The Final Game: Chiefs-Eagles Super Bowl Preview
32 teams want to be here, only two remain. One is the Chiefs. What you need to know for Sunday.
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There’s only one more game left in the 2022-2023 NFL season and the Kansas City Chiefs are in it. They’ll play the Philadelphia Eagles in the Super Bowl and the right to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.
Thank you to everyone that has followed along this season. We appreciate your support of KCSN. Here’s what you need to know about the biggest and final game of the season.
Scheme Spotlight
Earlier this week we talked about how the Chiefs run defense and the Eagles rush offense matchup well let’s take a gander at the other side of the ball. The Eagles have one of - if not THE - best pass defense in the NFL while the Chiefs have one of - if not THE - best passing offense in the NFL. It’s geared up to be a great matchup so let’s take a look at.
Eagles Pass Coverage
The Eagles defense starts and ends with a defensive front that has been dominant this year. Each player on the Eagles’ DL is exceptional and deserves their flowers individually but it’s their ability to rush together that puts them over the top. To add another element of teamwork, their secondary chips in when they can.
The Eagles run three main coverages: Man Free (Cover-1), Cover-3 (RIP/LIZ), and Quarter-Quarter-Half (Cover-6). This means that two of their base coverage shells have a single high safety. The reason this works so well for the Eagles is that it forces offenses into being tempted to push the ball vertically. As the ball is forced downfield into what should be favorable matchups, that aforementioned pass rush starts to get home.
Having a smaller group of base coverages and playing them straight-up gives the Eagles another advantage. They can handle pre-snap motion - early or fast - with relative ease. Players are rarely in the wrong position and don’t have to think multiple steps of adjustments because the coverage usually is what the coverage usually looks like.
The Eagles don’t disguise their coverage very much but rather tend to line up and play with their matchups. There will be some players aligned in the box dropping/carrying receivers deep when they do get into their QQH coverage but that’s about as deep as the “confusion” runs. This concern is only minor in most games because the pass rush puts such a short clock on an offense, so the question becomes how an offense can operate fast enough to beat that clock.
The Use of Empty Formations on Offense
For the Chiefs the answer starts with simply identifying the coverage of the Eagles. It’s not the most difficult of tasks but the Eagles make step one very obvious and then it becomes a game of execution. One way teams have had success getting that done is by going empty against the Eagles’. It’s a dangerous proposition given how lethal the pass rush is but it’s also a quick and easy way to the coverage identification needed.
It also puts both sides of the formation in a potential “switch release” position creating natural picks if the Eagles are in man coverage.The Eagles often will resort to Cover-3 (or a Flood call) vs Empty when the three WR side of the field has condensed splits. When the three WR side of the formation has wide splits, they prefer to run Cover-1. This can allow the Chiefs offense a layer of control over what coverage the Eagles’ prefer to run on a given down.
Another benefit to going into empty for an offense is that it stresses the Eagles’ defense where it is the weakest, right up the middle. Their linebackers and safeties are the weakness in coverage so spreading everything out sideline to sideline is going to put those players in a bind. It doesn’t matter if it’s zone coverage or in man coverage, they will have more space to defend with the offense starting out so spread out.
It will also make it harder and more telegraphed to have two sets of eyes on a specific player, IE Travis Kelce. The Eagles can certainly still make adjustments and keep two defenders near Kelce but it gets more difficult vs empty formations.
Matchup to Watch: Steve Spagnuolo vs. History
There have been lots of great coaches with long championship pedigrees. Head coaches like Bill Belichick, Vince Lombardi, Bill Parcells, Jimmy Johnson and Chuck Noll stick out amongst their peers for sustained success and multiple championship rings. Andy Reid stands to enter that territory with his second Super Bowl victory in four years with a win on Sunday. He will rightfully deserve every bit of praise that comes his way with a win, as he’ll enter some rarefied air as just one of 14 head coaches in NFL history to win multiple Super Bowls.
However, Steve Spagnuolo’s story is flying a bit under the radar. In an era of offensive dominance, Spagnuolo has a chance to win his third Super Bowl ring as a defensive coordinator – tying Romeo Crennel for the league lead during the modern era. Crennel’s defenses were viewed as the best in the league for multiple teams during the 2000’s, and his ability (with Belichick) to seal the deal when it mattered put him on a shortlist for Hall of Fame consideration.
Spagnuolo has a chance to equal that with an impressive postseason resume of his own. His legendary 2007 Super Bowl win will be the hallmark of his career, but his consistent turnaround of the Chiefs defense has earned him the moniker – and notoriety – of “Playoff Spags”. His 2019 and 2020 groups were at their best in the postseason, sending some excellent offenses home for the year with below-average performances. His ability to find small schematic advantages in the regular season turns to an almost-superhuman ability to make the opposition play wrong-handed in the playoffs.
Year over year, Spagnuolo’s group has improved to finish the year and be at its best when it matters. This season has been no different, holding the opposition to just 19.9 points a game, 5.8 yards per pass attempt, and allowing just 11 passing touchdowns in the final 7 games of the season, including the playoffs. That’s an impressive feat considering the amount of turnover the team underwent on the defensive side of the ball this offseason. A step back could be expected from this group, and yet they’re playing like one of Spagnuolo’s best defenses in Kansas City to close out the season.
Spagnuolo is already going to go down in the lore of the NFL as the coordinator that dethroned perfection, but a win this weekend could vault him into the category of one of the NFL’s best all-time defensive coordinators – and rightfully so. While regular season Spagnuolo may not be everyone’s cup of tea, his postseason counterpart is Hall of Fame worthy. If Playoff Spags puts together yet another epic performance in the Super Bowl against the Philadelphia Eagles this Sunday, there might be more than just Chiefs’ fans pounding the table for him to be considered amongst the league’s best.
#MVPat Has More History to Deal With
Last night, Patrick Mahomes was unable to be present to accept his award for the league’s highest on-field honor — NFL MVP.
Of course, Mahomes would trade the trophy he earned on Thursday in for the one up for grabs on Sunday without question. History isn’t on the MVP’s side.
The last nine NFL MVP winners to play in the Super Bowl have fallen short of the ultimate goal. Some big names have been unable to follow a tremendous season by ending on a high note.
We’re just days from the season concluding, but it’s worth remembering how far this team has come this year. They’ve exceeded about every expectation so far this season despite making massive changes to their personnel. Out was Tyreek Hill, in a large group of rookies. The AFC loaded up to try and stop them. None of it mattered. The team — and the quarterback — rose above it all.
It’s already been an incredible season. A win on Sunday would be a massive part of Mahomes’ legacy. And the stage is set for it. Nine straight MVPs haven’t won the Super Bowl? Sounds like something we’ve seen Mahomes defy before.
There’s a chance there are more Super Bowls beyond this one to win, but pulling this out in Arizona will be hard for potential future Super Bowls to top when we look back 20 years from now. Major roster overhaul, a brutal schedule against some elite opponents, and Mahomes closing the season on a high ankle sprain to carry his team to victory.
Getting this version of the Chiefs to the finish line is remarkable. Not to discredit the men in the locker room, but so much changed and nothing mattered — the other wordly quarterback was able to lead his team beyond it.
This is Mahomes’ team even more than it’s ever been. He’s setting standards, his voice grows louder, and his impact is obvious on the growth of the organization over the last twelve months. The Chiefs and their quarterback proved that they can withstand changes that the NFL necessitates to sustain success, and the MVP was a big piece of it.
Mahomes accepted the award from Kurt Warner — the last reigning NFL MVP (1999) to win the Super Bowl. He’s also the first of nine straight MVPs to lose the Super Bowl. Hopefully that puts some kind of end cap on the streak — the right guy to do it is playing on Sunday.
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