Confessions of a Chiefs Fan

The latest newsletter from KCSN Sports Data Scientist, Joseph Hefner

I’m so tired. Our Chiefs are 3-0, but I just don’t know if I can take many more games like the first three have been. It’s exhausting. Win against the Ravens by a toenail. Win against the Bengals by a pass interference call. Win against the Falcons by a spectacular blitz call from Spags on fourth down. My nerves are shot.

I do not like watching my team participate in exciting, close games. Blowouts are delightful fun. Stress-free, laughing and toasting all game, doing the “rocketship” with my kids after every touchdown. Oh, you don’t know what the rocketship is? I blast off with my son, throwing him up over my shoulder, his hip on my shoulder, legs back, arms forward, horizontal like he’s flying, then run screaming up and down the hallway, then flip him down back onto his feet as he lands on “Jupiter” (his favorite planet).

I know how to make my kids love football.

This years’ brand of KC football? I do not love it. I don’t even like it, if I’m being perfectly honest. The first two weeks were against two of the best teams in the NFL, at least according to most power rankings, and Vegas odds. Ravens have a great defense. Cincy has been able to stop our offense multiple times in our games. But the Falcons? We had a nail biter against the Falcons? We were a missed defensive pass interference call on Nick Bolton away from trailing late in the fourth quarter.

Mahomes threw his third absolutely hideous interception of the season. Three games, three bad (bad, bad) interceptions. His average depth of target (ADOT) is 5.2 this season. That’s more than a full yard less than last year, which was a previous low. It’s more than two yards worse than 2022, which had been his previous low, until last year.

Look, there’s nothing inherently wrong with a low ADOT. We won the Super Bowl the last two years, both of which had a career low ADOT for Mahomes. It’s fine. Especially with Rice, who is absolutely incredible after the catch, the ADOT is less relevant. My complaint is not that it isn’t working. By most numbers, our offense was actually pretty good against the Falcons. And you absolutely cannot argue about being 3-0. Or winning back to back Super Bowls with this style of offense.

My complaint is that it is not fun. At least not for me. I loved the high-flying offenses of 2018-2020. We could score from anywhere, at any time. Loved the third and whatever, it doesn’t matter, because Mahomes is just that good. Now? Feels like every third and long is a short pass and prayer that we can get the yards after catch to extend the drive. 10-15 play drives. 10 yard holding penalty kills a drive.

Eh, whatever. ADOT is ephemeral. Rings are forever. And the Chiefs have three of them in the past 5 years, and are undefeated through three weeks, with wins against two major conference rivals. We know that nothing matters for us until January, and our nail-biting regular season games reflect that. Reid consistently goes vanilla against teams we should beat by a lot. It’s stressful, but it works.