The Analytics Preview of SB LVII

The latest newsletter from the sports data scientist of KCSN, Joseph Hefner

The Kansas City Chiefs are Super Bowl bound for the third time in four years. It’s a great time to be a Chiefs fan. I’m too young to remember the Joe Montana playoff run, so pre-Mahomes, the only playoff victory I ever experienced was the Knile Davis kickoff return game vs Houston.

Now? 5 years, 5 AFC Championship games, 3 Super Bowls. One ring, and possibly a second on the way. 35% of the Chiefs playoff appearances have been in the Mahomes era. 58% of the playoff wins. Remember where we used to be, so we never lose sight of just exactly how incredible this era is.

On Sunday, February 12^th, our Kansas City Chiefs will face off against the Philadelphia Eagles. Andy Reid already faced off against his former student in the playoffs. Now he faces his former team. Can he pull it off? He could never with the Super Bowl with the Eagles. Now he looks to win it against them.

 So how is this game going to look? What can Reid scheme up against them? Let’s dive into the numbers and see if we can find some tendencies and weaknesses. Here’s a graphic with the formations used by both KC and PHI over the course of the regular season, along with pass rates and EPA/play in those formations.