234 yards, three touchdowns and one interception (to former Chiefs cornerback L’Jarius Sneed) in that game. It was relatively tight for the first three quarters, but the Chiefs pulled away in the fourth.

The best Chiefs-Saints game ever was…

Though it was by one of the worst teams the Chiefs have ever fielded, K.C. managed to earn one of its two wins in 2012 against the Brees-led Saints. The Chiefs went down 24-6 in the third quarter, but Chiefs legend Jamaal Charles went absolutely nuts and earned a total of 288 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown, including a 91-yard rushing touchdown. Chiefs great linebacker Justin Houston also earned a safety that day, and the Chiefs won 27-24 in overtime.

Chiefs-Saints prediction, picks

While the Chiefs are undefeated, all four wins have been by seven points or fewer. Meanwhile, the Saints’ two losses were by three and two points, while both of their wins were blowouts. In another universe, the Chiefs could be 2-2 while New Orleans could be 4-0. That just shows how much closer these two teams might be than we think.

Will the Chiefs beat the Saints?

I think the Chiefs will squeak out a victory in a very close, Chiefs-like fashion, but it won’t be easy. I trust K.C.’s strong defense to keep the team in this game when things get tough, but I don’t really trust K.C.’s offense right now. It’s struggling to score in the red zone, earning a touchdown on only 45.5 percent of red zone trips, 24th in the league. I expect this to be a Harrison Butker game for the Chiefs.

Will the Chiefs cover the spread?

I don’t think so — 5.5 points seems steep for the Chiefs, even if two of their wins were by seven. It seems more likely to be a close game, with potential to come down to the wire.

Wes’ pick: Chiefs 19, Saints 17