Mahomes and the Young Guns
The latest newsletter from KCSN Sports Data Scientist, Joseph Hefner.
Justin Herbert just got the biggest contract in NFL history by average per year (APY). Before him, it was Lamar Jackson. And before Lamar, it was Jalen Hurts. That’s the story of the NFL, especially at the top. The highest-paid player is more often the latest player paid than it is the best player at that position. Joe Burrow is expected to top all of those contracts later this offseason.
With all of that said, I wanted to take a look at the careers of these QBs who are resetting the market. Specifically, I want to take a look at the 2020 QB class (Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson), and the 2020 QB class (Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, and Jalen Hurts). I think most people would rank those 5 QBs, plus Mahomes, as the cream of the QB crop right now. Rodgers is top 5, but he’s old enough I didn’t want to include him in this.
What I wanted to do was look at QB efficiency and performance over time. I used EPA as the measurement stat, and did what is called a “rolling average” of the past 250 dropbacks or designed QB runs. That means the chart starts with the average EPA of a QB’s 1st through 250th dropback/run, then dropbacks 2-251, 3-252, and so forth. That has the effect of smoothing the lines quite a bit. 250 dropbacks/runs are between 5 and 6 full games. This helps to show their consistency over multiple games.
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