Stats, Matchups, and Storylines: Chiefs vs. Eagles - Game Preview
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Andy Reid is looking to make history on Sunday as the Kansas City Chiefs (1-2) travel to the City of Brotherly Love to take on the Philadelphia Eagles (1-2) in a clash of hungry teams coming off back-to-back losses.
With a victory on Sunday, Reid would become the first coach in NFL history to win 100+ games with two different teams. Prior to joining the Chiefs in 2013, Reid had spent 14 years with the Eagles, winning nine division titles and three conference championships.
To get you prepared for Sunday’s showdown, here’s a rundown of what to know:
But first, here are a few “What to Watch” nuggets for Sunday:
• QB Patrick Mahomes aims to extend his streak to 29-consecutive games with a passing touchdown. His current streak of 28-consecutive games is the longest streak in franchise history and the longest active streak in the NFL.
• TE Travis Kelce aims for his third-consecutive game with at least 100 receiving yards. Kelce’s 27 games of 100+ receiving yards are a franchise record and the third-most by a tight end in league history, trailing only TE Rob Gronkowski (29) and Gonzalez (31).
• WR Tyreek Hill needs one touchdown to tie WR Otis Taylor (60) for the fifth-most total touchdowns in franchise history. Hill needs two touchdowns to tie RB Larry Johnson (61) for the fourth-most in Chiefs history.
Scheme Spotlight
After taking a nice little dive in some Philadelphia Eagles All-22, the nicest thing I can say is that the Chiefs offense should wipe the field with the Eagles’ defense. Whether the Eagles’ defense is spread out and playing in space or in heavier personnel packed into the box, all advantages should be leaning towards the Chiefs.
Exploiting the Eagles’ Defense With 12 Personnel
The Eagles’ linebacker group shares a lot of similarities with the Chiefs’ LB room over recent years, only struggling even more so this year. One easy way to ensure to keep as many LBs on the field as possible is to run heavier personnel on the offensive side. Specifically, using 12 personnel - one RB, two TEs, and two WRs - either forces the defense to “pick their poison”.
The defense is forced into playing lighter personnel and being at a disadvantage in the run game or playing heavier personnel and being at a disadvantage in the passing game. The biggest positive for the Chiefs in this particular matchup is that the Eagles struggle equally with both options.
When they get into their nickel defense, the safeties are forced to play a larger role in the run game but haven’t shown consistency in doing so. The defensive backs are easily washed out by the bigger blockers or struggle to properly run the alley vs the run. It also doesn’t help that the two LBs on the field struggle to make their impact felt as well.
When the Eagles stick to their base defense, the already athletically challenged defense is stressed even more. Teams can still find success running into the Eagles’ base defense but the most success can be found attacking the LBs vertically or horizontally. Oftentimes a team would expect their S play to cover for struggling LBs but the Eagles haven’t been that fortunate this year as their back-end play is equally as questionable.
Play-Action
As if it wasn’t a big enough mismatch, the Chiefs can take it a step further by throwing in a heavy play-action script vs the Eagles. With the linebackers and safeties already struggling to defend opposing offenses, throwing another read at - such as the run action - can make them play that much slower.
Going into this game, the Chiefs are in the bottom third of the NFL in play-action passing - both completion percentage and yards per attempt. This should be a game in which they can start to pad the stats a little bit even if the run game isn’t working.
Back to Basics: Fundamentals, Execution
The Chiefs issues in their second loss of the season weren’t getting into opponent territory — it was finishing with points. The Chiefs turned the ball over three times in Chargers territory in the first half.
Quarterbacks make their money on third down and in the red zone. Critical moment, minimal margin for error in special game situations often separates the good from the great. Patrick Mahomes has saved some of his best moments for situational football. He earns his money in key situations.
Mahomes turned the ball over once in the red zone on the no-look interception to Marcus Kemp, and in the fourth quarter in an attempt to make a play late in the game. It’s uncommon to see those mistakes — and we can have discourse over his role in the throw to Kemp — but a pair of them hurt their chances of coming out of Week 3 with a victory.
This week, the Chiefs had an honest look at the mistakes that led to their fall last week. This is the second straight game that turnovers have played a significant factor in a loss. They will place a priority on protecting the football — and it’ll start with Mahomes. He’ll go back to the basics and lead from the front the same way he has to this point in his young career. “Getting better every single day” isn’t just player speak with him — he often lives it out.
Make no mistake about it — for the remainder of the season, opposing defenses will be prioritizing taking the ball away from the Chiefs. Additional drills trying to strip the ball away will be part of the regiment for teams playing the best team in the AFC. The Chiefs likely won’t have many more losses this season — but the “blueprint” for upsetting them will involve an emphasis on takeaways.
Part of eliminating explosive plays, is long sustained drives and more chances to make a play on the football. That’s what the Chiefs will be up against with a significant emphasis every week for the remainder of the year — even more so than it would have been.
Situational football is crucial — as are fundamentals. Basic execution from the top down will lead to a victory on Sunday — and a chance to get the season back on track.
Here are 7 stats to know, courtesy of our friends at Pro Football Focus.
Chiefs RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire forced six missed tackles against the Chargers, which were the third-most for any player in the NFL last week.
Eagles’ QB Jalen Hurts is averaging 3.04 seconds to throw per attempt this year, which is third-longest of any starting QB in the NFL this season.
Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill is averaging 11.7 yards after catch per reception so far this season, which is third-most in the NFL (min. 7 targets).
Eagles LT Jordan Mailata, who didn’t allow a single pressure in 31 pass-blocking snaps last week, ranks as one of PFF’s Top 5 LT’s so far this year.
Eagles DT Javon Hargrave (92.1) is graded as the second-best pass-rushing interior DL in the NFL - behind only Aaron Donald (92.3).
The Chiefs missed 12 tackles in Week 1 vs. Browns, then 9 tackles in Week 2 vs. Ravens, and last Sunday vs. Chargers - they missed only 2 tackles, per PFF.
There are only two centers in the NFL who haven’t allowed a single pressure so far this season: Creed Humphrey (Chiefs) and Rodney Hudson (Cardinals).
Matchup to watch: Eagles TE’s vs Chiefs LB’s
It’s no secret that the Philadelphia Eagles want to run the ball this season. Through their first three games of the year, the Eagles have rushed on 41% of their snaps — including scrambles — for 5.4 yards per carry. This is despite the Eagles playing from behind by multiple scores for the rough equivalent of ⅓ of their offensive snaps on the season. When the game is close, the Eagles like to operate out of heavy personnel, spending nearly 45% of their snaps in 12 or 13 personnel.
With that kind of heavy personnel usage, the Eagles have seen a fair amount of base defense in 2021, which should continue against the Chiefs. Unfortunately, Steve Spagnuolo’s unit is giving up a whopping 7.1 yards per play and 9.5 yards per pass out of their base defense. Teams have taken advantage of the linebackers in coverage, as Anthony Hitchens, Nick Bolton, and Ben Niemann combine for 28% of the opposition’s targets on the year. While the focus may be on the inability to stop the run in Chiefs base defense, the passing game is where offenses have been able to pick up their chunk yardage against the Chiefs linebacking corps.
While a safety will likely pick up one of Dallas Goedert or Zach Ertz in man/match coverage looks, there’s a high probability the other will draw one of the Chiefs outside linebackers. With Willie Gay Jr. likely to be sidelined another week, this puts the onus on Bolton and Niemann — the Chiefs two lowest defenders in defensive success rate when targeted. That will be a tough ask, as both tight ends present a different, difficult challenge.
Goedert has the vertical speed, explosion, and agility to make life rough on coverage defenders either in-line or from the slot. He leads the team in yards per reception (16.5) and yards per target (12.0) amongst players that have 10 targets or more. The easy solution would be to roll a safety into the box to help defend Goedert — except Ertz is second on the team in both statistics. While Ertz isn’t quite the same athlete he once was, his ability to find space in zone coverage and his route savvy make him a difficult cover for a linebacker.
While this game is close, the Chiefs linebackers will likely see plenty of Goedert and Ertz in coverage. Opponents have gone out of their way thus far to target the second level of the Chiefs defense, and I don’t expect that to stop any time soon. If the linebackers can play physical — colliding hard and diverting the releases of these two tight ends — the Chiefs defense may be able to force Jalen Hurts to drop his eyes or force a lower percentage pass to another receiver. While I believe the Chiefs could find a way to get up early on this Eagles team and allow Spagnuolo to get into his dime defense more regularly, the early stages of the game may hinge on the linebackers in coverage.