QB’s, RB’s, and the Rookie Wage Scale

The latest newsletter from KCSN Sports Data Scientist, Joseph Hefner.

Today we’re talking about the only two positions left on offense: Quarterbacks and running backs. Everyone knows that the only thing that matters on a football team is if you have a franchise quarterback or not. Patrick Mahomes makes even that irrelevant for all the other teams, as he’ll beat them anyway. The other thing everyone knows is that running backs don’t matter.

Let's check our assumptions at the door and see what the data says. Once again, this analysis is using Approximate Value, the pro football reference stat that translates offensive and defensive prowess into Approximate Value, and then divides that up between the various positions based on a series of formulas that are unique to each position.

Some level of positional value is baked in, but the stat is better at comparing within positions than it is at comparing between positions. It also favors high-scoring offenses, and defenses with the least points against, so the schedule a team faces can add bias to the stat. That means this stat is best used in the aggregate, rather than a direct comparison between individual players.

Ok, enough intro. On to the charts!! Here are the draft curves for quarterbacks and running backs drafted since 1999. Each dot corresponds to a single player drafted. The blue line is the specific position in question, and the gray lines are all the other positions, so you can see how the draft curve compares to the others.