Patrick Mahomes Isn't Playing Great Right Now.. and it's Okay to Admit It!

Over the halfway point of the season and it's clear that Mahomes hasn't been on his A-game consistently but it's going to be okay.

The Kansas City Chiefs suffered their first loss of the season at the hands of the Buffalo Bills this past week. This is far from a panic inducing occurrence for the Chiefs but it does serve as a sign that it’s okay to look critically at a team because objectively they aren’t invincible anymore, and we all know for the Chiefs that starts with the quarterback position.

As of Week 11 in the 2024 season, Patrick Mahomes is on pace to have his worst statistical season of his career. Whether that’s in counting stats, advanced stats, or even efficiency metrics the majority of the common analytics lead towards Mahomes struggling at the halfway point of the season. Yes, that also included the 2023 season in which nothing could go right for the offensive line or the wide receiver position, which makes it all the more frustrating.

This isn’t to say the Chiefs’ aren’t dealing with a handful of struggles offensively that are making it difficult for Mahomes. The pass protection metrics check out, but the pocket integrity and consistency seem well below average. The wide receiver room is riddled with injuries and new faces taking time to gel. The running game is efficient but lacks an explosive element that actually bothers defenses. There are plenty of reasons that Mahomes’ job is difficult this year but he’s the guy that is supposed to fix it and that hasn’t been the case so far. *The Chiefs are 9-1 so he’s fixing it in the biggest moments, but the cracks finally burst vs the Bills so it’s got to be given full attention now*

Let’s take a dive into the film vs the Buffalo Bills and see some of the issues creeping up in big moments.

Patrick Mahomes Struggles in 2024

The Chiefs are 9-1 Mahomes has been coming up big in the most important moments a ton this season, but the game long struggles are playing a role of the Chiefs being in those positions. He has also been fantastic on third downs but rather poor on first and second down, which again shows he’s still playing well in the biggest moments. With the preamble out of the way about how Mahomes is still good, we can now talk about the struggles.

Timing and Execution

Look, it sound simple but sometimes timing is just off for quarterbacks and that can impact the play. Mahomes has never been the most “timing driven” QB in the NFL due to the arm and physical talent to make up for being a tick late but it’s becoming a bigger issue over the last few seasons. The way modern defense is playing, sometimes passing lanes only open for a brief second and both the QB and receiver have to be ready for them.

We see two examples on this play of this happening. At the bottom of the screen, Xavier Worthy - the #3 WR - is running a Hitch route at the sticks. If the Bills are to play man coverage, that converts to a Whip route outside and away from the defender’s leverage. We can see Mahomes clearly ready to throw the ball but Worthy hesitates after the initial turn to open up for the ball. This allows Travis Kelce to clear the defensive back and allow him a clear angle to recover to Worthy’s new location on the Whip. Mahomes waited an extra beat incase it still became open but it never did forcing him to look backside.

Now Mahomes flips his eyes backside but he is a fraction a second late but that can be okay with a strong arm. DeAndre Hopkins is running a Dig and at the point Mahomes gets his eyes on him, Hopkins is fully exiting his break with enough separation to be consider “open”. Mahomes opts not to fire the ball to him and looks to scramble and gets sacked. It’s a tight window throw with the pocket collapsing - so not an easy throw - but he needs to be ready to fire the ball immediately after flipping his eyes that direction.