Spreadsheet Warriors: Bills

The latest newsletter from KCSN Sports Data Scientist, Joseph Hefner

Undefeated no longer. The Buffalo Bills chose to go for it on 4^th and 2 at the 26 yard line to put the Chiefs down two possessions late in the 4^th quarter. With good coverage across the board, Josh Allen rumbled forward like the Buffalo he is, breaking through tackle attempts by Nazeeh Johnson and Nick Bolton, and finding the end zone. One PAT later, and the Bills lead the Chiefs 30-21. The Chiefs tried to respond, but the final drive ended in Mahomes second interception of the game.

Four times in the past four seasons, the Chiefs and Bills have faced off in the regular season. The Bills have won all four of those meetings. The silver lining here? Three times in the past four years, the Chiefs and Bills have faced off in the playoffs. The Chiefs have won all three of those meetings. Playoff Chiefs are different. We as fans should not ignore this loss due to the playoff success, but we should not read too much into a regular season loss, either.

Let’s get to the numbers.

Both teams had 9 drives in this game, not counting the meaningless Bills kneel down drive at the end. The Chiefs points per drive was a full point lower than the Bills. They had three scoring drives, all three of which were red zone drives, and all three ended in touchdowns. That’s the good news. Unfortunately, the Bills had five scoring drives. Four of those entered the red zone, and three went for touchdowns. The Bills final touchdown was scored from outside the red zone, as Allen ran it in from the 26.