Chiefs vs. Texans, Week 16 preview
Short week before an even shorter week.
In Saturday’s Kansas City Chiefs (13-1) vs. Houston Texans (9-5) matchup, K.C. probably has a bit more to play for than Houston. The Chiefs are still looking to lock up the No. 1 seed, while the Texans have already locked up the AFC South. At this point, Houston is playing for pride and a slightly better playoff seed.
Key game details
Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo.
Date: Saturday, Dec. 21
Time: Noon CT
Network/streaming: NBC, Peacock
Radio: 96.5 The Fan, Chiefs mobile app
Broadcasters: Noah Eagle, Todd Blackledge
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Spread: Chiefs 3.5-point favorites
Weather: Approx. 34°, clear skies, up to 6 mph winds, chance of rain 2%
Injury reports from Thursday
Image below from Chiefs reporter Matt McMullen.
Bad news first: Left tackle D.J. Humphries won’t go this week, which likely means another week of Joe Thuney at LT while Mike Caliendo plays left guard. Thuney was so-so in that role last week, though he was facing top-tier competition. Caliendo, meanwhile, had a pretty good game, which is a good sign for K.C.’s depth at the position.
The good news: Quarterback Patrick Mahomes will play despite slightly spraining his ankle last week. There was some consideration to sit him and play backup Carson Wentz, but it looks like Mahomes moved around pretty well during practice this week. More good news: Receiver Hollywood Brown is back, and he will play Saturday.
Notable storylines for Week 16
Should Mahomes really be playing?
Mahomes’ ankle will obviously be the most important thing to monitor this week. He’s had success in the past playing with hurt ankles, but do we really want him out there risking health in a regular season game? Wentz has proven to be a capable starter in the past, so it seems risky to play Mahomes in what might be a winnable game without him.
Mahomes’ injury wouldn’t be as concerning if the offensive line wasn’t so shaky. The O-line allowed 15 pressures last week, though somehow none of them turned into sacks. Still, with Mahomes’ presumed limited mobility this week, those pressures could turn into sacks. With his injured ankle, the last thing we want is Mahomes enduring more hits.
Hollywood Brown debuts
The plus side is that Brown will make his regular season debut for the Chiefs. The rehab on his sternoclavicular injury went well, allowing him to come back much sooner than expected. It doesn’t seem like this will be an “ease him back in” situation, either — coach Andy Reid noted that Brown has been putting in all kinds of conditioning work over the course of the season because, as he put it, his legs were working just fine.
With that in mind, don’t be surprised if Brown sees a good chunk of offensive snaps this week. It’ll be interesting to see how he’s used — will the Chiefs try him deep, or let him eat across the middle? Maybe a mix of both is in store for the sixth-year wideout.
No. 1 seed scenarios
As mentioned earlier, the Chiefs are playing for the No. 1 seed. How can they get it? Well, the path this week is simple, though improbable: the Chiefs would need a win plus a Buffalo Bills loss to the New England Patriots. The Bills losing to New England seems highly unlikely, though weirder things have happened in the NFL. If, somehow, the Chiefs and Pats win, then the Chiefs’ final two games will essentially be meaningless and they’ll be able to rest starters as they please.
If the Chiefs and Bills win this week, then K.C. will need one more win under its belt (or one more Bills loss) to lock up the No. 1 seed. The Pittsburgh Steelers and Denver Broncos are left on the Chiefs’ schedule, so the road is quite tough to get there. The moral of the story this week? Just take care of business against Houston, and hope (but don’t expect) things fall your way Sunday.
Benny & The ‘Buy-Ins’: Higher/Lower Picks for Chiefs vs. Texans on Underdog Fantasy, by Ben Heisler
LAST WEEK’S RECORD: 2-0
OVERALL RECORD: 20-21
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Another two-win week in Week 15 puts us at 4-1-0 over the last two! The voided play came by way of Browns kicker Dustin Hopkins being a late scratch vs. the Chiefs.
It’s cold out in K.C., so let’s stay hot on Underdog this week!
Joe Mixon: 87.5 rush + rec yards (LOWER)
Credit to Mixon for an outstanding first season in Houston, but it’s a tough matchup on Saturday in K.C. The Chiefs rank first in fewest points allowed to opposing running backs this season, and he’s also dealing with a nagging ankle injury and limited practice this week. He’s also coming off just 23 rushing yards in Week 15 on only 12 carries.
While he’s projected to get the rock 17.5 times, I just don’t see the same burst as before, having finished with 50 yards or less in three of his last four games.
Xavier Worthy: 1.5 rush yards (HIGHER)
We cashed on Worthy last week to clear his rush + rec yards projection, and we’ll go back to the well again in Week 16 after leading the Chiefs by a wide margin in targets in Week 15.
But why only focus on the run? For starters, he’s cleared this in four of his last five matchups, and had his best game of the season on the ground last week, averaging 10 yards-per-carry in the run game. Incorporating Worthy in the run game also helps keep the terrific Texans pass rush at bay.
All he needs is one for this to clear, and I expect him to get fed vs. a Texans team that’s struggled of late vs. the run (just under 110 yards/game).
Patrick Mahomes: 225.5 passing yards (HIGHER)
“I hope he’s mobile enough cause we comin in Arrowhead… I ain’t making no threats, I’m making promises…” - Tim Settle Jr.
If you didn’t have to immediately google Tim Settle Jr. after reading that, I’m quite impressed with your NFL knowledge and acumen. He’s a defensive tackle for the Texans, and apparently he’s out here sending a message despite few people having any idea who he is.
If this were Will Anderson or Danielle Hunter trying to rally their team as elite pass rushers, that would be one thing. Instead, all he did was give Mahomes some added fuel to dice them up on Saturday at home.
Now, could he be in some trouble? It’s certainly feasible given the ankle injury, and the Texans coming in allowing the lowest passer rating in the NFL. But Mahomes now has to throw more often from the pocket, and I think the constant body blows, dinking and dunking could turn into some knockout punches with deep looks and major yardage if they can scheme some more guys open downfield and make Houston play to stop the run and short passes.
Is this a walk down narrative street? Probably, but we’ve all seen the Dwight Schrute/Patrick Mahomes meme: the man keeps receipts. He’ll make a list and check it twice for good measure.
Chiefs-Texans matchup history
The Chiefs and Texans have played each other 14 times dating back to 2003, with two of those games coming in the playoffs. Kansas City leads the all-time series 9-5, with a 2-0 record in the postseason.
The last time the Chiefs and Texans played…
The Chiefs beat the Texans 30-24 on December 18, 2022. The Texans entered the game as one of the league’s worst teams, yet they were able to take Kansas City to the wire. The game was tied at 24 heading into overtime, and the Chiefs eventually won thanks to a 26-yard touchdown run by running back Jerick McKinnon.
One of the best Chiefs-Texans games was…
You know the one. The Chiefs took on the Texans in the divisional round of the 2019-20 playoffs on January 12, 2020, and K.C. managed to go down 24-0 early in the second quarter. Things looked glum for the Chiefs, but the vibe sort of changed after a 58-yard kick return by Mecole Hardman. The Chiefs scored, then safety Daniel Sorensen stopped a Texans fake punt which gave the Chiefs great field position to score again.
Houston coughed up the ball on the following kick return, allowing K.C. to score yet again, and eventually the Chiefs scored one more time before halftime, taking the lead 28-24. From there, the Texans crumbled, and the Chiefs ended up winning 51-31.
Chiefs-Texans prediction, picks
I’m not really sure what to expect with this one. It’s Texans QB C.J. Stroud’s first time against Steve Spagnuolo’s defense, which could be a good thing in terms of Spags throwing surprises at him. However, I’m a bit worried that K.C. will get torched by WR Nico Collins. Luckily, the Texans’ offensive line isn’t great, with Stroud enduring the second-most sacks in the league at 45. That’s good news for Chiefs defensive lineman Charles Omenihu, who hopes to eat against his former squad.
Will the Chiefs beat the Texans?
Ultimately, I think the Chiefs will win, barring any setbacks with Mahomes’ injury. I think K.C. will be locked in for this game with its sights set on obtaining the one seed. I expect quick passes to combat Houston’s pass rush, with (hopefully) the running game mixed in. The Chiefs might have to rely on Harrison Butker’s leg in this one given Houston’s strong defense.
Will the Chiefs cover the spread?
It’s a short spread at 3.5 points in favor of K.C., but I honestly wouldn’t bank on the Chiefs covering. They’re 6-8 ATS this season, finally covering last week but failing to do so in their previous seven games. I expect this one to come down to a field goal, which has been the case in four of the Chiefs’ last six games.
Wes’ pick: Chiefs 20, Texans 17