Threats to the Threepeat: Bills

The latest newsletter from KCSN Sports Data Scientist, Joseph Hefner

Last week, we finished the division rivals portion of this rivals preview series, and found that none of our division rivals are, in fact, our rivals this year. Next up, I’ll be previewing the three AFC teams that have the best Super Bowl odds, after us. Chiefs have the best overall odds at +500, slightly edging out the 49ers at +600.

As of today, those three teams are, in order, the Ravens (+1,000), Bengals (+1,300), and Bills (+1,500). Reading those odds is pretty easy, the number in all of these cases indicates that if you bet $100 on any of those teams, you would win their odds number back. So if you dropped $100 on the Chiefs to win it all, you would win back $500. Converting those odds into percentages gives the Chiefs a 16.6% chance to win the Super Bowl, compared to a 6.25% chance by the Bills, who are the subject of today’s preview.

Buffalo had quite an exciting 2023 season. They started with a wild loss to the Jets, who lost their starting quarterback (Aaron Rodgers) to injury after only four snaps. They followed that up with three very impressive wins, in which they outscored their opponents 123-33. That is an absolutely insane point differential, a stat that the Bills have consistently been at the top of the league for the past several years.