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What we're paying attention to this week in Chiefs-Jaguars
The Chiefs face yet another AFC South opponent in a Sunday matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Old friend Doug Pederson comes back to Arrowhead Stadium to matchup against the 6-2 Chiefs.
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Here are things to pay attention to in the Chiefs’ matchup against the Jaguars.
Key Matchup — Chris Jones vs. Brandon Scherff
Jones has played well throughout the season, putting together arguably the most consistent season of his career. He’s had quality performances against the run and the pass, and has clearly taken his game to a new level under new defensive line coach Joe Cullen. Over the past three weeks, Jones’ pressures have turned into more sacks and his run defense has translated into more tackles for loss. Quite simply, Jones is getting stronger as the year has gone along.
That leads to this week’s matchup against a veteran guard and leader in the Jaguars offensive line room. Scherff has had an up and down year for Jacksonville. He’s one of the few players on the Jaguars offense that is getting to the right spots and executing the initial assignment correctly on most plays – but he hasn’t finished plays well and has routinely quit in the middle of blocks. That is a recipe for disaster against a player like Jones that has worked well late in the reps – especially this year.
Jones has not been as “splashy” this season – despite him being on pace for the second most sacks in his career – and this week lines up to be a fourth straight good performance. If Scherff finds himself in yet another “off” week against the Chiefs, Jones could make him pay. A game wrecking performance by the Chiefs’ best defender could go a long way toward closing out another AFC South opponent.
Offensive Player to Watch — Kadarius Toney
With Mecole Hardman potentially out for the game against Jacksonville with an abdominal injury, there’s a chance that the Chiefs could turn to the recently acquired Kadarius Toney for an increased roll in the offense.
While the skillsets of the two are not identical, there is some cross over in some things that they are capable of doing. Trust is a huge factory in the offense with both the coaching staff and Mahomes, but Toney can do things on the field that few on the roster can.
This week could be a chance to get Toney further integrated into the offense on some manufactured touches that would usually go to Hardman at full strength. While both players operate differently with the ball in their hands, both bring some dynamic elements to the game — Hardman with his pure speed and Toney with burst, change of direction and still some speed as well.
Toney could be leaned on for some of the easier concepts that make up the Chiefs offense by putting the ball in the talented former first rounder’s hands. This could be a prime week to do it.
Defensive Player to Watch — Trent McDuffie
The long awaited return of the Chiefs’ first pick in the 2022 Draft finally happened last week against the Titans.
Tennessee challenged him — and tried to pick on him with a big pass catcher isolate — but McDuffie showed why the Chiefs invested heavily in him. He has responded well in the small sample size he’s had his rookie season — matching up with receivers of all sizes and locking them down. He’s yet to allow a completion.
It’s exciting to see McDuffie return, and the results to this point have been encouraging. Getting to see another week of sample size will be fun to watch. With an eye towards the postseason, McDuffie’s growth for the remaining of the season will be important to monitor. The Jaguars could be in a position to sling the ball around the yard if the Chiefs do what they should expect to do offensively.
The Jaguars have a variety of body types and capabilities within their personnel to give a lot of looks for the rookie cornerback. It’ll be exciting to see how he responds.
Winning the First and Third Quarter
The Jaguars have been a very volatile team in terms of splits by quarter all season. Offensively they are top 10 in both first and third scoring. This has to be - partially, at the very least - credited to Doug Pederson who always comes in with a quality set of scripted plays and adjustments right out of half time. The downside for the Jaguars is that dip to a bottom 10 offense, in terms of points scored, in the second and fourth quarters. Once they are out of those scripted plays and halftime adjustments, it becomes about consistent execution and that’s where they struggled.
The Chiefs’ defense is just above average in both first and third quarter defense. Really, the Chiefs’ defense has been very solid after the first drive of each half where teams are able to attack them with their designed plays. Once those plays are done, Steve Spagnuolo starts to mix things up and get into his bag. The biggest difference between these two units is that the Chiefs’ defense gets better in the second and fourth quarters while the Jaguars’ offense falls off.
There is another side to this coin as well. While the Jaguars offense is good during these quarters, the Chiefs offense is still better. The Chiefs’ offense also carries that top 10 scoring offense throughout every quarter and not just half of them. The Jaguars’ defense is equally impressive as the offense in the first and third quarter but suffers from the same “late-in-the-half” let down.
For the Chiefs, the key is simply to not get beaten badly in the first and third quarter scoring differential. Their ability to maintain consistency deep into halves will allow them to erase small deficits if they can’t outright win those quarters. For the Jaguars, they have to jump out to a big lead in the opening quarter of both halves and try to hold out as they begin to fall flat.
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