Over the Hill

The latest from the sports data science guy at KC Sports Network, Joseph Hefner

The day was Wednesday, March 23rd. Free agency had been going for a week, and the Chiefs had largely sat it out. As fans, we had seen the Bills sign Von Miller, Russell Wilson traded to the Broncos, the Chargers had signed J.C. Jackson and traded for Khalil Mack, the Raiders had traded for Davante Adams, and plenty of other moves.

I was working from home as usual, trying to accomplish literally anything for my day job in the middle of free agency, when my brother texted me a tweet from Ian Rapoport about a possible trade of Tyreek Hill.

Ian Rapoport @RapSheet

Another blockbuster coming? Despite an offer from the #Chiefs that would make superstar Tyreek Hill one of the highest-paid receivers, extension talks have stalled and Kansas City has now given Hill’s agent permission to seek a trade, sources tell me and @TomPelissero.

Exactly 90 minutes after my brothers first text (I checked), Adam Schefter tweeted out that we had traded Hill to the Miami Dolphins. Needless to say, I did not earn “Employee of the day” that day. Or that week, honestly. It was a lot to process.

I had so many questions. Why did we split up the absolute best pairing of WR and QB in the league? What happens to our offense without Hill? How do we replace a guy so uniquely talented? Are we trading Hill so we can pay Orlando? Will Mahomes still be good, or was Keenan Allen right, and “This [trade] gonna expose some people”?

I’m really big into the offseason. I love the theory around roster building, and this move made sense in that context. We now had significant extra money for the next several years, and several more draft picks. The only real question was how our offense was going to evolve. So let’s dive in and see, now that the regular season is over.

First, let’s take a look at the formations the Chiefs used this year compared to 2021. In this graphic, you can see every formation the Chiefs used for more than 5% of their snaps in either season. In both seasons, that is just 11, 12, and 13 personnel. Those three formations accounted for 92% of all plays in 2021, and 95% in 2022.