The Cost of a Turnover

The latest newsletter from KCSN Sports Data Scientist, Joseph Hefner.

The Chiefs had two turnovers in their loss to the Eagles, both of them inside the red zone. Those were absolutely devastating plays. The first was a fumble by Travis Kelce at the Eagles 9 yard line. A twelve play, 65 yard drive that spanned nearly 6 minutes, gone in a flash. The second was an interception by Mahomes from the Eagles 14 yard line that wiped out a nine play, 56 yard drive.

Together, those two plays lost a total of 30% of win probability. That’s an incredible amount to lose on plays that didn’t happen late in the fourth quarter, when you expect wild win probability swings on big plays. Those turnovers also had the effect of making our offense look much worse than it actually was. Two long, sustained drives, with good offense, ended in zero points.