Chiefs vs. Steelers Playoff Preview: Scheme Spotlight, Matchups to Watch, and More
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The Kansas City Chiefs and Pittsburgh Steelers meet at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday night in the AFC Wildcard round.
Here’s what you need to know:
Scheme Spotlight
The Kansas City Chiefs first round playoff matchup is the first of four possible rematches during this playoff run. Rematches are always incredibly hard to plan for because it’s impossible to know if the opponent is going to continue with their general gameplan from the first matchup or if they are going to specifically design a new game plan based on what happened in the last game.
This is the difficult task the Chiefs are facing this weekend as they play the Pittsburgh Steelers for the second time within three weeks. Do the Steelers continue with the game plan they thought was best from the first matchup or do they come with something completely different? It’s the million dollar question that is nearly impossible to answer until the game starts. For the Scheme Spotlight this week we are going to look at beating one of the most common coverages by the Steelers in the first matchup, Cover-3.
Beating Cover-3
Despite the common narrative of the Chiefs being limited entirely by two-high coverages, plenty of teams down the stretch mained out of single high structures vs the Chiefs. The Steelers, for example, played a significant amount of Cover-3 (zone blitzes and straight up) against the Chiefs in the first matchup.
One could make the case that maybe it wasn’t the best strategy given the Chiefs success against the Steelers, but they were the only team to play the Chiefs this way down the stretch. The key to the Chiefs’ success was being willing to take the shallow stuff and pick up smaller chunks of plays to keep the chains moving.
They had a lot of success attacking over the middle of the field when the Steelers kept Minkah Fitzpatrick as the deep safety. Without the playmaking ability of Fitzpatrick cast-off deep downfield, there was no fear in attacking the Steelers middle of the field coverage time and time again.
This isn’t to say the Chiefs were perfect in the game vs Cover-3 and this could likely lead to the Steelers continuing to play this way. The issue with the Chiefs a lot of the year has been an inability to execute on vertical passes even when they are open and that trend continued vs the Steelers. The Steelers may feel comfortable to continue to play their predominant coverages - Cover-3 and Cover-1 - again because the Chiefs haven’t shown an ability to consistently punish teams doing so outside of the Las Vegas Raiders.
That doesn’t mean the Chiefs weren’t able to get a handful of quality looks on passes downfield, they were just unable to connect. The Chiefs have slowly transformed in 2021 to a fantastic ball control, timing based passing attack that matriculates the ball down the field. To continue to have so much space to operate underneath the Chiefs will have to start hitting some of the vertical shots to keep defenses honest.
After the hot start of the 2018 season, defenses transitioned to a softer Cover-3 type shell to handle the Chiefs vertical passing attack. The Chiefs quickly found ways to attack that by creating bit plays on crossing routes and deep out-breaking routes from condensed alignments. The first matchup with the Steelers is a prime example of a team that was willing to continue to live in that world vs the Chiefs and the Chiefs may not have punished them enough to force them out of it.
What is Big Ben Doing?
"We don’t have a chance, so let’s just go in and have fun." - Ben Roethlisberger
It is presumed that Big Ben is in the final year of his career. He had his ceremonious finale two weeks ago in Pittsburgh with a win over the Cleveland Browns — a team he’s dominated in his career. Last week with an OT win over the Ravens, and help from the Colts, Chargers and Raiders, they turned an 8% chance of a playoff appearance heading into the day into the final spot in the AFC.
It’s likely that the last time Roethlisberger will set foot on a field competitively, and instead of expressing gratitude for a chance to extend his career, he’s playing the defeatist card.
He’s called his team the 14th best team in the 14th field. He’s said his team isn’t supposed to be here. He’s taking the “nobody believes in us” take to an extreme we’ve ever seen.
Obviously the sentiment isn’t what’s really being said in the locker room. It’s a motivational tactic they’re using publicly to drum up some kind of energy to motivate them as quite literally the biggest underdog (12.5 points) during Wild Card Weekend.
His comments are beyond the norm — and it’s such a bizarre approach for someone whose football life is on it’s last gimpy leg.
The thing about all of his statements? He’s right. They’re not good, they’re probably not supposed to be here. And the have no business beating the Chiefs on Sunday.
Tomorrow will mark the five year anniversary of the Chiefs’ playoff loss to the Steelers in Arrowhead — a game with controversy, questionable play calling, and Pittsburgh failing to score a touchdown but still finding a way to win. The Chiefs — the two seed — squandered their bye week in the playoffs and failed to win a home playoff game.
Payback is in order. There’s no fitting resolution than to prove Big Ben right on all the drama he created. He’ll come to regret it if the Chiefs do what they’re supposed to on Sunday. It could be an unceremonious and anti-climatic ending to his career.
Matchup to Watch: Pat Freiermuth vs Chiefs Second Level
The last time these two teams faced off against each other, there were multiple players missing due to injury and COVID-19 protocols. The major focus was on a missing tight end and integral part of the offense in Travis Kelce, but the Steelers had their own missing weapon at the tight end position: Pat Freiermuth.
Freiermuth was drafted in the second round of the 2021 draft after the team took running back Najee Harris in the first. Harris leads the team in touchdowns, scrimmage yards, carries, and is third on the team in targets — so he understandable garners the headlines when talking about rookie performance. However, Freiermuth is fourth on the team in targets, third in receptions, and third in touchdowns this season. He’s also one of Ben Roethlisberger’s top weapons on third down as a reliable middle of the field option. His absence in the first Chiefs/Steelers matchup was much larger than was originally discussed — and his inclusion in this week’s matchup could make a significant difference.
Freiermuth leads the Steelers in snaps this season, which shouldn’t be a surprise based on his pre-draft evaluation. He’s a good run blocker, a savvy route runner, and he has sure hands. He’s not an especially dangerous vertical threat and runs the majority of his routes in the shallow to intermediate parts of the field. Based on how Steve Spagnuolo likes to play from the second level, that should put Friermuth on the Chiefs outside linebackers in base and nickel or Dan Sorensen in the dime defense.
Unfortunately, those players (Sorensen, Willie Gay, Nick Bolton, and Ben Niemann) have given up the highest success rate and most yards per target of any group on the Chiefs defense. The opposition has made that group a focal point several times this season and has found success through the air — which could be further exacerbated by a heavy play-action passing game that could pull the second level of the defense forward. Freiermuth has thrived in these situations this year and has helped extend drives, as he has converted more first downs per target than any player on the Steelers roster.
While Najee Harris’ availability for Sunday’s matchup remains to be seen, Freiermuth should be a full-go for the Steelers offense. That could spell trouble for a Chiefs defense that has struggled to defend where Freiermuth has operated this season. If Harris is on a reduced snap count — or has to miss time — we could see an increased focus on defending the Steelers rookie tight end this weekend. Should the Chiefs second level be able to take away one of Roethlisberger’s best middle-of-the-field options, they could make it a long day for the Steelers.