“Even When They Lose, They Win”
This newsletter is a guest post from one of our OG subscribers, Ross Sawyer
How the 2020 Super Bowl loss may have been the biggest gift the Chiefs will receive in the Mahomes Era.
By Ross Sawyer
"If it ain't broke, don't fix it." This charming Midwestern phrase perfectly encapsulates the attitude the Chiefs front office employed after winning Super Bowl LIV against the San Francisco 49ers. Kansas City had been a dominant force in the NFL, but after a devastating loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the 2020 Super Bowl, the team was forced to reevaluate its strategy for team building.
The team was faced with a crucial decision- whether to stick to their "run it back" mentality or make the difficult and ultimately necessary changes to improve their chances of winning multiple championships in the future.
The "run it back" strategy had been the Chiefs' approach in 2019, when they relied on the same core of players that had helped them win the Super Bowl the previous year.
Many fans around the team had hesitations about the premise of a "run it back" season because the NFL is a well-known, quickly adapting league where advantages are very difficult to find. Maintaining the teams construction was based on the assumption that if the team was good enough to win in 2019, it should be good enough to win in 2020.
Why mess with a good thing, right?
However, the loss to the Buccaneers revealed the need for a different approach. The Chiefs were forced to acknowledge that the league was constantly evolving around them and that teams that remain stagnant, even for a single offseason, would quickly be left behind.
The Buccaneers were built perfectly to take advantage of the Chiefs' offensive line woes and their aging, outmatched secondary. In the 2020 offseason, the Bucs loaded up at defensive line and signed multiple dynamic pass catchers, ensuring advantage where the Chiefs had liabilities. The "run it back" mantra would return the team to the Super Bowl, but it failed them in the reaching their ultimate goal.
The front office had seen that the team, and their team building philosophy, was broken and in need of fixing. They would quickly scrap the "run it back" phrase and underlying roster building ideology, opting for an evolving model - putting value and depth over sentimentality and continuity.
To address their shortcomings, the Chiefs made the bold move of aggressively overhauling their offensive line. The injury-riddled offensive line had been a major issue for the team in the 2020 Super Bowl, and the Chiefs knew they needed to make changes to be competitive in the future. Although Mitchell Schwartz and Eric Fisher had been anchors and leaders in the offensive line room, both had significant injuries in 2020. Veach made the gut-wrenching decision to cut Schwartz and Fisher and brought in a few new starters, including guard Joe Thuney and tackle Orlando Brown Jr., both of whom were generally seen as upgrades due to their health and youth.
They also spent significant draft capital on center Creed Humphrey and guard Trey Smith, who both became rapid and necessary contributors. In a single offseason, Veach turned a major weakness into a foundational strength. Throughout the 2021 season, the offensive line played well, confirming the wisdom of reinforcing weak spots rather than hoping for better injury luck or player improvement.
The following offseason, the Chiefs also made the difficult decision to trade wide receiver Tyreek Hill, their most dynamic player. The move was seen as a risk, but the team was confident in Mahomes' abilities and felt he would be able to lead the team to success without Hill. As a result of sending Hill to Miami, the Chiefs were able to revamp the aging defense with the draft capital the trade returned. They quickly replaced Hill with inexpensive but talented assets like Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Juju Smith-Schuster.
Veach again attacked their greatest weakness, fielding a talented and youthful secondary by drafting defensive backs like Trent McDuffie, Bryan Cook, Joshua Williams, and Jaylen Watson. This was viewed by many as bold and idealistic, but Veach had confidence that youth and inexperience in a defensive secondary were not barriers to success. He had good reason for his conviction.
In losing to the Buccaneers in 2020, the Chiefs watched as a young, talented group of defensive backs put the clamps on the dynamic duo of future hall of famers Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill, holding the Chiefs offense to a measly 9 points. The front office had confidence in their defensive backs coach, Dave Merritt, and his ability to teach and mature this batch of defensive backs.
The decision to lean into rebuilding the secondary paid early and significant dividends in the AFC championship game as those rookies put on an impressive display of athleticism and maturity, limiting arguably the leagues most dynamic group of pass catchers and creating time for the defensive line to allow the defensive line to get to quarterback Joe Burrow.
The lessons learned in response to the Chiefs 2020 loss to the Buccaneers are arguably enabling the current success of the team as the chiefs return to the Super Bowl yet again. Not only did the Chiefs get incredible return on their faith in the rookie defensive backs this season, but they will have cost controlled cohort for at least the next 3 seasons.
All of these difficult roster decisions coalesced beautifully as the Chiefs faced off against the Eagles last week. The offensive line was dominate against the vaunted Eagle’s defensive line as they didn’t surrender a single sack to a pass rush who had led the league. Not only were they impressive in pass protection, but they may’ve been better when they were blocking for the run game. Their effort, paired with Isiah Pacheco’s seeming disregard for his own humanity (and defenders), allowed Reid to lean on the run rather than Pat’s gimpy ankle in the second half.
The revamped offensive line wasn’t the only position group to validate the front office’s decision making in the Super Bowl. Veach’s gamble to collect several undervalued assets at receiver, rather than a single game breaking superstar, paid dividends in a significant way. Skyy Moore and Kadarius Toney both scored touchdowns on brilliantly schemed whip routes that Tyreek would’ve likely ran had he been on the team.
Specifically, Valdez-Scantling’s deep speed took the top off of the defense throughout the game in a similar way that Tyreek traditionally did, allowing not only Kelce, but also Juju to thrive in gaping holes in the underneath zones. Although Tyreek’s speed was absolutely terrifying, Mahomes with a complete and deep stable of pass catchers might be even more terrifying to defenses.
The front office placed its trust in Mahomes and Reid’s ability to overcome and that is exactly what they did. In the ultimate affirmation of their decisions, the Chiefs lifted the Super Bowl trophy in what many said was be a rebuilding year. Now Kansas City enters Mahomes prime loaded with talented and experienced youth, a bevy of draft picks, and plenty of cap space to add talent. These young Chiefs are ahead of schedule and the rest of the league is playing catch up.
Although KC fans despise the fact that Tom Brady beat Patrick Mahomes in what is likely to be their only Super Bowl battle, it could be the most influential game in the Mahomes era in terms of the long term success for building the team around the superstar quarterback. And for that, Kansas City fans… owe Tom Brady a thank you?
Yuck. No thank you.
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